Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 24.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 87.8

Total Profit: -12.4

NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER

14/11/2019 - 17/11/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 8 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.95% 4.72% -4.23% T6
2 SWE Henrik Stenson 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% 5.06% -0.32% T17
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% 4.12% -1.25% 1
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% 3.91% -1.47% T10
5 RSA Erik van Rooyen 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.24% 4.11% -0.13% T30
6 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.5% 3.27% -0.24% T8
7 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.1% 3.41% 0.31% T44 13.81
8 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.1% 2.74% -0.36% T17
9 SWE Alexander Noren 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.1% 2.03% -1.06% T44
10 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 28 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.78% 5.37% 2.59% T3 (tied w/3) 12.38 +40.9
11 USA Kurt Kitayama 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% 1.81% -0.97% T30
12 CHN Hao Tong Li 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% 0.89% -1.89% T52
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% 2.06% -0.31% T30
14 ENG Paul Waring 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% 1.41% -0.96% T24
15 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% 1.38% -0.99% T6
16 NED Joost Luiten 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% 2.16% 0.19% T10 8.76
17 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% 1.85% -0.11% T21
18 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% 1.73% -0.23% T39
19 ITA Andrea Pavan 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% 3.87% 2.29% 62 7.04
20 IND Shubhankar Sharma 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% 1.57% -0.01% 56
21 RSA George Coetzee 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% 1.25% -0.33% T30
22 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.58% 0.78% -0.8% T3
23 RSA Branden Grace 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% 0.47% -1.11% T39
24 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.44% 2.07% 0.63% T24 6.41
25 FRA Romain Langasque 60 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.32% 1.93% 0.61% T30 5.89
26 ENG Jordan L Smith 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.32% 1.07% -0.25% T48
27 SWE Marcus Kinhult 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.2% 1.47% 0.27% 2 5.36 +46.9
28 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.2% 1.18% -0.02% T13
29 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.2% 0.81% -0.39% T24
30 RSA Justin Harding 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.14% 0.92% -0.22% T48
31 FRA Benjamin Hebert 80 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.74% 0.74% T24 4.44
32 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.7% 0.71% T30 4.44
33 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.64% 0.65% T21 4.44
34 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% 0.93% -0.07% T42
35 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 0.85% -0.14% T13
36 ENG Chris Paisley 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.89% 1.46% 0.57% T44 3.95
37 FIN Mikko Korhonen 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.89% 0.79% -0.09% T24
38 AUS Jason Scrivener 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.89% 0.67% -0.22% T3
39 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% 1.28% 0.49% T52 3.56
40 ENG Andy Sullivan 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% 1.18% 0.38% 61 3.56
41 SCO Scott Jamieson 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 1.04% 0.25% T44 3.56
42 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% 0.99% 0.2% T30 3.56
43 NZL Ryan Fox 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.83% 0.03% 57
44 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 0.61% -0.19% 63
45 FIN Kalle Samooja 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.73% 0.93% 0.21% T10 3.24
46 RSA Richard Sterne 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 1.06% 0.42% 60 2.85
47 ESP Jorge Campillo 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 0.9% 0.26% T13 2.85
48 SWE Joakim Lagergren 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% 1.26% 0.72% T39
49 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% 0.86% 0.32% T48
50 MAS Gavin Green 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% 0.74% 0.21% T21
51 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 1.18% 0.72% 59
52 RSA Zander Lombard 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 1.14% 0.68% T8
53 USA David Lipsky 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.59% 0.13% 58
54 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 2.27% 1.87% T30
55 IRL Padraig Harrington 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.51% 0.11% 20
56 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.9% 0.58% T42
57 RSA Ernie Els 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.26% -0.06% T52
58 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.38% 0.12% T48
59 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.32% 0.05% T13
60 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.6% 0.37% T30
61 ESP Alvaro Quiros 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.94% 0.74% T24
62 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T52

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 24.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.4% 20.3%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
3 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 35.7% 21.2%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 45.6% 22.1%
5 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 48% 24.2%
6 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 37.5% 25.4%
7 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
9 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 26.5%
10 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
11 Coral 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 28.3%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 42.8% 30.3%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 45.7% 33%