Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 11.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 77.9

Total Profit: -22.2

Italian Open

04/05/2023 - 07/05/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 18 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.34% 1.61% -2.74% T5
2 POL Adrian Meronk 20 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.93% 2.81% -1.12% 1
3 SCO Robert MacIntyre 23 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.2/1) 4.17% 3.44% 0.89% -2.55% WD
4 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.3% 1.06% -2.24% T47
5 FRA Victor Perez 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.17% 3.06% -0.11% T9 14.04
6 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.17% 1.27% -1.91% T16
7 ESP Jorge Campillo 33 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.43% 2.18% -0.25% 8
8 GER Yannik Paul 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.43% 1.97% -0.46% T23
9 FRA Antoine Rozner 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.43% 1.41% -1.01% T21
10 NED Joost Luiten 33 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.43% 1.18% -1.25% T67
11 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.43% 1.04% -1.39% T40
12 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.01% 1.5% -0.51% MC
13 ITA Guido Migliozzi 45 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.79% 0.53% -1.27% T57
14 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.62% 1.28% -0.34% MC
15 ENG Richard Mansell 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.62% 1.03% -0.59% 70
16 FRA Romain Langasque 55 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.47% 0.94% -0.53% 2
17 ENG Sam Horsfield 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.47% 0.58% -0.89%
18 SWE Alexander Bjork 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.42% 1.21% -0.21% 4 6.3 +39.9
19 SCO Ewen Ferguson 60 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.35% 1.02% -0.33% MC
20 FRA Julien Brun 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.31% 1.36% 0.05% 72 5.8
21 ESP Adrian Otaegui 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.31% 1.16% -0.15% T40 5.8
22 MAS Gavin Green 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.23% 1.19% -0.04% MC 5.45
23 GER Marcel Schneider 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.23% 0.95% -0.28% MC
24 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 75 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.09% 0.91% -0.17% MC 4.81
25 FIN Mikko Korhonen 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.09% 0.45% -0.64% WD
26 SCO Grant Forrest 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.02% 1.18% 0.16% T32 4.51
27 ENG Callum Shinkwin 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 1.16% 0.14% T9 4.51
28 SCO Scott Jamieson 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 1.15% 0.13% T47 4.51
29 ITA Edoardo Molinari 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.02% 0.83% -0.19% MC 4.51
30 FIN Sami Valimaki 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 0.8% -0.21% T21
31 SCO Calum Hill 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 0.8% -0.22% MC
32 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 0.69% -0.32% T23
33 ENG Andy Sullivan 80 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 0.68% -0.34% MC
34 FRA Matthieu Pavon 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.91% 0.67% -0.23% T32
35 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.86% 0.79% -0.07% MC 3.81
36 GER Maximilian Kieffer 100 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.82% 1.16% 0.34% T5 (tied w/3) 3.62 +38
37 KOR Jeunghun Wang 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 1.05% 0.24% MC 3.62
38 ENG Eddie Pepperell 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.82% 0.83% 0.01% T9 3.62
39 GER Marcel Siem 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 0.75% -0.06% T26 3.62
40 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 100 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.82% 0.66% -0.15% MC 3.62
41 ENG Ross Fisher 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 0.59% -0.23% T67
42 THA Jazz Janewattananond 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.78% 1.32% 0.55% T57 3.45
43 USA John Catlin 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.37% -0.37% T40
44 GER Nick Bachem 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.67% 1.13% 0.47% MC 2.95
45 ENG Daniel A Brown 125 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 1.04% 0.39% T57 2.9
46 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.94% 0.28% MC 2.9
47 SCO Connor Syme 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.74% 0.08% MC 2.9
48 ENG Matthew Southgate 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.72% 0.07% T32 2.9
49 CAN Aaron Cockerill 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 1.15% 0.54% T16
50 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 0.96% 0.35% MC
51 RSA Thriston Lawrence 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 0.88% 0.26% MC
52 GER Hurly Long 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 0.53% -0.09%
53 RSA Oliver Bekker 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.62% 0.49% -0.12% MC
54 ENG Dale Whitnell 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.57% 0.83% 0.26% MC
55 FRA Clement Sordet 150 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 1.02% 0.47% T9
56 RSA Zander Lombard 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.99% 0.45% T26
57 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.77% 0.22% T16
58 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.69% 0.15% T53
59 NIR Tom McKibbin 150 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.57% 0.02% MC
60 ENG Paul Waring 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.4% -0.15% MC
61 JPN Kazuki Higa 150 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.37% -0.17% MC
62 CHN Wu Ashun 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.99% 0.48% T32
63 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.67% 0.16% T40
64 RSA Louis de Jager 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.47% 0.36% -0.11% 66
65 FIN Kalle Samooja 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.47% 0.33% -0.14% T9
66 ITA Renato Paratore 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.9% 0.45% 71
67 RSA George Coetzee 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.66% 0.21% MC
68 ENG Matthew Jordan 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.6% 0.15% MC
69 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.32% -0.13% MC
70 SCO Richie Ramsay 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 0.61% 0.18% T53
71 USA Johannes Veerman 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 0.43% 0% MC
72 ENG Luke Donald 200 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.72% 0.31% MC
73 SWE Joakim Lagergren 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.66% 0.25% MC
74 ENG Matthew Baldwin 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.64% 0.23% T26
75 ENG Marcus Armitage 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.45% 0.04% T9
76 AUT Lukas Nemecz 200 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.38% -0.03% T57
77 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 1.01% 0.6% T9
78 IND Shubhankar Sharma 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.39% 0.56% 0.17% T26
79 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.37% 0.63% 0.26% T47
80 ENG Dan Bradbury 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.53% 0.17% T32
81 ARG Daniel Vancsik 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.34% 0.2% -0.14%
82 RSA Ockie Strydom 250 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 1.01% 0.68% MC
83 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.75% 0.42% MC
84 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.55% 0.23% MC
85 SWE Simon Forsstrom 250 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.53% 0.2% T32
86 FRA Julien Guerrier 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.44% 0.11% 3
87 NZL Daniel Hillier 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.43% 0.1% MC
88 DEN Jeff Winther 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.42% 0.09% MC
89 NED Wil Besseling 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.42% 0.09% T26
90 USA Sean Crocker 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.41% 0.08% T53
91 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.29% -0.04% T16
92 ESP Santiago Tarrio 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.2% -0.12%
93 USA Chase Hanna 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.56% 0.25% MC
94 ENG Daniel Gavins 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.81% 0.54% T57
95 RSA JC Ritchie 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.49% 0.22% T32
96 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.2% -0.07% MC
97 CHN Shao Yong-liang 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.2% -0.07%
98 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.66% 0.4% MC
99 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 350 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.53% 0.29% T64
100 ESP Nacho Elvira 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.42% 0.18% MC
101 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.28% 0.05% T32
102 FRA David Ravetto 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.57% 0.36% T40
103 RSA Deon Germishuys 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.56% 0.35% MC
104 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.5% 0.29% 52
105 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.47% 0.27% MC
106 FRA Alexander Levy 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% T47
107 SWE Jens Dantorp 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.6% 0.41% T47
108 RSA Justin Walters 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.36% 0.17% T40
109 SCO Marc Warren 500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.5% 0.33% MC
110 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.43% 0.27% MC
111 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.3% 0.13% MC
112 ITA Filippo Celli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.21% 0.04% MC
113 NED Darius Van Driel 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.15% 0.46% 0.3% MC
114 FRA Victor Dubuisson 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.17% 0.03% WD
115 KOR Yeongsu Kim 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
116 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.2% 0.07% MC
117 ITA Stefano Mazzoli 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.2% 0.07% MC
118 RSA Bryce Easton 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.55% 0.41% T23
119 ENG John Parry 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.45% 0.34% MC
120 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% 69
121 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.5% 0.39% MC
122 ENG James Morrison 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.39% 0.28% MC
123 ENG Sam Hutsby 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.31% 0.2% MC
124 ENG Todd Clements 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.44% 0.34% T26
125 USA Joshua Lee 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.37% 0.28% MC
126 SCO Stephen Gallacher 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% MC
127 IRL Gary Hurley 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.58% 0.49% MC
128 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.51% 0.43% MC
129 DEN John Axelsen 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.48% 0.4% MC
130 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.36% 0.27% MC
131 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.22% 0.13% MC
132 ITA Pietro Bovari 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
133 Marco Florioli 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
134 FRA Joel Stalter 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.72% 0.67%
135 DEN Christoffer Bring 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.39% 0.35% MC
136 POR Pedro Figueiredo 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.39% 0.35% T57
137 CHN Ma Chengyao 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
138 IND Manu Gandas 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.3% 0.25% MC
139 FRA Gregory Havret 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.16% MC
140 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.16% MC
141 ITA Aron Zemmer 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.16% T64
142 ITA Gregorio De Leo 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.16% MC
143 USA Gunner Wiebe 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.41% 0.38% MC
144 ITA Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
145 ITA Andrea Saracino 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
146 ITA Emanuele Canonica 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
147 SWE Tobias Eden 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
148 FRA Gary Stal 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 ENG David Horsey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T5
152 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T53
153 FRA Adrien Saddier 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
155 ENG Garrick Porteous 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
156 ISL Gudmundur Kristjansson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 ITA Andrea Romano(June2000) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
159 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% T40
160 IRL John Murphy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 11.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 13.4% 17.5%
2 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 25.4%
3 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 65.3% 25.9%
4 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.9% 26%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 43.1% 26.2%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 54% 27%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 29.3%
8 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 29.3%
9 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 57.9% 30.1%
10 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.4% 30.8%
11 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 47.7% 32.7%
12 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 33.1%
13 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 50.2% 35%
14 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 65.5% 36.5%
15 Coral 7 @ 1/5 65.5% 36.5%
16 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 56.1% 37.7%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.9% 39.2%
18 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 69.2% 39.5%
19 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 69.2% 39.5%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.5%
21 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.5%
22 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.6%