Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 15.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 253.5

Total Profit: +153.3

John Deere Classic

06/07/2023 - 09/07/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Denny McCarthy 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.46% 3.43% -1.03% T6
2 USA Cameron Young 16 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.46% 2.75% -1.71% T6
3 USA Russell Henley 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.46% 2.74% -1.72% T35
4 USA Taylor Moore 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 1.57% -1.35% CUT
5 ARG Emiliano Grillo 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 1.54% -1.38% CUT
6 SWE Ludvig Aberg 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 0.57% -2.34% T4
7 USA Chris Kirk 28 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 3.12% 0.51% T21 11.79
8 CAN Adam Hadwin 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 2.15% -0.47% CUT
9 USA Adam Schenk 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.61% 1.98% -0.64% T4
10 USA Eric Cole 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.44% 2% -0.45% T42
11 GER Stephan Jaeger 30 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.44% 1.62% -0.82% T13
12 USA Alex Smalley 30 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.44% 0.97% -1.47% T2
13 IRL Seamus Power 33 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.23% 1.52% -0.71% T13
14 CAN Nick Taylor 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 2.4% 0.55% CUT 8.34
15 KOR Byeong Hun An 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.15% -0.7% T51
16 USA Keith Mitchell 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.65% 2.84% 1.19% T42 7.43
17 USA Patrick Rodgers 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 0.87% -0.77% CUT
18 AUT Sepp Straka 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 1.38% -0.11% 1 6.71 +208
19 USA JT Poston 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.25% -0.24% T6
20 USA Doug Ghim 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 0.96% -0.53% T26
21 USA Beau Hossler 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0.96% -0.39% T26
22 USA Chez Reavie 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.43% 0.18% T35 5.61
23 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.04% -0.2% CUT
24 USA Ryan Palmer 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 0.78% -0.46% CUT
25 USA Lucas Glover 60 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 0.57% -0.67% T6
26 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.18% 0.79% -0.39% CUT
27 CAN Adam Svensson 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 2.05% 0.92% T21 5.11
28 USA Mark Hubbard 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.11% -0.02% T6 (tied w/7) 5.11 +15.6
29 USA Samuel Stevens 66 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.01% -0.12% CUT
30 USA Joseph Bramlett 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.64% -0.49% CUT
31 USA Dylan Wu 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.07% 1% -0.07% CUT 4.82
32 USA Taylor Montgomery 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1% 1.39% 0.39% CUT 4.5
33 USA Matt Kuchar 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 0.94% 2.16% 1.23% 67 4.22
34 USA Michael Kim 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.98% 0.05% CUT 4.22
35 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.94% 0.01% CUT 4.22
36 USA Nick Hardy 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.55% -0.39% T21
37 USA Matthew NeSmith 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.43% -0.5% T35
38 Gordon Sargent 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.4% -0.54% T57
39 ENG Callum Tarren 85 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.16% 0.88% 0.48% -0.4% CUT
40 USA Luke List 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.7% -0.13%
41 AUS Kevin Yuan 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.12% -0.72%
42 USA Davis Thompson 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.2% 0.45% T31 3.39
43 USA Carson Young 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.02% 0.27% CUT 3.39
44 USA Nate Lashley 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.9% 0.15% T21 3.39
45 USA Peter Kuest 100 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.79% 0.04% T17 3.39
46 USA Sam Ryder 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.67% -0.08% CUT 3.39
47 RSA Garrick Higgo 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.59% -0.16% T21
48 USA Akshay Bhatia 100 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.56% -0.19% T35
49 USA William Gordon 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.33% -0.42% CUT
50 USA Justin Lower 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 0.26% -0.42%
51 USA Brendon Todd 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.65% 0.98% 0.32% T2 (tied w/2) 2.95 +29.9
52 USA Ben Martin 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.67% 0.07% CUT 2.72
53 USA David Lipsky 125 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.51% -0.09% CUT 2.72
54 USA Greyson Sigg 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.44% -0.16% T13
55 USA Kevin Streelman 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.6% 0.56% -0.03% T51 2.7
56 USA Chad Ramey 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.97% 0.47% T42
57 USA Andrew Novak 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.71% 0.21% T42
58 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.31% -0.19% CUT
59 USA Chesson Hadley 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.49% 0.48% -0.02% CUT
60 USA Tyler Duncan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.61% 0.18% T61
61 USA Cameron Champ 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.42% 0.16% -0.26% T51
62 USA Zac Blair 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.16% 0.78% CUT
63 USA Kevin Tway 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.62% 0.24% CUT
64 USA Ryan Moore 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.42% 0.05% CUT
65 USA Patton Kizzire 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.38% 0.66% 0.29% CUT
66 RSA MJ Daffue 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.38% 0.58% 0.2% T35
67 USA Zach Johnson 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.35% 0.68% 0.33% T35
68 USA Jimmy Walker 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.67% 0.36% T42
69 USA Austin Smotherman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.58% 0.28% T51
70 ARG Augusto Nunez 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.48% 0.18% CUT
71 USA Lanto Griffin 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.31% 0.01% T51
72 USA Scott Piercy 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.28% 0.46% 0.18%
73 USA Robby Shelton 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.28% 0.46% 0.18% CUT
74 USA Joel Dahmen 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.26% 0.34% 0.08% CUT
75 USA Peter Malnati 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.26% 0.77% 0.51% CUT
76 USA Trey Mullinax 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% CUT
77 ENG Benjamin Taylor 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.62% 0.37% CUT
78 USA Troy Merritt 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.58% 0.33% T17
79 USA Andrew Landry 300 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.47% 0.21% T61
80 KOR Seungyul Noh 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.38% 0.13% T63
81 SCO Martin Laird 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.32% 0.06% CUT
82 USA Vincent Whaley 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% CUT
83 USA Ryan Gerard 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.23% 0.61% 0.39% T26
84 USA Harry Higgs 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.22% 0.32% 0.1% T57
85 USA James Hahn 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.23% 0.01% T35
86 USA Michael Thorbjornsen 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.21% 0.29% 0.08% T17
87 AUS Aaron Baddeley 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.2% 0.46% 0.26% T31
88 SCO Russell Knox 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.66% 0.47% T57
89 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.47% 0.28% T57
90 SWE David Lingmerth 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.45% 0.26% CUT
91 USA Kramer Hickok 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.44% 0.25% 69
92 USA Harrison Endycott 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.43% 0.24% 66
93 USA Brent Grant 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.37% 0.18% CUT
94 RSA Dylan Frittelli 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.13% CUT
95 USA Doc Redman 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.3% 0.11% CUT
96 COL Nicolas Echavarria 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% CUT
97 USA Robert Streb 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.22% 0.03% T42
98 USA Chris Stroud 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.18% -0.01% T63
99 USA Kevin Chappell 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.19% 0.39% 0.2% CUT
100 USA Grayson Murray 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.19% 0.17% -0.02% T6
101 USA Sean O'Hair 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.17% 0.29% 0.12% CUT
102 USA Adam Long 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.16% 0.44% 0.28% CUT
103 AUS Cameron Percy 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% CUT
104 USA William Mouw 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.16% 0.12% -0.04% T13
105 USA Jonathan Byrd 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% CUT
106 USA Martin Trainer 500 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.7% 0.55% CUT
107 USA Ryan Armour 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.35% 0.19% CUT
108 USA Brandt Snedeker 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% CUT
109 USA Brice Garnett 500 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% CUT
110 KOR Sunghoon Kang 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% CUT
111 Ross Steelman 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% CUT
112 SWE Henrik Norlander 577 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.4/1) 0.17% 0.13% 0.28% 0.14% CUT
113 RSA Erik van Rooyen 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.11% 0.39% 0.28% CUT
114 USA Kelly Kraft 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.45% 0.34% CUT
115 USA Wesley Bryan 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.54% 0.44% CUT
116 USA Scott Harrington 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% CUT
117 USA Jason Dufner 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% T31
118 USA Trevor Werbylo 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% CUT
119 USA William McGirt 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% CUT
120 USA Jim Herman 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.09% T63
121 USA Hank Lebioda 777 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.7/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.14% CUT
122 CAN Michael Gligic 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.09% 0.33% 0.23% CUT
123 USA Paul Haley-II 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.68% 0.6% CUT
124 USA Richy Werenski 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.44% 0.36% T42
125 USA Austin Cook 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.41% 0.33% CUT
126 USA Kevin Roy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.34% 0.26% T31
127 USA Cody Gribble 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% T42
128 USA Trevor Cone 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% CUT
129 AUT Matthias Schwab 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.21% 0.13% CUT
130 USA Kyle Westmoreland 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% CUT
131 USA Tyson Alexander 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% CUT
132 USA Nick Watney 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% CUT
133 AUS Geoff Ogilvy 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.21% 0.14% T42
134 SWE Jonas Blixt 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.21% 0.14% T17
135 USA Ryan Brehm 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.13% CUT
136 USA Brandon Matthews 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.19% 0.12% 68
137 AUS Greg Chalmers 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% CUT
138 USA Brian Gay 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.12% 0.04%
139 USA Ricky Barnes 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.28% 0.24% CUT
140 USA Derek Ernst 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.26% 0.22% CUT
141 USA Kyle Stanley 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.17% 0.13% CUT
142 USA Max McGreevy 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.11% CUT
143 USA Brian Stuard 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.11% T51
144 USA Derek Lamely 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.33% 0.3% CUT
145 USA D.A. Points 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.12% 0.09% CUT
146 Marcus Byrd 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.12% 0.09% CUT
147 USA Chad Collins 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.13% 0.11% CUT
148 USA Scott Brown 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
149 IND Arjun Atwal 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
150 USA Tommy Gainey 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
151 ARG Estanislao Goya 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
152 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
153 JPN Kaito Onishi 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
154 JPN Yuto Katsuragawa 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
155 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 0% 0% 0% 0% T6
156 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
157 Tommy Kuhl 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
158 Reid Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT
159 Jay Giannetto 0% 0% 0% 0% CUT

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 15.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 50.3% 14.5%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 54.7% 17.9%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 15.9% 18.7%
4 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 90.5% 26.1%
5 Coral 10 @ 1/5 90.5% 26.1%
6 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 27.3%
7 VBet 8 @ 1/5 67.3% 27.5%
8 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 28.1%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 69.1% 28.8%
10 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 69.1% 28.8%
11 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 28.8%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 29.6%
13 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 29.6%
14 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47.7% 30.3%
15 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 58.1% 30.4%
16 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 33.4%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43.4%
18 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43.4%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 61.8% 45.4%
20 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 63.9% 47.4%
21 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 63.9% 47.4%
22 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 68.5% 48.7%