Betting Market Analysis for Mexico Open
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 4 days ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 17/1 | 2.78% | -2.76% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 23/1 | 2.22% | -2.02% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 28/1 | 1.69% | -1.74% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 28/1 | 1.66% | -1.77% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 28/1 | 1.2% | -2.23% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 31/1 | 1.63% | -1.51% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 35/1 | 1.57% | -1.2% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 35/1 | 1.4% | -1.37% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 39/1 | 2.87% | 0.38% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 39/1 | 2.24% | -0.24% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 39/1 | 1.54% | -0.94% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 46/1 | 1.84% | -0.28% | |
| 13 |
| Jake Knappe | 40 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.76% ≈ 56/1 | 1.27% | -0.49% | |
| 14 |
| Alex Smalley | 40 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.76% ≈ 56/1 | 0.97% | -0.79% | |
| 15 |
| Kevin Yuan | 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.76% ≈ 56/1 | 0.18% | -1.58% | |
| 16 |
| Matt Wallace | 45 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.7% | 0.14% | |
| 17 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.69% | 0.12% | |
| 18 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 45 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.44% | -0.12% | |
| 19 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 50 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.41% ≈ 70/1 | 1.39% | -0.02% | |
| 20 |
| Ryan Fox | 50 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.41% ≈ 70/1 | 1.3% | -0.11% | |
| 21 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 50 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.41% ≈ 70/1 | 0.58% | -0.83% | |
| 22 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 55 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.29% ≈ 77/1 | 1.61% | 0.32% | |
| 23 |
| Chan Kim | 55 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.29% ≈ 77/1 | 0.85% | -0.43% | |
| 24 |
| Jesper Svensson | 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.18% ≈ 84/1 | 1.25% | 0.07% | |
| 25 |
| Antoine Rozner | 60 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.18% ≈ 84/1 | 1.06% | -0.12% | |
| 26 |
| Adam Svensson | 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.18% ≈ 84/1 | 1.01% | -0.17% | |
| 27 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 60 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.18% ≈ 84/1 | 0.71% | -0.47% | |
| 28 |
| Justin Lower | 66 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 1.51% | 0.43% | |
| 29 |
| Patrick Fishburn | 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 1.22% | 0.15% | |
| 30 |
| C.T. Pan | 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 0.91% | -0.17% | |
| 31 |
| Greyson Sigg | 66 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 0.87% | -0.21% | |
| 32 |
| Joe Highsmith | 66 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 0.74% | -0.34% | |
| 33 |
| Andrew Putnam | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.01% ≈ 98/1 | 0.99% | -0.02% | |
| 34 |
| Ryan Gerard | 70 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.41% | 1.01% ≈ 98/1 | 0.74% | -0.27% | |
| 35 |
| Kevin Roy | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.01% ≈ 98/1 | 0.68% | -0.33% | |
| 36 |
| Charley Hoffman | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 1.17% | 0.28% | |
| 37 |
| Carson Young | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 0.97% | 0.08% | |
| 38 |
| Benjamin Silverman | 80 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 0.79% | -0.09% | |
| 39 |
| Sam Ryder | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 0.76% | -0.13% | |
| 40 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 80 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 0.56% | -0.33% | |
| 41 |
| Takumi Kanaya | 90 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 0.92% | 0.12% | |
| 42 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 0.7% | -0.09% | |
| 43 |
| Vincent Norrman | 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 0.58% | -0.21% | |
| 44 |
| Ricky Castillo | 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 0.48% | -0.31% | |
| 45 |
| Victor Perez | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 1.34% | 0.63% | |
| 46 |
| Frankie Capan | 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 0.98% | 0.26% | |
| 47 |
| Chandler Phillips | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 0.88% | 0.16% | |
| 48 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 100 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 0.68% | -0.03% | |
| 49 |
| Lanto Griffin | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 0.52% | -0.19% | |
| 50 |
| Trey Mullinax | 100 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.71% ≈ 139/1 | 0.23% | -0.48% | |
| 51 |
| Vincent Whaley | 110 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.65% ≈ 153/1 | 1.01% | 0.36% | |
| 52 |
| Matt McCarty | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 2.01% | 1.44% | |
| 53 |
| Thriston Lawrence | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 1.99% | 1.42% | |
| 54 |
| Max McGreevy | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 1.34% | 0.77% | |
| 55 |
| Matteo Manassero | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 1.29% | 0.72% | |
| 56 |
| Luke List | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 1.05% | 0.48% | |
| 57 |
| Kyounghoon Lee | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 0.93% | 0.36% | |
| 58 |
| Hayden Springer | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 0.75% | 0.18% | |
| 59 |
| William Gordon | 125 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.57% ≈ 174/1 | 0.4% | -0.18% | |
| 60 |
| Paul Waring | 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 1.2% | 0.72% | |
| 61 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 1.18% | 0.7% | |
| 62 |
| Patton Kizzire | 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 1.12% | 0.64% | |
| 63 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 1.1% | 0.63% | |
| 64 |
| Ben Kohles | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 1.01% | 0.53% | |
| 65 |
| Joel Dahmen | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.68% | 0.21% | |
| 66 |
| Jackson Suber | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.68% | 0.2% | |
| 67 |
| William Mouw | 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.61% | 0.13% | |
| 68 |
| Quade Cummins | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.55% | 0.07% | |
| 69 |
| Isaiah Salinda | 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.51% | 0.03% | |
| 70 |
| Chad Ramey | 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.49% | 0.01% | |
| 71 |
| Jeremy Paul | 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.42% | -0.06% | |
| 72 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.41% ≈ 243/1 | 0.88% | 0.48% | |
| 73 |
| Henrik Norlander | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.41% ≈ 243/1 | 0.7% | 0.29% | |
| 74 |
| Nate Lashley | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.41% ≈ 243/1 | 0.69% | 0.28% | |
| 75 |
| Karl Vilips | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.41% ≈ 243/1 | 0.44% | 0.03% | |
| 76 |
| Sami Valimaki | 200 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.36% ≈ 278/1 | 0.85% | 0.49% | |
| 77 |
| Harry Higgs | 200 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.36% ≈ 278/1 | 0.79% | 0.43% | |
| 78 |
| Steven Fisk | 200 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.36% ≈ 278/1 | 0.77% | 0.41% | |
| 79 |
| Nick Hardy | 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.36% ≈ 278/1 | 0.49% | 0.13% | |
| 80 |
| Brian Campbell | 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.29% ≈ 347/1 | 0.64% | 0.35% | |
| 81 |
| Will Chandler | 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.29% ≈ 347/1 | 0.38% | 0.1% | |
| 82 |
| Ben Martin | 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.29% ≈ 347/1 | 0.34% | 0.05% | |
| 83 |
| Padraig Harrington | 250 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.29% ≈ 347/1 | 0.29% | 0% | |
| 84 |
| David Lipsky | 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.24% ≈ 417/1 | 0.89% | 0.65% | |
| 85 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.24% ≈ 417/1 | 0.51% | 0.27% | |
| 86 |
| Danny Walker | 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 486/1 | 0.39% | 0.19% | |
| 87 |
| Jose Luis Ballester | 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 486/1 | 0% | -0.21% | |
| 88 |
| Blades Brown | 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 486/1 | 0% | -0.21% | |
| 89 |
| Davis Riley | 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 556/1 | 1.04% | 0.86% | |
| 90 |
| Tim Widing | 400 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 556/1 | 0.78% | 0.6% | |
| 91 |
| Thomas Rosenmuller | 400 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 556/1 | 0.68% | 0.5% | |
| 92 |
| Paul Peterson | 400 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 556/1 | 0.66% | 0.48% | |
| 93 |
| Francesco Molinari | 400 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 556/1 | 0.19% | 0.01% | |
| 94 |
| Rafael Campos | 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.79% | 0.65% | |
| 95 |
| David Skinns | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.56% | 0.41% | |
| 96 |
| Braden Thornberry | 500 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.42% | 0.28% | |
| 97 |
| Hayden Buckley | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.41% | 0.27% | |
| 98 |
| Trevor Cone | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.35% | 0.2% | |
| 99 |
| Noah Goodwin | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.33% | 0.19% | |
| 100 |
| Alvaro Ortiz Becerra | 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.29% | 0.15% | |
| 101 |
| Norman Xiong | 500 (VBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.29% | 0.15% | |
| 102 |
| Scott Piercy | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.22% | 0.07% | |
| 103 |
| Matthew Riedel | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 694/1 | 0.18% | 0.04% | |
| 104 |
| Peter Malnati | 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 833/1 | 0.99% | 0.87% | |
| 105 |
| Taylor Dickson | 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 833/1 | 0.76% | 0.64% | |
| 106 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 833/1 | 0.61% | 0.49% | |
| 107 |
| John Pak | 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 833/1 | 0.44% | 0.32% | |
| 108 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 600 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 833/1 | 0.36% | 0.24% | |
| 109 |
| Ryan Palmer | 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1041/1 | 0.24% | 0.14% | |
| 110 |
| Mason Andersen | 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0.38% | 0.31% | |
| 111 |
| Fred Biondi | 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0.13% | 0.06% | |
| 112 |
| Tyler McCumber | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0.07% | 0% | |
| 113 |
| Anders Albertson | 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0.07% | -0.01% | |
| 114 |
| Jose Cristobal Islas | 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0% | -0.07% | |
| 115 |
| Santiago De la Fuente | 1000 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1388/1 | 0% | -0.07% | |
| 116 |
| Kaito Onishi | 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2776/1 | 0.38% | 0.35% | |
| 117 |
| Philip Knowles | 2500 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.04% | 0.03% ≈ 3470/1 | 0.13% | 0.1% | |
| 118 |
| Jose Antonio Safa | 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.04% | 0.03% ≈ 3470/1 | 0% | -0.03% | |
| 119 |
| Jesse Droemer | 3000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.03% | 0.02% ≈ 4164/1 | 0% | -0.02% | |
| 120 |
| Vince Covello | 5000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.02% | 0.01% ≈ 6940/1 | 0.02% | 0.01% | |
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 25.3 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.5% | 17.4% |
| 2 | Ladbrokes | 10 @ 1/5 | 82.4% | 20.4% |
| 3 | Coral | 10 @ 1/5 | 82.4% | 20.4% |
| 4 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 40% | 23.3% |
| 5 | BoyleSports | 10 @ 1/5 | 88.5% | 24.5% |
| 6 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 39.1% | 24.7% |
| 7 | BetGoodwin | 6 @ 1/5 | 39.1% | 24.7% |
| 8 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 45% | 27.6% |
| 9 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 42.4% | 27.7% |
| 10 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 42.4% | 27.7% |
| 11 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.4% | 28.1% |
| 12 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.5% | 28.1% |
| 13 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.5% | 29.6% |
| 14 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 59.2% | 31% |
| 15 | 10Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 48.6% | 33.2% |
| 16 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 52% | 33.9% |
| 17 | LiveScore Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.1% | 35.5% |
| 18 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.2% | 36.5% |
| 19 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.2% | 36.5% |
| 20 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 81.1% | 37.8% |
| 21 | VBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.7% | 38.7% |
| 22 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.9% | 38.9% |
| 23 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 86.2% | 41.7% |