Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 125.1

Total Profit: +25

Nedbank Golf Challenge

09/11/2023 - 12/11/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 7.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.4/1) 11.63% 10.54% 5.39% -5.16% T12
2 USA Max Homa 9 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.7/1) 10% 9.07% 3.32% -5.75% 1
3 NZL Ryan Fox 18.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.21% 4.72% 3.18% -1.54% T51
4 USA Justin Thomas 18.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.21% 4.72% 1.54% -3.18% 4
5 ENG Aaron Rai 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.94% 2.35% -1.59% T10
6 ENG Justin Rose 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.63% 2.96% -0.66% T51
7 RSA Branden Grace 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.49% 0.23% -3.25% T43
8 POL Adrian Meronk 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.36% 2.3% -1.06% T15
9 ENG Jordan L Smith 33 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.6/1) 2.94% 2.67% 2.31% -0.36% T12
10 SWE Vincent Norrman 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.52% 1.95% -0.57% T15
11 SCO Robert MacIntyre 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.21% 1.73% -0.48% 58
12 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.16% 1.89% -0.27% T6
13 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 2.06% 2.51% 0.45% 2 9.32 +42
14 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.89% 2.21% 0.32% 3 8.54 +40.7
15 SCO Ewen Ferguson 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.89% 1.45% -0.43% T20
16 NED Joost Luiten 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.78% 2.99% 1.21% T39 8.04
17 GER Yannik Paul 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.71% 1.52% -0.19% T15
18 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.56% 2.07% 0.5% 9 7.07
19 SWE Alexander Bjork 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.56% 1.79% 0.23% T10 7.07
20 ENG Matt Wallace 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.56% 1.35% -0.22% T15
21 ESP Adrian Otaegui 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.44% 1.06% -0.38% T33
22 ESP Jorge Campillo 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.35% 1.74% 0.38% T12 6.12
23 ENG Nathan Kimsey 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.35% 1.35% -0.01% T31
24 RSA Thriston Lawrence 66 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.35% 1.23% -0.12% T24
25 GER Marcel Siem 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.24% 2.03% 0.78% T20 5.62
26 FRA Romain Langasque 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.24% 1.68% 0.44% T62 5.62
27 NIR Tom McKibbin 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.12% 1.14% 0.02% T33
28 NZL Daniel Hillier 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.05% 2.17% 1.12% T33 4.77
29 FRA Victor Perez 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.05% 1.26% 0.21% T33
30 FIN Sami Valimaki 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.05% 1.17% 0.11% T26
31 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.05% 0.9% -0.15% T6
32 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 1% 1.16% 0.16% T51
33 SCO Calum Hill 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 1% 0.93% -0.06% T55
34 SCO Connor Syme 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.94% 2.28% 1.33% T43 4.27
35 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.94% 1.36% 0.41% T55 4.27
36 FRA Matthieu Pavon 100 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% T15 4.06
37 AUS Jason Scrivener 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.49% 0.59% T39 4.06
38 USA Sean Crocker 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.22% 0.32% T20 4.06
39 RSA Zander Lombard 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.03% 0.13% T55
40 SCO Richie Ramsay 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.86% 2.19% 1.33% 37 3.87
41 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.78% 1.11% 0.33% T6 3.54
42 ENG Matthew Southgate 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.78% 0.82% 0.04% T26
43 ENG Richard Mansell 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.73% 0.88% 0.15% T43
44 GER Nick Bachem 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.72% 1.07% 0.35% T43 3.26
45 ENG Dan Bradbury 125 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.72% 1.05% 0.33% 5 3.26 +42.4
46 RSA Louis de Jager 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.72% 1.02% 0.3% T43 3.26
47 FRA Julien Guerrier 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.63% 1.6% 0.97% T20
48 IND Shubhankar Sharma 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.63% 1.07% 0.44% 59
49 ENG Daniel A Brown 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.6% 0.99% 0.39% 64
50 FRA Julien Brun 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.59% 1.88% 1.29% T43
51 ESP Nacho Elvira 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.45% 0.89% 0.44% T43
52 SCO Grant Forrest 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.39% 1.45% 1.06% T39
53 DEN Jeff Winther 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.39% 1.15% 0.75% T31
54 ITA Francesco Molinari 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.39% 0.4% 0% T60
55 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.36% 1.32% 0.95% T43
56 ENG Matthew Jordan 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 1.04% 0.7% T39
57 GER Maximilian Kieffer 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 0.79% 0.45% 38
58 ENG Marcus Armitage 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 0.62% 0.28% T26
59 ENG Callum Shinkwin 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.97% 0.7% T60
60 ENG Matthew Baldwin 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.24% 0.76% 0.52% T26
61 GER Hurly Long 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.22% 0.83% 0.61%
62 SWE Jens Dantorp 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.19% 0.85% 0.66% T26
63 ENG Todd Clements 748 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.3/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.53% 0.41% T51
64 RSA Ockie Strydom 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.51% 0.39% T62
65 SWE Simon Forsstrom 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.12% 1.81% 1.69% T24
66 ENG Dale Whitnell 863 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.8/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.39% 0.29%

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.6% 3%
2 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.4% 22.5%
3 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 40% 23.8%
4 Betway 6 @ 1/5 40.1% 24%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 24%
6 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.3% 25%
7 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 67.9% 26.2%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 45.8% 27.2%
9 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 45.5% 28.8%
10 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 45.5% 28.8%
11 VBet 5 @ 1/4 48.7% 29.8%
12 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 30.7%
13 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 30.7%
14 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 30.7%
15 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 48.5% 31.4%
16 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 75% 31.5%
17 Coral 8 @ 1/5 75% 31.5%
18 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 31.9%
19 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 52.1% 34.6%
20 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 36.7%
21 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 36.7%
22 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 54.6% 36.8%
23 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 54.6% 36.8%