Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 36.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 231.8

Total Profit: +131.7

Waste Management Phoenix Open

04/02/2021 - 07/02/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.04% 3.64% -6.4% T13
2 USA Justin Thomas 8 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.81% 3.09% -4.72% T13
3 USA Xander Schauffele 11 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.86% 3.88% -1.97% T2
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.86% 2.09% -3.76% T13
5 USA Webb Simpson 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 3.37% -0.77% T42
6 USA Daniel Berger 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.35% 2.46% -0.89% MC
7 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.06% 2.31% -0.74% T42
8 USA Harris English 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 4.11% 1.69% MC 10.16
9 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.07% 1.98% -0.09% T17 8.66
10 USA Brooks Koepka 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.7% -0.01% 1 7.18 +179.5
11 USA Will Zalatoris 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.12% -0.59% T17
12 USA Rickie Fowler 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 0.53% -1.18% MC
13 USA Ryan Palmer 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 2.15% 0.62% T42 6.4
14 USA Scottie Scheffler 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 1.72% 0.2% T7 (tied w/3) 6.4 +21.3
15 USA Bubba Watson 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 1.21% -0.31% T22
16 USA Billy Horschel 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 2.24% 0.86% T53 5.78
17 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.17% -0.2% T11
18 USA Gary Woodland 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 0.36% -1.02% MC
19 USA Matthew Wolff 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.25% 1.37% 0.12% T36 5.26
20 USA Russell Henley 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 2.38% 1.23% T30 4.83
21 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.05% 1.72% 0.67% T50 4.4
22 CAN Corey Conners 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 1.19% 0.2% T17 4.15
23 USA Sam Burns 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.87% -0.12% T22
24 USA Brian Harman 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.68% 0.81% T36 3.64
25 MEX Carlos Ortiz 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.43% 0.56% T4 (tied w/3) 3.64 +30.9
26 USA Brendan Steele 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.62% -0.24% T30
27 USA Max Homa 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 0.48% -0.39% T42
28 AUS Jason Day 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.42% -0.45% MC
29 SWE Henrik Norlander 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.9% 0.13% T22 3.24
30 USA Cameron Champ 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.79% 0.02% MC 3.24
31 KOR Byeong Hun An 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.77% 0.74% -0.03% T53 3.24
32 USA Chris Kirk 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 1.63% 0.94% MC 2.92
33 USA Talor Gooch 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.87% 0.17% MC 2.92
34 USA Matt Kuchar 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.31% -0.38% T42
35 CAN Adam Hadwin 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.53% -0.11% T50
36 USA Zach Johnson 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.96% 1.41% T42 2.34
37 USA Brendon Todd 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1% 0.44% T22 2.34
38 SVK Rory Sabbatini 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.92% 0.36% MC 2.34
39 USA Cameron Tringale 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.74% 0.18% T17 2.34
40 ARG Emiliano Grillo 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.71% 0.15% T22 2.34
41 USA John Huh 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.63% 0.08% MC 2.34
42 SCO Russell Knox 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.42% -0.14% T53
43 USA Luke List 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.36% -0.2% T30
44 USA Jordan Spieth 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.29% -0.27% T4
45 USA James Hahn 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.14% 0.68% 10
46 USA Adam Long 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.05% 0.58% MC
47 USA Michael Thompson 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.92% 0.46% MC
48 SCO Martin Laird 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.86% 0.4% MC
49 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.73% 0.26% T30
50 USA Wyndham Clark 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.71% 0.25% T36
51 USA JT Poston 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.7% 0.24% T11
52 USA Aaron Wise 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.69% 0.22% 66
53 USA Kevin Streelman 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% T22
54 AUT Sepp Straka 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.62% 0.15% MC
55 USA Patton Kizzire 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.61% 0.14% T50
56 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.59% 0.13% MC
57 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.53% 0.06% MC
58 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.45% -0.01% MC
59 USA Kyle Stanley 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.41% -0.06% T36
60 RSA Charl Schwartzel 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.31% -0.16% MC
61 USA Chez Reavie 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.25% -0.21% MC
62 USA Ryan Moore 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.11% -0.36% MC
63 USA Stewart Cink 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.99% 0.59% T58
64 USA Charley Hoffman 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.76% 0.36% MC
65 CAN Nick Taylor 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.53% 0.13% MC
66 USA Lucas Glover 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.68% 0.33% T58
67 USA Harry Higgs 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.56% 0.21% MC
68 USA Keegan Bradley 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.53% 0.18% T22
69 USA Bo Hoag 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.52% 0.17% T36
70 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.45% 0.1% T13
71 USA Doc Redman 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.05% MC
72 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.58% 0.3% T30
73 USA Tom Hoge 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.51% 0.23% MC
74 USA Denny McCarthy 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.44% 0.16% MC
75 USA Austin Cook 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% MC
76 USA Matthew NeSmith 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.41% 0.13% T7
77 USA Richy Werenski 250 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.41% 0.13% T22
78 USA Patrick Rodgers 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% MC
79 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.35% 0.07% MC
80 ENG Tom Lewis 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03% MC
81 USA Pat Perez 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
82 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.24% -0.04% 57
83 USA Nick Hardy 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 1.21% 0.98% T42
84 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.65% 0.41% MC
85 USA Adam Schenk 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.47% 0.23% MC
86 TPE C.T. Pan 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% MC
87 USA Brian Stuard 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.45% 0.22% T58
88 USA Ryan Armour 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.15% MC
89 USA Scott Stallings 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.31% 0.07% T36
90 NZL Danny Lee 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.29% 0.06% MC
91 USA Andrew Putnam 300 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.19% -0.04% T7
92 USA Vaughn Taylor 300 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.16% -0.08% MC
93 USA J.B. Holmes 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.1% -0.13% MC
94 IRL Padraig Harrington 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.95% 0.75% MC
95 USA Robby Shelton 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.52% 0.32% T53
96 USA Hudson Swafford 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% MC
97 USA William Gordon 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.2% 0% MC
98 USA Nate Lashley 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.42% 0.25% T17
99 USA Beau Hossler 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.02% MC
100 CHN Zhang Xinjun 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.01% 65
101 USA Robert Streb 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.69% 0.55% MC
102 USA Brian Gay 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.57% 0.43% MC
103 USA John Augenstein 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.49% 0.35% MC
104 USA Brice Garnett 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.46% 0.32% MC
105 USA Steve Stricker 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.45% 0.31% T4
106 USA Troy Merritt 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.41% 0.27% MC
107 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% T2
108 COL Camilo Villegas 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.32% 0.18% MC
109 USA Scott Brown 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% MC
110 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% 64
111 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
112 USA Jason Dufner 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% MC
113 USA Jamie Lovemark 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% MC
114 USA Davis Riley 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.04% T58
115 USA Vincent Whaley 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.24% 0.12% MC
116 USA Kevin Tway 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.19% 0.07% MC
117 ENG Luke Donald 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.09% -0.02% MC
118 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% 63
119 USA Scott Harrington 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.17% 0.08% MC
120 USA Grayson Murray 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.18% 0.11% T42
121 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.08% MC
122 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.05% T58
123 USA William McGirt 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
124 USA Jerry Kelly 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
125 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% MC
126 USA Bo Van Pelt 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.11% T30
127 USA Kevin Stadler 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.06% MC
128 USA Mark Anguiano 1500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.1% 0.05% MC
129 USA Jesse Mueller 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.1% 0.06% MC
130 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 USA Kelly Kraft 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 36.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 52.7% 18.7%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 56.9% 22%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.5%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.5%
5 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 61.8% 25.8%
6 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 67.7% 30.4%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 31.4%
8 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 34.1%
9 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 52% 35.8%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 62.3% 36.3%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 54.6% 41.1%
12 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 59.4% 42.4%
13 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 59.4% 42.4%
14 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 59.5% 42.5%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 59.5% 42.5%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.3% 42.8%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 60% 46%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60% 46.1%