Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 33.7

Total Profit: -66.5

Omega Dubai Desert Classic

23/01/2020 - 26/01/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 7 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.94% 2.95% -5.99% T11
2 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.5% 4.45% -1.05% T23
3 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.5% 2.93% -2.57% T45
4 SWE Henrik Stenson 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.4% 2.45% -0.96% T37
5 ESP Sergio Garcia 20 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.4% 1.99% -1.41% T23
6 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 25 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.75% 2.52% -0.23% MC
7 FRA Victor Perez 25 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.75% 1.99% -0.76% T16
8 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.75% 1.29% -1.46% T8
9 IRL Shane Lowry 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.75% 0.96% -1.79% T11
10 ENG Lee Westwood 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.78% -0.68% T50
11 BEL Thomas Pieters 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.7% -0.77% T37
12 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.6% -0.87% MC
13 GER Martin Kaymer 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.1% 0.89% -1.22% T16
14 RSA Erik van Rooyen 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 2.48% 0.49% T37 8.9
15 THA Jazz Janewattananond 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 0.77% -1.21% MC
16 NOR Viktor Hovland 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 1.15% -0.6% T23
17 CHN Hao Tong Li 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 0.44% -1.3% MC
18 ENG Danny Willett 45 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.55% 2.07% 0.52% T43 6.96
19 SCO Robert MacIntyre 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.55% 1.8% 0.25% T8 6.96
20 AUT Matthias Schwab 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 2.02% 0.61% T23 6.28
21 ENG Paul Waring 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% MC 6.28
22 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.4% 0.89% -0.51% T32
23 ENG Matt Wallace 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.4% 0.55% -0.85% MC
24 NED Joost Luiten 60 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.17% 1.32% 0.15% T66 5.25
25 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.41% 0.35% T8 4.78
26 ENG Andy Sullivan 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.53% -0.54% DQ
27 ENG Tom Lewis 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 0.4% -0.61% T3
28 ENG Ian Poulter 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.94% 1.01% 0.07% T16 4.22
29 SWE Marcus Kinhult 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.76% 0.87% MC 3.96
30 USA Kurt Kitayama 80 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.88% 1.58% 0.7% T6 3.96
31 NIR Graeme McDowell 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.48% 0.6% MC 3.96
32 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.96% 0.08% T3 (tied w/3) 3.96 +33.7
33 FRA Romain Langasque 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.81% 0.02% T27 3.52
34 RSA Shaun Norris 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.88% 1.17% T56 3.17
35 AUS Jason Scrivener 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.9% 0.19% T58 3.17
36 ENG Ross Fisher 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.89% 0.19% MC 3.17
37 RSA George Coetzee 100 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.72% 0.01% MC 3.17
38 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.58% -0.13% MC 3.17
39 ENG Sam Horsfield 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.2% 0.63% MC 2.55
40 ENG Andrew Johnston 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.88% 0.31% MC 2.55
41 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.82% 0.25% MC 2.55
42 ENG Jordan L Smith 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.69% 0.12% T32 2.55
43 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.67% 0.1% T27 2.55
44 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.54% -0.03% MC 2.55
45 JPN Shugo Imahira 150 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 3.49% 3.02% MC
46 ITA Guido Migliozzi 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% MC
47 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.48% 0.01% MC
48 ENG Eddie Pepperell 150 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.21% -0.27% T11
49 FRA Benjamin Hebert 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.44% 0.8% 0.36% T45
50 RSA Zander Lombard 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.44% 0.72% 0.27% T58
51 AUS Wade Ormsby 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.9% 0.49% MC
52 SCO Scott Jamieson 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.86% 0.45% T32
53 SCO Richie Ramsay 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.61% 0.2% T58
54 RSA Justin Harding 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.6% 0.19% T37
55 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.56% 0.15% T30
56 RSA Richard Sterne 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.53% 0.12% MC
57 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 1.03% 0.67% 2
58 SWE Joakim Lagergren 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.98% 0.62% MC
59 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.57% 0.22% T50
60 AUS Lucas Herbert 200 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.47% 0.11% 1
61 USA David Lipsky 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.44% 0.08% T11
62 ENG Chris Paisley 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.39% 0.04% MC
63 RSA Haydn Porteous 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.38% 0.02% MC
64 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.32% -0.03% MC
65 NZL Ryan Fox 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.28% -0.08% T30
66 ITA Andrea Pavan 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 1.01% 0.7% MC
67 ENG Jack Singh Brar 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.85% 0.54% T16
68 ITA Edoardo Molinari 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.55% 0.23% MC
69 ESP Alvaro Quiros 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.36% 0.04% MC
70 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.84% 0.56% T56
71 FIN Kalle Samooja 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.63% 0.35% T27
72 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.57% 0.29% T16
73 IND Shubhankar Sharma 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.55% 0.27% MC
74 ENG Ashley Chesters 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.51% 0.23% MC
75 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.47% 0.19% MC
76 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% MC
77 ENG Aaron Rai 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.42% 0.14% 71
78 SWE Alexander Bjork 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% T45
79 KOR Jeunghun Wang 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.29% 0.01% MC
80 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.02% T37
81 FRA Victor Dubuisson 250 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.19% -0.1% MC
82 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.78% 0.55% 70
83 GER Sebastian Heisele 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.71% 0.48% T66
84 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.36% MC
85 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.45% 0.21% T32
86 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% T50
87 DEN Jeff Winther 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.3% 0.07% T37
88 ENG Oliver Fisher 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% MC
89 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.24% 0.01% T11
90 SCO Grant Forrest 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.21% -0.03% T16
91 SCO Stephen Gallacher 300 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.2% -0.04% MC
92 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.84% 0.64% MC
93 ITA Nino Bertasio 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.47% 0.27% T66
94 RSA Dean Burmester 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.38% 0.18% T3
95 USA Sean Crocker 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.38% 0.17% T58
96 ESP Nacho Elvira 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.27% 0.07% T16
97 ESP Adrian Otaegui 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.21% 0.01% T45
98 ENG Robert Rock 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.17% -0.04% MC
99 IRL Padraig Harrington 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.55% 0.37% T50
100 RSA Justin Walters 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.51% 0.33% MC
101 RSA Thomas Aiken 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.26% 0.08% MC
102 CHN Wu Ashun 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.01% T6
103 ENG David Horsey 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% MC
104 ENG Steven Brown 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.32% 0.18% MC
105 GER Maximilian Kieffer 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
106 ENG Chris Wood 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
107 FRA Julien Guerrier 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% T32
108 ENG James Morrison 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.42% 0.3% MC
109 ENG Callum Shinkwin 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% T58
110 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
111 ENG Oliver Wilson 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.21% 0.09% MC
112 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.48% 0.39% T43
113 SCO David Drysdale 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.18% 0.08% T58
114 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.07% T50
115 SWE Robert Karlsson 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% T45
116 SCO David Law 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.08% T50
117 ENG Graeme Storm 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
118 USA Josh Hill 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
119 RSA Mathiam KEYSER 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.06% T66
120 KOR Taehee Lee 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.06% MC
121 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
122 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% WD
123 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% T58
124 ENG Harry Konig 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
125 SCO Paul Lawrie 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
126 ENG Richard McEvoy 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
127 ENG David Howell 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.18% 0.13% MC
128 AUS Daniel Gaunt 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.13% 0.08% MC
129 MAR Ahmed Marjane 2500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.12% 0.09% MC
130 KSA Othman Al Mulla 5000 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.01% 0.13% 0.11% MC
131 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 47.9% 24%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.4% 26%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 64.1% 27.3%
4 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 60.1% 29%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 66.4% 29.1%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 45.1% 29.5%
7 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58% 32.5%
8 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45.4% 32.6%
9 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 50% 33.9%
10 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 46.8% 33.9%
11 Coral 7 @ 1/5 59.9% 34.1%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 52.5% 36.2%
13 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 52.5% 36.2%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 52.7% 36.3%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 53.3% 39.8%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 55.2% 41.6%
17 VBet 5 @ 1/4 59.3% 42.2%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 62.4% 48.1%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 64.3% 49.9%