Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

Alfred Dunhill Championship

08/12/2022 - 11/12/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 9 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 10% 8.62% 4.02% -4.6% T26
2 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.63% 1.1% -5.53% T7
3 RSA Charl Schwartzel 14 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.75% 0.65% -5.1% MC
4 RSA Thriston Lawrence 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.54% 2.49% -2.05% T36
5 RSA Dean Burmester 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.54% 2.31% -2.23% T7
6 RSA Branden Grace 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.11% 0.63% -3.47% T4
7 ESP Adrian Otaegui 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.54% 2.13% -0.41% 2
8 SCO Scott Jamieson 33 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.54% 1.48% -1.05% T11
9 FRA Antoine Rozner 39 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.5/1) 2.5% 2.16% 1.64% -0.52% MC
10 RSA George Coetzee 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 1.22% -0.88% T13
11 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 1.14% -0.96% MC
12 RSA Zander Lombard 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 0.58% -1.52% MC
13 RSA Wilco Nienaber 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.05% 0.7% -1.35% T50
14 ENG Laurie Canter 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.99% -0.7% 3
15 RSA Erik van Rooyen 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.53% -1.16% T71
16 ARG Daniel Vancsik 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.25% -1.44%
17 ENG Eddie Pepperell 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.63% 2.3% 0.67% T17 7.31
18 ITA Edoardo Molinari 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.54% 1.21% -0.33% MC 6.92
19 RSA Oliver Bekker 55 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.54% 1% -0.54% T4
20 FRA Matthieu Pavon 70 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.21% 0.97% -0.25% MC 5.46
21 FIN Sami Valimaki 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.13% 1.42% 0.29% T58 5.1
22 RSA MJ Daffue 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.13% 1.07% -0.06% T9 5.1
23 NED Joost Luiten 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.06% 1.22% 0.16% T13 4.79
24 ENG Dale Whitnell 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.04% -0.02% T26 4.79
25 CHN Wu Ashun 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.06% 0.92% -0.15% 4.79
26 ESP Jorge Campillo 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.95% 1.55% 0.61% T52 4.26
27 RSA Louis de Jager 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.95% 1.17% 0.22% MC 4.26
28 FRA Clement Sordet 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.9% 3.19% 2.29% MC 4.04
29 ENG Dan Bradbury 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 2.1% 1.25% T63 3.84
30 GER Marcel Siem 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.18% 0.33% T47 3.84
31 RSA Justin Walters 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.78% -0.07% T71 3.84
32 RSA Brandon Stone 110 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.78% 0.5% -0.28% MC 3.49
33 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.74% 2.1% 1.36% T26 3.34
34 ENG Ross Fisher 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.74% 0.54% -0.2% T17 3.34
35 ZIM Scott Vincent 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.74% 0.3% -0.45% T41
36 ENG Marcus Armitage 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.7% 1.3% 0.61% MC 3.13
37 ENG Nathan Kimsey 125 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 2.34% 1.66% T11 3.08
38 ENG Daniel A Brown 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.55% 0.87% T26 3.08
39 USA Sean Crocker 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.82% 0.14% MC 3.08
40 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.81% 0.12% T32 3.08
41 USA Chase Hanna 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.69% 0.01% T36 3.08
42 RSA Richard Sterne 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.53% -0.15% MC 3.08
43 NIR Tom McKibbin 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.64% 1.23% 0.58% T13
44 ESP Alejandro Canizares 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.64% 0.83% 0.18% T68
45 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% T22
46 AUT Lukas Nemecz 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.6% 0.95% 0.35% T36
47 NED Darius Van Driel 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.84% 0.27% MC
48 SCO Grant Forrest 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.56% 1.1% 0.54% T50
49 ENG Matthew Southgate 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.53% 1.07% 0.54% T26
50 NED Wil Besseling 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.53% 0.61% 0.08% 75
51 RSA Shaun Norris 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.53% 0.37% -0.16% T52
52 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.79% 0.29% MC
53 RSA JC Ritchie 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.37% -0.13% T17
54 RSA Casey Jarvis 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.43% 0.83% 0.4% MC
55 RSA Jaco Prinsloo 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.5% 0.07% T41
56 RSA Jaco Ahlers 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.49% 0.06% T36
57 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 250 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 1.29% 0.95% MC
58 NED Daan Huizing 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 1.22% 0.88% MC
59 ENG James Morrison 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.75% 0.41% MC
60 RSA Deon Germishuys 250 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.75% 0.4% 76
61 ENG Todd Clements 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.63% 0.28% MC
62 RSA Ockie Strydom 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.5% 0.16% 1
63 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.5% 0.16% T58
64 RSA Bryce Easton 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.37% 0.02% T22
65 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 250 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.29% -0.05% MC
66 SWE Jens Fahrbring 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 1.31% 0.98% T68
67 ENG Matthew Baldwin 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 1.23% 0.9% T32
68 SWE Simon Forsstrom 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.76% 0.43% MC
69 CAN Aaron Cockerill 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.72% 0.39% T4
70 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.72% 0.39% MC
71 SWE Jens Dantorp 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.63% 0.29% MC
72 RSA Ernie Els 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.3% -0.04% T32
73 ESP Santiago Tarrio 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.25% -0.08%
74 RSA Thomas Aiken 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.59% 0.3% MC
75 FRA David Ravetto 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.52% 0.24% T9
76 SCO Marc Warren 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.48% 0.19% MC
77 RSA Christiaan Maas 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.43% 0.15% T17
78 RSA Pieter Moolman 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.41% 0.13% MC
79 RSA Jbe Kruger 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.33% 0.04% T52
80 RSA James Du Preez Jnr 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.25% 0.61% 0.37% T58
81 FRA Joel Stalter 400 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.8% 0.59% MC
82 RSA Neil Schietekat 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.48% 0.27% T63
83 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.24% 0.03% MC
84 DEN Christoffer Bring 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 1.09% 0.87% MC
85 RSA Darren Fichardt 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.39% 0.18% T22
86 GER Nick Bachem 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.37% 0.16% 74
87 SWE Mikael Lindberg 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.29% 0.08% MC
88 IRL Gary Hurley 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.5% 0.33% T32
89 DEN John Axelsen 500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.28% 0.11% T58
90 USA Gunner Wiebe 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.62% 0.47% MC
91 RSA Yurav Premlall 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.62% 0.47% MC
92 AUS Aldrich Potgieter 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.23% 0.08% MC
93 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 748 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.3/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
94 RSA MJ Viljoen 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.4% 0.29% MC
95 RSA Tristen Strydom 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.32% 0.2% MC
96 RSA Keith Horne 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.31% 0.19% MC
97 RSA Jacques Blaauw 750 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.31% 0.19% T45
98 RSA Dylan Naidoo 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.29% 0.17% MC
99 FRA Gary Stal 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.16% MC
100 POR Pedro Figueiredo 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.11% 0.32% 0.21% MC
101 RSA Albert Venter 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.37% 0.27% MC
102 SWE Anton Karlsson 902 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.9/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% MC
103 RSA Wynand Dingle 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.59% 0.5% T45
104 RSA Dylan Mostert 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.57% 0.48% T47
105 ENG Sam Hutsby 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.39% 0.3% MC
106 RSA Luke Brown 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
107 RSA Anthony Michael 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
108 RSA Martin Rohwer 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
109 RSA Ruan Korb 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
110 RSA Luke Jerling 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% T65
111 IRL John Murphy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.11% MC
112 RSA Jean Hugo 1000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.48% 0.4% T41
113 RSA Kyle De Beer 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.44% 0.36% T68
114 ISL Gudmundur Kristjansson 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.39% 0.3% MC
115 RSA Keenan Davidse 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
116 RSA Herman Loubser 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
117 RSA Jean-Paul Strydom 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
118 RSA Combrinck Smit 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% T65
119 POL Mateusz Gradecki 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
120 POR Stephen Ferreira 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
121 RSA CJ du Plessis 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% T52
122 SWE Tobias Eden 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% T71
123 USA Joshua Lee 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.29% 0.25% T17
124 RSA Merrick Bremner 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.28% 0.23% T52
125 RSA Jovan Rebula 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.26% 0.22% T65
126 RSA Ruan Conradie 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.45% 0.42% MC
127 SWE Philip Eriksson 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.32% 0.29% MC
128 RSA Lyle Rowe 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.29% 0.25% MC
129 RSA Alex Haindl 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.28% 0.24% MC
130 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T36
131 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T41
132 RSA JJ Senekal 0% 0% 0% 0% T52
133 RSA Dylan Frittelli 0% 0% 0% 0% T13
134 RSA Divan Van Den Heever 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
135 RSA Rourke Van der Spuy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 RSA Michael Palmer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 RSA Toto Thimba 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 RSA Jacquin Hess 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 RSA Thabang Simon 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 RSA Louis Albertse 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 RSA Matthew Spacey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 RSA Estiaan Conradie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% T22
144 RSA Jake Redman 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 RSA Makgetha Mazibuko 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
147 RSA Rupert Kaminski 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 RSA Nikhil Rama 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 RSA Keagan Thomas 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 RSA Adam Breen 0% 0% 0% 0% T58
152 Brooklin Bailey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 Gerard Du Plooy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 Harvey Young 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 Henning du Plooy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 Jastice Mashego 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 14.1% 14.1%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 48.1% 22.1%
3 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 23.2%
4 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 23.2%
5 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.7% 24.1%
6 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.4% 25.4%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 27.2%
8 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 54.3% 27.2%
9 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 57.8% 30.1%
10 Coral 7 @ 1/5 57.8% 30.1%
11 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 48.9% 31.4%
12 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 48.9% 31.4%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 46.7% 31.9%
14 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 46.7% 31.9%
15 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60.9% 32.7%
16 VBet 5 @ 1/4 51.7% 33.8%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 52% 34.1%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 50.5% 35.2%
19 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 64.3% 35.5%
20 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 64.3% 35.5%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56.8% 40.9%