Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 6.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 40.4

Total Profit: -59.7

Alfred Dunhill Championship

08/12/2023 - 11/12/2023

Up to date as of: 11 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Dean Burmester 8.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.6/1) 10.42% 9.17% 3.33% -5.83% T44
2 RSA Branden Grace 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.18% 0.58% -4.59% MC
3 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.1/1) 5.68% 5% 1.06% -3.94% 3
4 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 17.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.2/1) 5.49% 4.83% 4.4% -0.44% 1
5 RSA Erik van Rooyen 20 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.7/1) 4.76% 4.19% 2.05% -2.14% T32
6 RSA Thriston Lawrence 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 3.83% 2.35% -1.48% T11
7 RSA Zander Lombard 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.38% 2.1% -1.28% T25
8 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 28 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.03% 1.86% -1.17% T7
9 ENG Dan Bradbury 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.03% 1.63% -1.41% MC
10 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.59% 1.29% -1.3% MC
11 RSA Charl Schwartzel 33 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.59% 0.33% -2.26% 2
12 SCO Ewen Ferguson 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.44% 1.7% -0.74%
13 SCO Scott Jamieson 35 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.44% 1.04% -1.4% T48
14 FRA Antoine Rozner 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.91% 1.27% -0.64% T15
15 RSA Louis de Jager 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.52% 1.16% -0.36% WD 6.69
16 ITA Renato Paratore 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 0.91% -0.41% T20
17 DEN Jeff Winther 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.29% 1.85% 0.56% DQ 5.71
18 ITA Guido Migliozzi 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.24% 1.38% 0.14% MC 5.47
19 MAS Gavin Green 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.19% 1.75% 0.56% MC 5.25
20 RSA Oliver Bekker 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.16% 0.81% -0.35% MC 5.11
21 RSA Darren Fichardt 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.09% 1.31% 0.22% WD 4.79
22 ENG Matthew Southgate 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.09% 1.08% 0% MC 4.79
23 SCO David Law 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.09% 0.86% -0.22% MC 4.79
24 RSA Dylan Frittelli 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.09% 0.67% -0.42% T20
25 ENG Andrew Johnston 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.09% 0.31% -0.77% T61
26 ENG Andy Sullivan 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.06% 0.96% -0.1% T7 4.68
27 RSA Wilco Nienaber 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1% 0.78% -0.22% T32 4.41
28 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.97% 1.29% 0.33% MC 4.27
29 USA Johannes Veerman 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 1.01% 0.14% T39 3.85
30 ITA Edoardo Molinari 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 0.93% 0.06% T20 3.85
31 NED Darius Van Driel 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 0.75% -0.12% T4 (tied w/3) 3.85 +40.4
32 ENG Paul Waring 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 0.57% -0.3% T11 3.85
33 ITA Matteo Manassero 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 0.34% -0.53% MC
34 FRA Adrien Saddier 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.76% 1.26% 0.5% T48 3.35
35 FRA David Ravetto 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.76% 0.77% 0.01% MC 3.35
36 CAN Aaron Cockerill 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.75% 1.04% 0.29% T15 3.29
37 SWE Jesper Svensson 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.75% 0.43% -0.32% MC 3.29
38 GER Nick Bachem 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.45% 0.74% MC 3.13
39 ESP Manuel Elvira 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 1.06% 0.36% T32 3.08
40 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 0.93% 0.23% T56 3.08
41 RSA Casey Jarvis 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 0.46% -0.24% T7 3.08
42 RSA Brandon Stone 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 0.32% -0.38% MC 3.08
43 ITA Francesco Laporta 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.7% 0.32% -0.38% T48
44 RSA Christo Lamprecht 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.66% 0.72% 0.07% T44
45 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.64% 0.74% 0.1% T7
46 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 0.98% 0.39% T32
47 FRA Alexander Levy 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 0.94% 0.35% T32
48 ENG Matthew Baldwin 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 0.91% 0.33% T15
49 ITA Andrea Pavan 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 0.32% -0.26% 14
50 ENG Marco Penge 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.53% 0.43% -0.09% T4
51 RSA JC Ritchie 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% T25
52 ENG Sam Bairstow 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.5% 0.77% 0.27% T32
53 RSA Ryan Van Velzen 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.47% 0.61% 0.14% MC
54 AUT Matthias Schwab 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.46% 0.76% 0.3% T11
55 RSA Thomas Aiken 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.44% 1.06% 0.62% T39
56 RSA Deon Germishuys 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.44% 0.65% 0.21% MC
57 RSA Shaun Norris 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.44% 0.32% -0.12% MC
58 RSA Christiaan Maas 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.31% -0.12% T25
59 ENG Dale Whitnell 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.41% 0.43% 0.02% T44
60 RSA Neil Schietekat 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.35% 1.6% 1.25% T39
61 SWE Joakim Lagergren 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 0.65% 0.31% T39
62 FRA Clement Sordet 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.61% 0.29% MC
63 ESP Santiago Tarrio 283 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.4/1) 0.35% 0.31% 0.31% 0.01%
64 ENG James Morrison 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 1.43% 1.13% T56
65 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.85% 0.56% DQ
66 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.67% 0.38% T25
67 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.46% 0.16% MC
68 RSA Louis Albertse 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.32% 0.03% MC
69 DEN Sebastian Friedrichsen 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.31% 0.02% MC
70 RSA Ockie Strydom 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.31% 0.02% MC
71 WAL Jamie Donaldson 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.29% 0.93% 0.64% T39
72 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.29% 0.48% 0.19% MC
73 ARG Daniel Vancsik 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03%
74 RSA Pieter Moolman 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.32% 0.05% T56
75 FRA Tom Vaillant 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.26% 0.31% 0.06% MC
76 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.25% 0.58% 0.33% MC
77 CHN Wu Ashun 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.23% 0.42% 0.19% T20
78 ITA Filippo Celli 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.69% 0.47% MC
79 RSA Nikhil Rama 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 2.53% 2.31% 64
80 SUI Joel Girrbach 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.33% 0.11% MC
81 RSA Jaco Prinsloo 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.72% 0.52% T44
82 USA Chase Hanna 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% T61
83 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.32% 0.15% MC
84 ENG Will Enefer 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.32% 0.15% T25
85 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 1.53% 1.36% MC
86 RSA Rupert Kaminski 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 0.67% 0.5% MC
87 RSA Trevor Fisher Jr 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% 0.32% 0.15% MC
88 SWE Adam Blomme 548 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.8/1) 0.18% 0.16% 0.43% 0.27% MC
89 FRA Ugo Coussaud 548 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.8/1) 0.18% 0.16% 0.36% 0.2% T15
90 DEN John Axelsen 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.92% 0.79% MC
91 WAL Stuart Manley 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.67% 0.54% MC
92 ZIM Benjamin Follett-Smith 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.61% 0.49% MC
93 Sam Jones 750 (Star Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.39% 0.28% T25
94 RSA Jean Hugo 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.32% 0.2% 60
95 RSA JJ Senekal 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.31% 0.2% MC
96 RSA Jovan Rebula 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.31% 0.2% MC
97 ENG Robin Williams 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.32% 0.21% T20
98 RSA Dylan Naidoo 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.42% 0.33% T15
99 RSA Hennie Otto 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
100 SWE Anton Karlsson 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
101 RSA Gerhard Pepler 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
102 NOR Espen Kofstad 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% T48
103 RSA Kyle Barker 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.17% T32
104 RSA MJ Viljoen 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 1.73% 1.67% MC
105 RSA Jacques Blaauw 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.72% 0.67% MC
106 RSA Malcolm Mitchell 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.72% 0.67% T61
107 RSA Dylan Mostert 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.56% 0.5% MC
108 RSA Tristen Strydom 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.56% 0.5% MC
109 POL Mateusz Gradecki 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.54% 0.48% MC
110 RSA Merrick Bremner 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.43% 0.37% MC
111 RSA Anthony Michael 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.42% 0.36% T48
112 RSA Martin Rohwer 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.33% 0.27% MC
113 GRE Peter Karmis 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
114 RSA Heinrich Bruiners 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
115 RSA Ruan Korb 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
116 RSA Wynand Dingle 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% T48
117 RSA Hennie O'Kennedy 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
118 RSA Stefan Wears Taylor 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
119 RSA Martin Vorster 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.26% MC
120 SUI Benjamin Rusch 1500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.31% 0.26% MC
121 RSA Keagan Thomas 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.31% 0.26% MC
122 RSA Keenan Davidse 1500 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.21% T48
123 Joshua Berry 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.5% 0.46% T56
124 RSA Combrinck Smit 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.43% 0.39% MC
125 RSA Lyle Rowe 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
126 DEN Joachim B Hansen 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
127 RSA Albert Venter 2000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
128 RSA Yurav Premlall 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
129 ZIM Robson Chinhoi 2500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.04% 0.32% 0.29% MC
130 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% WD
131 ENG Ross McGowan 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
133 USA Matt Davidson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 SCO Doug McGuigan 0% 0% 0% 0% 65
135 GER Max Rottluff 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 RSA Rourke Van der Spuy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 RSA Toto Thimba 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 RSA Omar Sandys 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 RSA Ruan Conradie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 RSA Jacquin Hess 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 RSA Thabang Simon 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 RSA Jason Roets 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 RSA Jacques de Villiers 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 RSA Alpheus Kelapile 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 RSA Musiwalo Nethunzwi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% T4
148 RSA Quintin Wilsnach 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 RSA Luca Filippi 0% 0% 0% 0% T25
151 Hunter Epson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 Jonothan Broomhead 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 Wade Jacobs 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 Matthis Besard 0% 0% 0% 0% T48
155 Conner Mackenzie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 Daniel Bennett 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Elvis Sithebe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 6.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.1% 8%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 51% 15.3%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43% 26.2%
4 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 66.7% 27.3%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 55.6% 28.5%
6 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 55.6% 28.5%
7 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47% 29.8%
8 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 70.1% 29.8%
9 Coral 8 @ 1/5 70.1% 29.8%
10 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 57.3% 29.9%
11 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.8% 30.2%
12 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 35.5%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.9% 36.6%
14 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 51.9% 36.6%
15 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 51.9% 36.6%
16 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 52.1% 36.7%
17 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 56.6% 38.3%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 38.9%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 39.1%
20 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 39.1%
21 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 56% 40.3%
22 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 56% 40.3%
23 VBet 6 @ 1/5 56.6% 40.8%