Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 78.8

Total Profit: -21.3

Italian Open

22/10/2020 - 25/10/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 10 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.98% 3.46% -3.52% T48
2 GER Martin Kaymer 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.91% 4.99% -0.92% T5
3 FRA Victor Perez 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.91% 2.71% -3.19% MC
4 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.52% 2.12% -2.39% T16
5 ENG Lee Westwood 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.04% 2.96% -1.08% T30
6 ENG Jordan L Smith 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.34% 2.03% -1.31% MC
7 ESP Adria Arnaus 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.95% 1.52% -1.43% T5
8 ITA Renato Paratore 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.65% 3.3% 0.65% T65 11.47
9 ESP Adrian Otaegui 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.65% 2.37% -0.28% T22
10 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.65% 1.45% -1.2% T30
11 RSA Wilco Nienaber 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.65% 1.34% -1.31% MC
12 NED Joost Luiten 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.65% 0.67% -1.98% T10
13 ENG Matthew Jordan 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.26% 1.62% -0.64% T30
14 ENG Laurie Canter 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 2.63% 0.96% T2 (tied w/2) 7.24 +36.2
15 ENG David Horsey 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 1.93% 0.26% T48 7.24
16 ENG Chris Paisley 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.67% 1.72% 0.05% T39 7.24
17 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 0.76% -0.91% MC
18 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.51% 1.22% -0.28% T10
19 ITA Guido Migliozzi 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.51% 0.61% -0.9% T22
20 ESP Jorge Campillo 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.37% 1.79% 0.41% T48 5.94
21 ENG Marcus Armitage 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.26% 1.86% 0.6% T10 5.46
22 USA Johannes Veerman 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.26% 1.47% 0.21% T46 5.46
23 FRA Adrien Saddier 60 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.26% 1.14% -0.12% MC
24 WAL Jamie Donaldson 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.26% 1.05% -0.21% T39
25 AUS Jason Scrivener 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.8% 0.65% MC 4.97
26 SCO Marc Warren 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 1.28% 0.14% T39 4.97
27 NED Wil Besseling 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.2% 0.05% T16 4.97
28 SCO Scott Jamieson 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 0.9% -0.25% T48
29 ENG Jack Senior 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.01% 0.46% -0.55% T63
30 ENG Steven Brown 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.81% 0.86% MC 4.11
31 ENG Richard Bland 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.27% 0.32% T16 4.11
32 AUS Maverick Antcliff 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 1.15% 0.2% T55 4.11
33 RSA Dean Burmester 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 0.97% 0.03% T5
34 SWE Rikard Karlberg 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 0.77% -0.18% MC
35 FRA Matthieu Pavon 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.15% 0.3% T30 3.66
36 POL Adrian Meronk 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 0.61% -0.24% T22
37 ZIM Scott Vincent 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.02% 0.26% MC 3.3
38 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.74% -0.02% T2
39 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.25% 0.64% T55 2.64
40 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.08% 0.47% MC 2.64
41 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.95% 0.34% MC 2.64
42 GER Sebastian Heisele 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.85% 0.24% 4 2.64 +42.6
43 FRA Clement Sordet 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.78% 0.17% MC 2.64
44 ENG Matthew Baldwin 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.71% 0.1% MC 2.64
45 ESP Nacho Elvira 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.62% 0.01% MC
46 RSA Bryce Easton 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.57% -0.04% T16
47 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.41% -0.2% MC
48 SWE Oscar Lengden 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.24% 0.73% T30
49 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.81% 0.3% T5
50 RSA Louis de Jager 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.64% 0.13% T22
51 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.49% -0.02% MC
52 GER Hurly Long 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.47% -0.04% T16
53 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.35% -0.12% T39
54 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.94% 0.51% MC
55 NED Darius Van Driel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.76% 0.32% T30
56 ENG Toby Tree 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.64% 0.2% T46
57 ENG David Coupland 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.53% 0.1% T55
58 ITA Francesco Laporta 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.33% -0.11% T30
59 CAN Aaron Cockerill 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.97% 0.59% T22
60 SWE Niklas Lemke 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.49% 0.1% T30
61 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.41% 0.03% MC
62 ESP Alejandro Canizares 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.37% -0.02% MC
63 ITA Matteo Manassero 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.3% -0.08% MC
64 SWE Jens Fahrbring 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.86% 0.52% T48
65 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.48% 0.14% T39
66 ITA Nino Bertasio 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.33% -0.01% MC
67 ENG Dale Whitnell 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.85% 0.55% T22
68 NED Daan Huizing 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.67% 0.37% MC
69 ENG Ben Evans 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.5% 0.2% MC
70 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.4% 0.09% MC
71 GER Marcel Schneider 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 1.06% 0.8% T39
72 FRA Joel Stalter 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.69% 0.44% T22
73 FRA Robin Roussel 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.66% 0.4% T53
74 ESP Carlos Pigem 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.56% 0.31% MC
75 NED Lars Van Meijel 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.35% 0.09% T53
76 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.31% 0.06% MC
77 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.31% 0.05% MC
78 RSA JC Ritchie 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.3% 0.05% MC
79 NIR Cormac Sharvin 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.63% 0.41% T60
80 SCO David Drysdale 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.44% 0.22% MC
81 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.38% 0.16% MC
82 POR Ricardo Santos 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.36% 0.14% MC
83 FRA Damien Perrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.32% 0.1% T10
84 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.5% 0.31% T63
85 FRA Julien Quesne 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.13% T14
86 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% T5
87 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 1.03% 0.88% WD
88 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% MC
89 SWE Joel Sjoholm 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.51% 0.36% T22
90 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.47% 0.31% MC
91 IMN Tom Gandy 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% MC
92 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.18% T60
93 KOR Yikeun Chang 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T39
94 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T60
95 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
96 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T55
97 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 1.04% 0.91% T55
98 ENG Steven Tiley 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.53% 0.4% T65
99 IRL Gavin Moynihan 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.34% 0.22% MC
100 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.63% 0.53% 1
101 ITA Federico Maccario 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% T30
102 ITA Aron Zemmer 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% MC
103 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.33% 0.25% WD
104 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% T14
105 ITA Andrea Saracino 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.23% MC
106 ITA Giulio Castagnara 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.23% MC
107 ITA Stefano Mazzoli 1000 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.23% MC
108 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.32% 0.27% MC
109 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
110 SCO Craig Howie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
111 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
112 ITA Andrea Romano(June2000) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
113 ITA Tommaso Perrino 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 24.6%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 27.6%
3 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 53.9% 29.1%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 41.9% 29.5%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 55.4% 30.2%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.3% 31.1%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.9% 31.4%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.9% 32%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 51.9% 35.6%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 52.2% 35.9%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 50% 36.8%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 37.2%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60% 45.9%