Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 12.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 35.5

Total Profit: -64.6

Thailand Classic

16/02/2023 - 19/02/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 SCO Robert MacIntyre 20 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.06% 2.16% -1.9% T57
2 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 20 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.06% 1.22% -2.84% T5
3 ENG Jordan L Smith 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.71% 2% -1.71% MC
4 FRA Antoine Rozner 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.16% 2.32% -0.84% T5
5 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.16% 1.49% -1.67% 1
6 ESP Adrian Otaegui 33 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.6/1) 2.94% 2.51% 4.72% 2.21% T66 11.24
7 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 33 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.51% 1.78% -0.72% MC
8 CHN Wu Ashun 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.51% 1.37% -1.14% T33
9 ENG Richard Mansell 33 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.6/1) 2.94% 2.51% 1.29% -1.22% T22
10 FIN Sami Valimaki 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 1.94% 1.34% -0.59% T22
11 SWE Alexander Bjork 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.85% 1.3% -0.56% T28
12 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.85% 0.67% -1.18% T70
13 GER Marcel Schneider 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.61% 1.96% 0.36% T28 7.21
14 JPN Takumi Kanaya 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.61% 0.42% -1.19% T28
15 ENG Matthew Jordan 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.47% 1.11% -0.36% MC
16 JPN Kazuki Higa 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.64% 0.37% T11 5.71
17 SCO Scott Jamieson 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.52% 0.25% MC 5.71
18 KOR Jeunghun Wang 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.38% 0.11% 8 5.71
19 MAS Gavin Green 66 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.35% 0.07% MC 5.71
20 RSA Thriston Lawrence 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.26% -0.01% T38 5.71
21 ENG Dan Bradbury 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.18% -0.09% MC
22 RSA Zander Lombard 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.16% -0.11% T17
23 ENG Nathan Kimsey 66 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.15% -0.12%
24 ITA Guido Migliozzi 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 1.11% -0.16% MC
25 NIR Tom McKibbin 66 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 1.02% -0.26% MC
26 ENG Paul Waring 66 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.01% -0.26% T57
27 SCO Grant Forrest 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.97% -0.3% T13
28 FRA Matthieu Pavon 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 1.08% -0.18% T33
29 AUS Jason Scrivener 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 0.96% -0.29% MC
30 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 0.8% -0.46% T9
31 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 0.67% -0.59% T13
32 NED Joost Luiten 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1% -0.06% T3
33 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 0.96% -0.09% MC
34 GER Hurly Long 80 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 0.8% -0.26% MC
35 SCO Connor Syme 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.99% 0.84% -0.16% T33
36 ENG Andy Sullivan 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.94% 1.03% 0.1% MC 4.2
37 IND Shubhankar Sharma 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.94% 0.86% -0.08% MC
38 GER Yannik Paul 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 1.4% 0.51% 2 3.99 +35.5
39 ENG Dale Whitnell 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 1.11% 0.22% T9 3.99
40 GER Marcel Siem 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 0.84% -0.05% T17 3.99
41 DEN Jeff Winther 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 1.23% 0.39% MC 3.79
42 SCO David Law 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 1.12% 0.27% MC 3.79
43 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.88% 0.03% T28 3.79
44 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.77% -0.08% T38
45 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.68% -0.16% MC
46 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 100 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.63% -0.21% MC
47 FIN Kalle Samooja 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.57% -0.27% T22
48 FIN Mikko Korhonen 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.41% -0.44% MC
49 JPN Taiga Semikawa 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.34% -0.5% MC
50 ITA Edoardo Molinari 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 0.92% 0.11% T17 3.61
51 SCO Ewen Ferguson 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 0.73% -0.07% MC
52 FRA Clement Sordet 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.77% 1.42% 0.65% T22 3.45
53 RSA George Coetzee 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.73% 0.78% 0.04% MC 3.3
54 ENG Daniel Gavins 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.03% 0.34% T22 3.09
55 RSA Louis de Jager 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.31% 0.64% T46 3.04
56 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 1.24% 0.57% T46 3.04
57 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.69% 0.01% T51 3.04
58 SWE Joakim Lagergren 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.64% -0.03% T38 3.04
59 USA John Catlin 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.64% 0.86% 0.22% MC
60 WAL Jamie Donaldson 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.64% 0.51% -0.13%
61 ESP Jorge Campillo 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.59% 0.83% 0.24% T66
62 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.86% 0.3% T17
63 FRA David Ravetto 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.79% 0.22% MC
64 ENG Daniel A Brown 150 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.68% 0.12% T38
65 USA Chase Hanna 150 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.5% -0.07% T38
66 ARG Daniel Vancsik 150 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.23% -0.33%
67 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.55% 1.48% 0.93% MC
68 ENG Matthew Southgate 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.55% 0.97% 0.41% T11
69 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.55% 0.83% 0.28% T5
70 ENG Marcus Armitage 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.55% 0.62% 0.07% 72
71 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 1.06% 0.64% MC
72 RSA Justin Walters 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.85% 0.42% T46
73 ENG Matthew Baldwin 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.56% 0.13% MC
74 THA Ratchanon Chantananuwat 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.25% -0.17% T38
75 NED Daan Huizing 225 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.38% 0.66% 0.28% T33
76 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.73% 0.38% MC
77 SWE Simon Forsstrom 250 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.72% 0.38% T62
78 NZL Daniel Hillier 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.38% 0.04% T51
79 AUS Anthony Quayle 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.35% 0.01% MC
80 CHN Hao Tong Li 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.3% -0.04% MC
81 THA Thongchai Jaidee 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.25% -0.09% 69
82 FRA Adrien Saddier 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.44% 0.14% T13
83 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.79% 0.5% MC
84 ENG Todd Clements 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.64% 0.36% MC
85 NED Darius Van Driel 300 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.61% 0.33% MC
86 SWE Jens Dantorp 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.46% 0.17% MC
87 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.28% 0% T17
88 GER Nick Bachem 300 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.27% -0.02% T51
89 ESP Santiago Tarrio 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.23% -0.05%
90 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.25% 0.37% 0.12% T33
91 RSA Deon Germishuys 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.61% 0.36% MC
92 RSA Bryce Easton 350 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.59% 0.35% MC
93 SCO Marc Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.52% 0.28% T62
94 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.52% 0.27% MC
95 ENG John Parry 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.92% 0.71% T57
96 FRA Joel Stalter 400 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.56% 0.35% MC
97 FRA Benjamin Hebert 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.47% 0.25% MC
98 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.46% 0.25% MC
99 ENG James Morrison 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.43% 0.22% T62
100 ENG Sam Hutsby 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.22% 0.01% MC
101 IRL Gary Hurley 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.73% 0.56% T66
102 DEN Thomas Bjorn 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.32% 0.15% T38
103 DEN John Axelsen 500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% T57
104 SWE Mikael Lindberg 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% MC
105 SWE Jens Fahrbring 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.54% 0.4% T51
106 USA Joshua Lee 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.37% 0.24% T70
107 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.31% 0.19% T38
108 IRL John Murphy 750 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% MC
109 AUS Blake Windred 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.11% 0.19% 0.08% T62
110 USA Gunner Wiebe 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.42% 0.34% MC
111 FRA Gary Stal 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.38% 0.29% MC
112 DEN Christoffer Bring 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.36% 0.28% T13
113 RSA MJ Viljoen 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.24% MC
114 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.23% MC
115 ISL Gudmundur Kristjansson 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.22% T51
116 POR Pedro Figueiredo 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T51
117 IND Manu Gandas 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.18% T28
118 CHN Ma Chengyao 1000 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.18% MC
119 RSA Jake Redman 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.17% MC
120 THA Arnond Vongvanij 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.23% 0.15% MC
121 THA Kwanchai Tannin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.23% 0.15% MC
122 RSA Albert Venter 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.21% 0.13% MC
123 AUS Aaron Pike 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.11% T46
124 AUS Louis Dobbelaar 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.19% 0.1% 73
125 SWE Tobias Eden 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% 0.3% 0.23% MC
126 RSA Thomas Aiken 0% 0% 0% 0% T22
127 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
128 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
130 ENG Garrick Porteous 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% T3
132 ENG Andrew Wilson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
133 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% 74
134 THA Ekpharit Wu 0% 0% 0% 0% T46

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 12.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 13.2% 11.7%
2 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 38.7% 22.1%
3 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 23%
4 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 40.2% 23.4%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 50.2% 23.5%
6 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 68.1% 27.7%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 29.7%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 50.5% 32.4%
9 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 33.1%
10 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 33.1%
11 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 62.6% 33.7%
12 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 62.6% 33.7%
13 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 52.3% 34.1%
14 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 50% 34.5%
15 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 52.3% 36.6%
16 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 66.3% 36.8%
17 Coral 7 @ 1/5 66.3% 36.8%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.8% 37.9%
19 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 38%
20 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 38.2%
21 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 38.4%
22 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 38.4%