Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 25.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 82.9

Total Profit: -17.2

Valero Texas Open

01/04/2021 - 04/04/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Jordan Spieth 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.99% 2.17% -3.82% 1
2 USA Tony Finau 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.58% 3.39% -1.19% MC
3 USA Scottie Scheffler 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.58% 2.18% -2.4% T54
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.71% 2.08% -1.63% T30
5 MEX Abraham Ancer 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.39% 2.14% -1.24% T23
6 CAN Corey Conners 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3% 2.61% -0.39% T14
7 USA Ryan Palmer 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.51% 2.41% -0.1% T17
8 USA Charley Hoffman 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.51% 1.16% -1.35% 2
9 KOR Siwoo Kim 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.29% 1.8% -0.49% T23
10 USA Cameron Tringale 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.16% 2.48% 0.31% T9 9.65
11 USA Chris Kirk 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 2.35% 0.45% T6 (tied w/3) 8.48 +38.2
12 USA Brendan Steele 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 1.59% -0.31% 77
13 AUS Cameron Davis 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.69% 0.87% -0.83% T69
14 USA Sam Burns 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 1.61% 0.08% MC 6.81
15 USA Zach Johnson 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 1.18% -0.34% MC
16 USA Lanto Griffin 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.39% 1.35% -0.04% T34
17 USA Keegan Bradley 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 1% -0.4% T23
18 USA Matt Kuchar 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% 0.92% -0.36% T12
19 RSA Branden Grace 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.25% 0.09% T23 5.19
20 CAN Adam Hadwin 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.13% -0.03% T23
21 USA Harold Varner III 66 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 0.94% -0.23% MC
22 USA Charles Howell III 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 0.82% -0.34% MC
23 USA Aaron Wise 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.1% 1.12% 0.03% T44 4.9
24 USA Joel Dahmen 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.1% 1.11% 0.01% 74 4.9
25 USA Rickie Fowler 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.1% 0.72% -0.38% T17
26 USA Ryan Moore 75 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.03% 0.38% -0.65% 76
27 USA Doug Ghim 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.38% 0.42% T44 4.29
28 USA Andrew Putnam 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.19% 0.23% MC 4.29
29 RSA Erik van Rooyen 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.13% 0.17% T14 4.29
30 USA John Huh 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.05% 0.09% T69 4.29
31 USA Denny McCarthy 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 1.01% 0.04% T34 4.29
32 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.79% -0.17% MC
33 USA Harry Higgs 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.64% -0.32% MC
34 USA Sam Ryder 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.55% -0.41% MC
35 USA Adam Long 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 1.02% 0.16% MC 3.82
36 AUT Sepp Straka 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 0.94% 0.08% T67 3.82
37 ENG Danny Willett 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% 0.91% 0.05% MC 3.82
38 USA Gary Woodland 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.86% 0.42% -0.44% T6
39 ENG Matt Wallace 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.23% 0.46% 3 3.44 +44.7
40 USA Patton Kizzire 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.22% 0.45% T9 3.44
41 USA Matthew NeSmith 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1% 0.22% T34 3.44
42 USA Lucas Glover 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 0.61% -0.16% 4
43 SCO Russell Knox 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.7% 0.78% 0.08% MC 3.13
44 KOR Byeong Hun An 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.69% -0.01% MC
45 USA Phil Mickelson 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.45% -0.25% MC
46 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 1.41% 0.79% MC 2.76
47 USA Tom Hoge 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.15% 0.53% T12 2.76
48 SCO Martin Laird 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.12% 0.5% T30 2.76
49 USA Cameron Champ 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.83% 0.21% T34 2.76
50 USA Luke List 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.74% 0.12% T17 2.76
51 USA Chase Seiffert 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% 0.63% 0.01% T44
52 USA Kevin Chappell 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.41% -0.21% MC
53 CAN Nick Taylor 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.99% 0.47% T59
54 USA Brice Garnett 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.88% 0.37% MC
55 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.82% 0.3% T23
56 USA Jim Furyk 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.74% 0.23% MC
57 SWE Henrik Norlander 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.64% 0.13% MC
58 USA William Gordon 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.49% -0.03% 78
59 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.4% -0.11% MC
60 USA Greyson Sigg 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.37% -0.14% T59
61 USA Brandon Hagy 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.33% -0.18% T17
62 USA Doc Redman 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.23% -0.28% T44
63 NIR Graeme McDowell 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.39% -0.09% T54
64 CAN Roger Sloan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.96% 0.51% MC
65 USA Peter Malnati 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.91% 0.47% MC
66 USA Bo Hoag 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.82% 0.37% MC
67 AUS Cameron Percy 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.67% 0.22% DQ
68 USA Nate Lashley 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.58% 0.14% MC
69 ENG Tom Lewis 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.56% 0.12% T54
70 SVK Rory Sabbatini 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.45% 0.01% T30
71 USA Adam Schenk 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.34% -0.1% MC
72 RSA Charl Schwartzel 175 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.33% -0.11% T69
73 USA Ben Martin 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.3% -0.15% T34
74 PUR Rafael Campos 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.71% 0.32% T34
75 USA Pat Perez 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.39% 0.01% T67
76 USA Chesson Hadley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.39% 0% T23
77 USA Brian Stuard 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.33% -0.01% MC
78 USA Scott Stallings 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.32% -0.03% T59
79 USA Austin Eckroat 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 1.66% 1.35% MC
80 USA Kyle Stanley 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.65% 0.34% T14
81 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.62% 0.3% T44
82 USA Andrew Landry 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.61% 0.3% MC
83 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.46% 0.15% T17
84 NZL Danny Lee 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.4% 0.08% WD
85 USA Bronson Burgoon 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.39% 0.08% MC
86 USA Joseph Bramlett 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.36% 0.05% T34
87 USA Akshay Bhatia 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.35% 0.04% MC
88 USA Brandt Snedeker 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.34% 0.03% T6
89 USA Jason Dufner 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.28% -0.03% MC
90 USA Ryan Armour 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.52% 0.26% MC
91 USA Robby Shelton 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.5% 0.24% MC
92 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.48% 0.22% T44
93 USA Wesley Bryan 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.33% 0.07% MC
94 USA J.B. Holmes 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.19% -0.07% MC
95 USA Kramer Hickok 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.83% 0.6% MC
96 IRL Padraig Harrington 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.77% 0.54% T69
97 CAN Michael Gligic 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.56% 0.33% MC
98 USA Vincent Whaley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.48% 0.26% T34
99 USA Troy Merritt 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.4% 0.18% T34
100 USA Scott Harrington 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.36% 0.13% MC
101 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.35% 0.13% 75
102 SWE Henrik Stenson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% MC
103 USA Beau Hossler 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.3% 0.08% T69
104 USA Scott Brown 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.29% 0.07% MC
105 USA Brian Gay 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.97% 0.77% MC
106 COL Camilo Villegas 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.57% 0.37% T17
107 USA Vaughn Taylor 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.45% 0.26% T44
108 USA Ryan Brehm 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.3% 0.11% MC
109 CAN David Hearn 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.25% 0.05% MC
110 IND Anirban Lahiri 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.24% 0.04% 5
111 USA Austin Cook 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.64% 0.48% MC
112 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.57% 0.41% MC
113 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.25% MC
114 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.24% MC
115 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.36% 0.2% MC
116 USA Nick Watney 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.25% 0.1% MC
117 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.24% 0.09% T59
118 USA Hank Lebioda 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.07% MC
119 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.22% 0.07% MC
120 USA J.J Spaun 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.11% -0.04% MC
121 USA D.J. Trahan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.11% -0.05% T59
122 ENG Luke Donald 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.2% 0.07% MC
123 CHN Zhang Xinjun 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.19% 0.07% MC
124 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% T59
125 USA Michael Kim 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% MC
126 KOR K.J. Choi 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.14% 0.01% T30
127 USA Sean O'Hair 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% MC
128 USA Kelly Kraft 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% T44
129 KOR Seungyul Noh 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.12% 0.02% T54
130 USA Bo Van Pelt 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.14% T34
131 USA Davis Love III 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.05% MC
132 USA Carlos Sainz Jr 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.12% 0.07% MC
133 USA Hunter Mahan 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.22% 0.18% MC
134 USA Martin Trainer 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.17% T44
135 USA Kevin Stadler 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.16% 0.12% T54
136 USA D.A. Points 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.11% 0.07% MC
137 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T59
138 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
139 USA Sam Fidone 0% 0% 0% 0% T44
140 USA Tain Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T59
141 USA J.J. Killeen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 USA McClure Meissner 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 USA Sam Bennett 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Patrick Grimes 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 25.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 61% 24.8%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.7%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 67.7% 30.2%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 67.7% 30.2%
5 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 68.3% 30.5%
6 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 71.4% 33.1%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 102.1% 36.5%
8 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 55.7% 41.9%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 70.1% 42.6%
10 VBet 5 @ 1/4 60.1% 42.9%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 60.3% 43.1%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 59.1% 45.1%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59.9% 45.7%
14 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 66.9% 49%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 65.9% 51.4%
16 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 70.6% 52.3%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 70.6% 52.3%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 70.6% 52.3%
19 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 70.6% 52.3%