Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 239.5

Total Profit: +139.4

Sony Open in Hawaii

14/01/2021 - 17/01/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Webb Simpson 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.47% 2.71% -2.76% T4
2 USA Harris English 14 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.74% 4.04% -0.7% T32
3 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.74% 3.04% -1.7% T7
4 USA Daniel Berger 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.18% 3% -1.19% T7
5 KOR Sungjae Im 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.18% 2.32% -1.86% T56
6 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.39% 2.38% -1.01% T19
7 CHI Joaquin Niemann 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.74% 3.35% 0.61% T2 (tied w/2) 11.84 +35.5
8 MEX Abraham Ancer 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.45% 2.64% 0.18% MC 10.62
9 USA Kevin Kisner 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.45% 2.58% 0.13% T32 10.62
10 AUS Cameron Smith 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.45% 2.48% 0.02% T62 10.62
11 USA Russell Henley 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.29% 2.3% 0% T11 9.93
12 USA Ryan Palmer 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.29% 2.24% -0.06% T41
13 AUS Adam Scott 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.09% 1.32% -0.77% T41
14 USA Billy Horschel 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.98% 2.69% 0.71% T7 (tied w/4) 8.55 +17.1
15 USA Zach Johnson 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 1.64% -0.09% T62
16 USA Lanto Griffin 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 1.63% -0.11% T41
17 USA Brendon Todd 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 1.41% -0.32% T41
18 ESP Sergio Garcia 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 1.11% -0.62% T47
19 USA Matt Kuchar 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.73% 0.67% -1.07% MC
20 USA Jason Kokrak 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 2.88% 1.49% T56 6.04
21 USA Charles Howell III 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.18% -0.21% T19
22 ARG Emiliano Grillo 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.12% -0.27% T47
23 USA Brian Harman 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.11% -0.28% T56
24 AUS Marc Leishman 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.27% 0.91% -0.36% T4
25 USA Kevin Na 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.17% 1.21% 0.05% 1 5.05 +186.8
26 RSA Erik van Rooyen 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1% -0.07% MC
27 MEX Carlos Ortiz 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 1.17% 0.17% T14 4.34
28 KOR Siwoo Kim 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.81% -0.19% T25
29 USA Talor Gooch 80 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.94% 0.07% MC 3.8
30 USA Patton Kizzire 80 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.65% -0.23% T7
31 USA Keegan Bradley 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.65% -0.23% MC
32 USA Chez Reavie 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.6% -0.28% T67
33 SCO Russell Knox 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.56% -0.32% MC
34 USA Brandt Snedeker 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.5% -0.38% MC
35 USA Matthew NeSmith 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.58% -0.21% MC
36 AUS Cameron Davis 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.54% -0.25% 31
37 USA Tom Hoge 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.52% -0.26% MC
38 USA JT Poston 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.79% 0.09% MC 3.05
39 SVK Rory Sabbatini 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.72% 0.02% MC 3.05
40 USA Scott Piercy 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.5% -0.21% MC
41 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.48% -0.22% MC
42 USA Mackenzie Hughes 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 1.69% 1.05% T19 2.78
43 USA Stewart Cink 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.24% 0.68% T19 2.45
44 USA James Hahn 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.72% 0.16% T41 2.45
45 AUT Sepp Straka 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 0.63% 0.07% T25 2.45
46 USA Kyle Stanley 125 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.57% 0.01% MC 2.45
47 USA Michael Thompson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.18% 0.71% T25
48 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.72% 0.25% T11
49 USA Peter Malnati 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.71% 0.24% T14
50 USA Chris Kirk 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.66% 0.19% T2
51 TPE C.T. Pan 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.62% 0.15% MC
52 USA Charley Hoffman 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.6% 0.13% T14
53 USA Brian Gay 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.52% 0.05% 72
54 USA Jim Furyk 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.33% -0.14% T47
55 JPN Takumi Kanaya 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.3% -0.17% MC
56 SWE Henrik Norlander 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.27% -0.2% MC
57 USA Richy Werenski 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.78% 0.38% MC
58 USA Doug Ghim 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.77% 0.37% MC
59 USA Hudson Swafford 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.71% 0.31% T25
60 CAN Nick Taylor 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.52% 0.12% T11
61 USA Austin Cook 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.33% -0.07% T47
62 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.71% 0.36% MC
63 USA Mark Hubbard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.64% 0.28% T32
64 USA Harry Higgs 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.57% 0.22% T32
65 USA Bo Hoag 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.5% 0.15% MC
66 USA Brice Garnett 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.46% 0.11% T32
67 USA Keith Mitchell 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.46% 0.1% T14
68 USA Brendan Steele 200 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.44% 0.08% T4
69 NZL Danny Lee 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.38% 0.03% MC
70 USA Pat Perez 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.29% -0.06% T32
71 USA Brian Stuard 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.28% -0.07% T47
72 USA Robert Streb 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.79% 0.51% T67
73 USA Andrew Landry 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.55% 0.27% MC
74 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.54% 0.26% MC
75 IND Anirban Lahiri 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.5% 0.21% T62
76 USA Troy Merritt 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.5% 0.21% T56
77 CHN Zhang Xinjun 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.49% 0.21% MC
78 USA Luke List 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.34% 0.06% MC
79 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% MC
80 USA William Gordon 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.24% -0.04% MC
81 USA Kramer Hickok 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.21% -0.07% T19
82 USA Vaughn Taylor 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.18% -0.11% T25
83 USA Hank Lebioda 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.5% 0.27% MC
84 IRL Seamus Power 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% MC
85 CAN Roger Sloan 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% MC
86 RSA MJ Daffue 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.04% MC
87 USA Ted Potter-jr 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.12% -0.12% MC
88 USA Jim Herman 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 1.26% 1.06% T32
89 USA Wesley Bryan 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% T32
90 USA Tyler McCumber 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.34% 0.13% MC
91 USA Bronson Burgoon 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.11% MC
92 USA Ryan Armour 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.28% 0.07% T32
93 USA Rob Oppenheim 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.27% 0.07% MC
94 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.26% 0.06% MC
95 USA J.J Spaun 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.22% 0.02% MC
96 AUS Aaron Baddeley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.21% 0.01% T41
97 USA Bill Haas 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% MC
98 USA Jimmy Walker 350 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% MC
99 USA Nick Hardy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.12% -0.09% T14
100 USA Chris Baker 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.36% 0.18% T56
101 USA Robby Shelton 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T25
102 USA Mark Anderson 400 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.13% -0.05% MC
103 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.49% 0.35% T56
104 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.25% T19
105 CAN Michael Gligic 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.38% 0.23% MC
106 ARG Fabian Gomez 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% MC
107 CAN David Hearn 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
108 USA D.J. Trahan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
109 USA Scott Brown 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% T47
110 USA Sam Ryder 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
111 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
112 USA Chase Seiffert 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% MC
113 USA Nick Watney 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.15% 0.01% MC
114 USA Jamie Lovemark 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.13% -0.01% T67
115 USA Grayson Murray 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.13% -0.01% MC
116 USA Jerry Kelly 500 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.03% 73
117 JPN Ryosuke Kinoshita 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.03% T67
118 NZL Tim Wilkinson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.04% MC
119 USA Brandon Hagy 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.28% 0.16% MC
120 USA Kevin Tway 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% MC
121 ENG Benjamin Taylor 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.12% 0% MC
122 KOR K.J. Choi 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.24% 0.14% 71
123 KOR Inhoi Hur 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.12% 0.02% MC
124 USA William McGirt 750 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.11% 0.02% MC
125 CAN Mike Weir 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.68% 0.61% T47
126 USA Davis Love III 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
127 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
128 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% T47
129 PUR Rafael Campos 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
130 USA Michael Gellerman 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.05% MC
131 USA Andres Gonzales 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% MC
132 KOR Y.E. Yang 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% MC
133 JPN Jinichiro Kozuma 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% MC
134 FIJ Vijay Singh 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
135 USA Parker McLachlin 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
136 USA Matt Every 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.03% MC
137 USA Bo Van Pelt 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% MC
138 USA Michael Kim 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% T65
139 USA Martin Trainer 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.14% 0.1% T47
140 USA Eric Dugas 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.12% 0.09% MC
141 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T65
143 USA Shane Bertsch 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Evan Kawai 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 51.9% 17.6%
2 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 55.6% 20.5%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 56.4% 21.2%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 61.1% 24.8%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 61.1% 24.8%
6 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 62.4% 25.9%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 42% 26.7%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 26.8%
9 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 28.5%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57% 31.5%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 48.6% 32.6%
12 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 49.5% 36.3%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.3% 37%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 51% 37.7%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 54.7% 38%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 54.7% 38%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 54.7% 38%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 54.7% 38%
19 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 62.7% 48.3%