Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 35.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 304.8

Total Profit: +204.6

Sony Open in Hawaii

09/01/2020 - 12/01/2020

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 5 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 16.67% 12.15% 5.51% -6.64% MC
2 USA Patrick Reed 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.61% 4.87% -0.74% MC
3 USA Webb Simpson 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.61% 2.7% -2.91% 3
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.84% 2.84% -1% T12
5 USA Collin Morikawa 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.84% 1.71% -2.13% T21
6 USA Matt Kuchar 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.17% 1.27% -1.9% MC
7 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.8% 2.05% -0.76% T21
8 CHI Joaquin Niemann 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 2.01% -0.14% T57
9 CAN Corey Conners 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.03% 1.97% -0.05% T12 9.01
10 USA Charles Howell III 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.78% 1.43% -0.35% T12
11 USA Kevin Kisner 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.58% 1.9% 0.32% T4 (tied w/3) 7.05 +28.8
12 USA JT Poston 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.7% 0.27% MC 6.36
13 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.61% 0.18% T28 6.36
14 AUS Cameron Smith 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.48% 0.05% 1 6.36 +197.2
15 SWE Alexander Noren 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.35% -0.08% T32
16 USA Brendon Todd 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.27% -0.16% T21
17 MEX Abraham Ancer 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.43% 1.21% -0.22% T38
18 USA Brandt Snedeker 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.13% -0.3% T12
19 USA Chez Reavie 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.3% 0.73% -0.57% MC
20 USA Andrew Putnam 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.2% 1.66% 0.46% T57 5.32
21 USA Brian Harman 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.45% 0.36% T32 4.84
22 USA Brian Stuard 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 0.75% -0.34% T53
23 ARG Emiliano Grillo 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.42% -0.6% T21
24 RSA Dylan Frittelli 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 2.1% 1.2% MC 4.01
25 USA Lanto Griffin 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.86% 0.96% T7 (tied w/2) 4.01 +17
26 USA Ryan Palmer 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.25% 0.35% T4 (tied w/3) 4.01 +34.1
27 SVK Rory Sabbatini 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.02% 0.12% T21 4.01
28 MEX Carlos Ortiz 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.98% 0.08% T53 4.01
29 SCO Russell Knox 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.46% -0.44% T32
30 USA Vaughn Taylor 90 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 1.41% 0.61% T12 3.57
31 USA Pat Perez 90 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 0.89% 0.09% T45 3.57
32 JPN Shugo Imahira 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 3.12% 2.4% MC 3.21
33 AUS Matt Jones 100 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.23% 0.51% T38 3.21
34 USA Daniel Berger 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.82% 0.1% T38 3.21
35 USA Keegan Bradley 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.54% -0.18% T12
36 USA Aaron Wise 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.29% -0.43% MC
37 USA Zach Johnson 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.27% -0.45% T28
38 USA Nate Lashley 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.54% 0.96% T53 2.58
39 USA Brice Garnett 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.71% 0.14% MC 2.58
40 USA Ryan Armour 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.62% 0.04% MC 2.58
41 USA Brian Gay 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.61% 0.03% MC 2.58
42 NIR Graeme McDowell 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.56% -0.02% T4 (tied w/3) 2.58 +27.7
43 USA Russell Henley 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.55% -0.03% MC 2.58
44 USA Kyle Stanley 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.53% -0.05% MC 2.58
45 USA Scott Piercy 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.32% -0.26% T45
46 USA Patton Kizzire 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.24% -0.34% MC
47 USA Adam Long 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 1.2% 0.72% MC
48 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.98% 0.49% T12
49 USA Bud Cauley 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.91% 0.43% MC
50 USA Tyler Duncan 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.89% 0.4% MC
51 USA Harry Higgs 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.6% 0.12% T57
52 ARG Fabian Gomez 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.54% 0.06% MC
53 USA Zac Blair 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.45% -0.03% T63
54 SWE Henrik Norlander 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.29% -0.2% T9
55 USA D.J. Trahan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 1.41% 0.99% T28
56 CHN Zhang Xinjun 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.8% 0.38% MC
57 USA Keith Mitchell 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.72% 0.3% MC
58 CAN Nick Taylor 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.58% 0.16% T32
59 USA Kevin Tway 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.57% 0.16% MC
60 USA Doc Redman 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.5% 0.09% MC
61 USA Charley Hoffman 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.48% 0.07% MC
62 USA Talor Gooch 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.38% -0.04% T63
63 USA Chris Kirk 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.33% -0.08% MC
64 USA Mark Hubbard 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.74% 0.38% MC
65 USA Chesson Hadley 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.43% 0.07% MC
66 CAN David Hearn 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.31% -0.05% MC
67 USA Luke List 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.3% -0.06% MC
68 USA Kramer Hickok 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.22% -0.14% T45
69 USA Jimmy Walker 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.13% -0.24% T45
70 USA Robert Streb 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.34% 0.01% MC
71 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.94% 0.65% MC
72 USA Robby Shelton 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.77% 0.48% MC
73 USA Scott Harrington 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.62% 0.33% T57
74 AUS Cameron Davis 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.56% 0.27% T9
75 USA Adam Schenk 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.49% 0.2% MC
76 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.38% 0.09% MC
77 USA Brendan Steele 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.32% 0.03% 2
78 USA Matthew NeSmith 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.31% 0.02% T32
79 USA Scott Brown 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.31% 0.02% MC
80 AUS Cameron Percy 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.28% -0.01% MC
81 USA Matt Every 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.27% -0.02% WD
82 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.25% -0.04% T28
83 USA Jason Dufner 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% MC
84 USA Michael Thompson 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.2% -0.09% T38
85 USA Patrick Rodgers 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.18% -0.11% T38
86 USA Hudson Swafford 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.13% -0.16% T57
87 USA Sam Burns 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.11% -0.18% MC
88 USA Hank Lebioda 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.41% 0.14% MC
89 USA J.J Spaun 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.15% -0.11% MC
90 USA Tom Hoge 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.77% 0.52% T12
91 CAN Roger Sloan 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% MC
92 USA Andrew Landry 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.35% 0.1% MC
93 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.33% 0.09% T9
94 USA Ben Martin 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.25% 0.01% T45
95 USA Chase Seiffert 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.24% -0.01% T38
96 USA Peter Malnati 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.23% -0.01% T12
97 USA James Hahn 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.21% -0.03% MC
98 USA Mackenzie Hughes 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.2% -0.05% MC
99 IND Anirban Lahiri 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.19% -0.06% MC
100 USA Doug Ghim 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.17% -0.07% MC
101 USA Jamie Lovemark 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.16% -0.08% MC
102 AUT Sepp Straka 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% T53
103 USA Jim Herman 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.44% 0.23% MC
104 USA Jerry Kelly 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.13% -0.08% T45
105 JPN Ryuko Tokimatsu 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 1.05% 0.86% MC
106 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.71% 0.53% 66
107 USA Joseph Bramlett 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.44% 0.26% T45
108 PUR Rafael Campos 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.44% 0.26% MC
109 AUS Rhein Gibson 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T57
110 USA Chris Baker 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.12% MC
111 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.27% 0.09% MC
112 USA Rob Oppenheim 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% T21
113 CAN Graham Delaet 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.13% -0.05% MC
114 USA Brandon Hagy 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.11% -0.07% MC
115 USA Ryan Brehm 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.1% -0.09% MC
116 USA Tyler McCumber 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.1% -0.09% MC
117 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.73% 0.58% T45
118 JPN Kazuki Higa 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.6% 0.46% MC
119 JPN Mikumu Horikawa 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.47% 0.32% 65
120 USA William Gordon 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.25% MC
121 NZL Tim Wilkinson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.36% 0.22% T32
122 ENG Benjamin Taylor 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
123 USA Mark Anderson 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.35% 0.22% T21
124 FIJ Vijay Singh 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.13% 0.01% MC
125 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.18% 0.08% MC
126 USA Bo Van Pelt 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.15% 0.05% MC
127 USA Michael Gellerman 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.12% 0.02% T38
128 USA Martin Trainer 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.22% 0.15% MC
129 USA Smylie Kaufman 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.13% MC
130 USA Parker McLachlin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
131 USA Colt Knost 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.06% MC
132 JPN Tomoyo Ikemura 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.23% 0.17% MC
133 USA Vincent Whaley 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.11% 0.05% MC
134 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.1% 0.04% MC
135 USA Eric Dugas 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1% MC
136 USA Jared Sawada 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1% MC
137 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 USA Ted Potter-jr 0% 0% 0% 0% T7
139 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 USA Vince Covello 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 USA Richard Hoey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 JPN Toru Nakajima 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 USA Tyler Ota 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Alexander Beach 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 35.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 58.2% 22.9%
2 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 59% 23.5%
3 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 51.7% 27.3%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.4% 28.5%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.7%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 54.7% 29.9%
7 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.2% 31.9%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 50.5% 34.4%
9 Coral 7 @ 1/5 60.8% 35%
10 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 48.5% 35.6%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 48.9% 35.9%
12 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 53.3% 36.9%
13 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 53.4% 36.9%
14 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 56.1% 39.4%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 56.1% 39.4%
16 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 56.1% 39.4%
17 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 56.1% 39.4%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 55.4% 41.9%
19 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 55.4% 41.9%
20 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.8%