Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 110.4

Total Profit: +10.3

Valero Texas Open

30/03/2023 - 02/04/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 14.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.7/1) 6.49% 5.31% 3.8% -1.51% MC
2 USA Rickie Fowler 18 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.3% 2.11% -2.19% T10
3 KOR Siwoo Kim 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.89% 2.69% -1.21% T39
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.89% 0.99% -2.91% T15
5 USA Taylor Montgomery 22 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 1.48% -2.07% T22
6 CAN Corey Conners 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 0.91% -2.64% 1
7 USA Matt Kuchar 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.14% 0.86% -2.29% T3
8 USA Davis Riley 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.14% 0.81% -2.33% WD
9 USA Chris Kirk 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.82% 1.84% -0.98% T10
10 USA J.J Spaun 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 1.27% -1.13% T22
11 SWE Alexander Noren 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 1.92% -0.07% T15 8.84
12 NZL Ryan Fox 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 1.16% -0.84% MC
13 ENG Matt Wallace 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 0.96% -1.04% T28
14 AUS Cameron Davis 40 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 0.75% -1.25% MC
15 USA Andrew Putnam 45 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.78% 1.29% -0.49% T28
16 USA Benjamin Griffin 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 2.75% 1.14% MC 7.11
17 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 1.07% -0.53% T28
18 ENG Aaron Rai 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 0.94% -0.66% T28
19 CAN Nick Taylor 55 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 1.39% -0.07% T15 6.47
20 USA Davis Thompson 60 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.34% 0.95% -0.39%
21 USA Brendon Todd 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.3% 1.35% 0.05% T53 5.75
22 BEL Thomas Detry 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.3% 1.1% -0.2% T64
23 USA Beau Hossler 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.68% -0.54% T46
24 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.12% 0.75% -0.37% T28
25 USA Adam Schenk 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.01% 1.48% 0.47% MC 4.48
26 USA Patrick Rodgers 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.11% 0.1% 5 4.48 +38.1
27 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.07% 0.06% T6 (tied w/3) 4.48 +38.1
28 USA Robby Shelton 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.97% -0.04% T15 4.48
29 USA Eric Cole 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.97% -0.04% T39 4.48
30 RSA Erik van Rooyen 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.89% -0.12% MC
31 USA Samuel Stevens 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.68% -0.33% 2
32 USA Nick Hardy 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.59% -0.42% T28
33 USA Ryan Palmer 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.45% -0.56% MC
34 USA Akshay Bhatia 90 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0% T46 3.99
35 USA Sam Ryder 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.9% 0.87% -0.02% T3 (tied w/2) 3.99 +34.3
36 USA Alex Smalley 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 1.54% 0.69% MC 3.78
37 CAN Taylor Pendrith 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 0.78% -0.07% MC 3.78
38 SWE David Lingmerth 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.56% 0.75% MC 3.59
39 USA Ben Martin 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.04% 0.23% T10 3.59
40 USA Tyler Duncan 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.9% 0.09% T58 3.59
41 USA Joseph Bramlett 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.82% 0.01% MC 3.59
42 USA Brandon Wu 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.79% -0.02% T58 3.59
43 USA Patton Kizzire 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.74% -0.07% T64 3.59
44 USA Luke List 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.74% -0.07% T39 3.59
45 USA Kevin Streelman 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 0.52% -0.29% T46
46 USA William Gordon 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.7% 0.88% 0.17% MC 3.13
47 ITA Francesco Molinari 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.87% 0.22% MC 2.88
48 RSA Garrick Higgo 125 (BetUK: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.66% 0.01% T64 2.88
49 USA Trey Mullinax 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.57% 1.77% 1.2% MC
50 ENG Benjamin Taylor 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 1.35% 0.81% MC
51 USA Kevin Tway 150 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.69% 0.15% MC
52 USA Pierceson Coody 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.66% 0.12% T53
53 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.56% 0.02% MC
54 USA Peter Malnati 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.52% -0.02% T22
55 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.85% 0.32% T15
56 AUT Sepp Straka 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.62% 0.09% T22
57 USA Charley Hoffman 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.47% 0.39% -0.09% T22
58 USA Hayden Buckley 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.91% 0.46% T10
59 ARG Emiliano Grillo 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 0.46% 0.04% T53
60 USA Scott Piercy 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.86% 0.45% MC
61 USA Harry Higgs 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.84% 0.43% T28
62 USA Matthew NeSmith 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.7% 0.29% MC
63 IRL Padraig Harrington 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.67% 0.27% T10
64 USA Doug Ghim 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.67% 0.26% MC
65 USA Chad Ramey 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.6% 0.19% MC
66 USA Lee Hodges 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.52% 0.11% T6
67 USA Kevin Chappell 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.34% -0.06% T39
68 ENG Harry Hall 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.39% 0.61% 0.22% T28
69 USA Austin Eckroat 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.37% 0.44% 0.07% MC
70 USA Mark Hubbard 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.33% 0.48% 0.15% MC
71 USA Chesson Hadley 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.73% 0.41% T60
72 USA Zac Blair 250 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.66% 0.33% MC
73 USA Greyson Sigg 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.59% 0.27% MC
74 SWE Henrik Norlander 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.58% 0.26% T60
75 USA Kramer Hickok 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.31% 0.64% 0.33% MC
76 USA Troy Merritt 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 0.36% 0.05% MC
77 USA Nate Lashley 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.73% 0.43% MC
78 AUT Matthias Schwab 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.73% 0.43% MC
79 USA Michael Thompson 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.48% 0.2% T39
80 USA Lucas Glover 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.46% 0.18% 45
81 USA Michael Kim 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.27% 0.46% 0.19% T46
82 USA Lanto Griffin 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.27% 0.34% 0.06% T15
83 USA Andrew Novak 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.73% 0.46% 9
84 USA Doc Redman 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.49% 0.22% MC
85 USA Austin Smotherman 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.37% 0.11% MC
86 RSA MJ Daffue 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.86% 0.6% T15
87 SCO Martin Laird 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.25% 0.48% 0.23% MC
88 USA Cameron Champ 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% MC
89 SWE Vincent Norrman 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.33% 0.11% MC
90 JPN Kazuki Higa 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 0.68% 0.46% MC
91 USA James Hahn 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.63% 0.43% MC
92 USA Robert Streb 400 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.27% 0.07%
93 ENG Callum Tarren 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.58% 0.39% MC
94 USA Adam Long 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.93% 0.75% MC
95 USA Brice Garnett 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.47% 0.29% T60
96 USA Justin Lower 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.43% 0.25% 70
97 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.5% 0.34% MC
98 USA Chez Reavie 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.24% T6
99 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.33% 0.17% T22
100 USA Trevor Cone 500 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.25% 0.09% MC
101 ARG Augusto Nunez 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.44% 0.29% T37
102 USA Stewart Cink 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.64% 0.5% MC
103 USA Austin Cook 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.72% 0.58% MC
104 SCO Russell Knox 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.44% 0.3% MC
105 COL Nicolas Echavarria 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.81% 0.68% T28
106 USA Ryan Moore 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.51% 0.38% MC
107 USA Cole Hammer 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.72% 0.6% T64
108 USA Ryan Armour 710 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.53% 0.41% MC
109 USA Brent Grant 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.49% 0.38% MC
110 ENG Luke Donald 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.47% 0.36% T46
111 USA Andrew Landry 748 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.3/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.42% 0.31% MC
112 USA Jason Dufner 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.44% 0.33% T60
113 USA Brian Stuard 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.21% 0.11% MC
114 USA Harrison Endycott 758 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.41% 0.31% MC
115 USA Carson Young 758 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.34% 0.23% MC
116 USA Paul Haley-II 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.35% 0.25% MC
117 USA Kyle Westmoreland 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.41% 0.3% MC
118 USA Kelly Kraft 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.37% 0.26% MC
119 USA Ricky Barnes 835 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 93.5/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
120 USA Jim Herman 863 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.8/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.59% 0.49% MC
121 USA Brandon Matthews 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.4% 0.31%
122 USA Kevin Roy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.38% 0.3% MC
123 USA Trevor Werbylo 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.36% 0.27% T56
124 USA Richy Werenski 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.24% MC
125 CAN Michael Gligic 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% WD
126 USA Scott Harrington 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.19% 0.1% MC
127 USA Brian Gay 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24%
128 USA J.B. Holmes 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.08% MC
129 USA Kyle Stanley 1500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.19% 0.14% 71
130 USA Nick Watney 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.35% 0.31% MC
131 USA Max McGreevy 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.26% 0.22% MC
132 USA Jesse Mueller 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.18% 0.15% MC
133 USA Davis Love III 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1%
134 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 0% 0% 0% 0% T64
135 ARG Estanislao Goya 0% 0% 0% 0% T46
136 MEX Roberto Diaz 0% 0% 0% 0% T37
137 USA Hank Lebioda 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 USA Dylan Wu 0% 0% 0% 0% T39
140 IRL David Carey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 USA Austen Truslow 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 USA Chandler Phillips 0% 0% 0% 0% T64
143 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% T46
144 USA Peter Kuest 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 USA Ryan Gerard 0% 0% 0% 0% T56
146 Peter Lansburgh 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 JJ Wood 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 9% 10.4%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 49.9% 14.1%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 54.3% 17.4%
4 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 79.3% 18.4%
5 Coral 10 @ 1/5 79.3% 18.4%
6 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 36% 19.8%
7 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 36.5% 20.4%
8 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 37.3% 21%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 50.3% 23.8%
10 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 52.6% 25.7%
11 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 27.1%
12 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 68.4% 28.2%
13 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 69.2% 28.7%
14 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 69.2% 28.7%
15 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 29.7%
16 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 29.7%
17 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 57.3% 41.2%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.4%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 42.5%
20 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43.3%
21 VBet 5 @ 1/4 63% 43.7%