Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 27.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 40.7

Total Profit: -59.5

Nedbank Golf Challenge

05/12/2024 - 08/12/2024

Up to date as of: 18 days ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Max Homa 12 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.79% 3.71% -2.07% 14
2 CAN Corey Conners 12 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.79% 3.55% -2.24% 6
3 RSA Thriston Lawrence 14 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.01% 3.71% -1.31% 14
4 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 14 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.01% 3.38% -1.64% 6
5 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 16 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.42% 2.84% -1.58% 5
6 USA Will Zalatoris 20 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% 2.34% -1.24% 18
7 NIR Tom McKibbin 20 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% 2.03% -1.55% 60
8 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 22 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.27% 3.29% 0.02% 24
9 USA Mackenzie Hughes 22 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.27% 3.27% 0% 6
10 BEL Thomas Detry 25 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.89% 3.1% 0.21% 36 12.91
11 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.89% 2.29% -0.6% 6
12 ENG Laurie Canter 30 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.43% 1.41% -1.02% 21
13 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 33 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.21% 2.23% 0.01% 48
14 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 33 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.21% 1.8% -0.41% 48
15 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 35 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 2.23% 0.14% 55
16 SCO Ewen Ferguson 35 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.79% -0.3% 31
17 ITA Guido Migliozzi 35 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.74% -0.34% 31
18 RSA Erik van Rooyen 40 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.83% 2.67% 0.84% 24 8.19
19 ENG Paul Waring 40 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 2.08% 0.24% 24 8.19
20 ESP Jorge Campillo 40 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 2.05% 0.21% 13 8.19
21 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 1.48% -0.36% 43
22 USA Johannes Veerman 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 1.11% -0.72% 1
23 RSA Brandon Stone 40 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.83% 0.94% -0.89% 18
24 ITA Matteo Manassero 45 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% 2.26% 0.63% 43 7.3
25 SWE Jesper Svensson 45 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 2.11% 0.48% 36 7.3
26 CHN Ding Wenyi 45 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0.18% -1.46% 40
27 FRA Julien Guerrier 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 1.83% 0.35% 6 (tied w/7) 6.58 +5.2
28 ENG Matthew Jordan 50 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 1.65% 0.18% 2
29 ESP Adrian Otaegui 60 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 1.36% 0.13% 24
30 ITA Francesco Laporta 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 0.89% -0.24% 6
31 FRA Romain Langasque 70 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 2.31% 1.25% 2 (tied w/3) 4.73 +35.5
32 ENG Robin Williams 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.18% 0.12% 36
33 ENG Andy Sullivan 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.13% 0.07% 14
34 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 70 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.88% -0.18% 52
35 ENG Dan Bradbury 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.45% 0.52% 36 4.15
36 ENG Sam Bairstow 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.27% 0.35% 52 4.15
37 AUS Elvis Smylie 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.84% -0.09% 14
38 USA Ryggs Johnston 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.58% -0.35% 24
39 FRA Frederic LaCroix 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 1.48% 0.65% 21 3.69
40 NZL Daniel Hillier 90 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 1.15% 0.32% 24 3.69
41 SWE Alexander Bjork 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.16% 0.42% 48 3.33
42 FRA Ugo Coussaud 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.13% 0.38% 43 3.33
43 SCO Calum Hill 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.01% 0.26% 55 3.33
44 AUS Aldrich Potgieter 100 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.56% -0.19% 2
45 FIN Sami Valimaki 110 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.59% 0.91% 63 3.03
46 GER Marcel Siem 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.28% 0.68% 63 2.67
47 SCO Connor Syme 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.27% 0.68% 59 2.67
48 SCO Grant Forrest 125 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.23% 0.63% 63 2.67
49 ENG Daniel A Brown 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.58% 1.08% 55
50 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.9% 0.41% 52
51 ENG Todd Clements 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.89% 0.39% 40
52 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.38% 0.95% 31
53 JPN Yuto Katsuragawa 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.99% 0.56% 18
54 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.79% 0.36% 24
55 ENG Danny Willett 200 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.26% -0.12% 21
56 FRA David Ravetto 250 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.35% 1.05% 31
57 NED Darius Van Driel 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.85% 0.55% 55
58 RSA Ryan Van Velzen 250 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.56% 0.26% 48
59 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 1.32% 1.07% 40
60 RSA Dylan Frittelli 350 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.63% 0.42% 31
61 USA Jordan Gumberg 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.53% 0.34% 62
62 SWE Simon Forsstrom 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.39% 0.21% 61
63 RSA Ockie Strydom 750 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% 6
64 ENG Dale Whitnell 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.33% 0.25% 43
65 ENG Daniel Gavins 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1% 63
66 ENG Joseph Dean 0% 0% 0% 0% 43

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 27.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.5% 25.1%
2 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 42.5% 26%
3 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 70.4% 27.9%
4 Coral 8 @ 1/5 70.4% 27.9%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47.8% 28.8%
6 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 48.3% 29.3%
7 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 46.3% 29.4%
8 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 46.3% 29.4%
9 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 47.6% 30.5%
10 AK Bets 5 @ 1/5 35.6% 31.8%
11 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 49.5% 32.2%
12 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 52% 32.5%
13 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 51.3% 33.8%
14 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 52% 34.5%
15 VBet 6 @ 1/5 52.3% 34.7%
16 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 35.1%
17 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 35.1%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 36.1%
19 LiveScore Bet 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 36.1%
20 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 36.1%
21 Betway 6 @ 1/5 54.3% 36.5%
22 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 56.3% 38.2%
23 PricedUp 6 @ 1/5 56.3% 38.2%