Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 273.6

Total Profit: +173.5

Valspar Championship

16/03/2023 - 19/03/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 11.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.2/1) 7.94% 6.51% 1.99% -4.52% T10
2 USA Jordan Spieth 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.31% 1.42% -4.89% T3
3 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.47% 1.66% -3.8% MC
4 USA Sam Burns 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.32% 1.46% -2.85% 6
5 USA Keegan Bradley 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.9% 2.99% -0.92%
6 ENG Justin Rose 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.9% 2.73% -1.17% T36
7 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.9% 1.44% -2.46% T3
8 CAN Adam Hadwin 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.15% 2.06% -1.09% MC
9 USA Brian Harman 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.41% 1.82% -0.59% MC
10 USA Denny McCarthy 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.41% 1.07% -1.34% T19
11 USA Wyndham Clark 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.28% 1.49% -0.78% 5
12 USA Gary Woodland 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 1.02% -0.98% T45
13 USA Davis Riley 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 1.95% 0.86% -1.09% T19
14 USA Benjamin Griffin 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.78% 2.08% 0.3% T45 7.92
15 USA Brandon Wu 45 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.78% 0.68% -1.1% MC
16 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 50 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.61% 1.48% -0.13% T19 7.14
17 GER Stephan Jaeger 50 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.61% 1.46% -0.15% T27 7.14
18 FRA Victor Perez 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.34% 1.17% -0.17% T45 5.97
19 ENG Aaron Rai 66 (BoyleSports: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.25% 0.02% 5.44
20 CAN Nick Taylor 66 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.25% 0.02% T10 (tied w/6) 5.44 +6.4
21 USA JT Poston 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.71% -0.51% T10
22 USA Maverick McNealy 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.21% 1.17% -0.04% T36 5.36
23 USA Taylor Moore 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.15% 0.93% -0.23% 1 5.13 +229.6
24 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.39% -0.76% MC
25 USA William Gordon 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.72% -0.29% T36 4.5
26 USA Tyler Duncan 80 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.59% -0.42% MC
27 USA Robby Shelton 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 0.82% -0.08% MC 4
28 USA Joel Dahmen 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 1.76% 0.91% T61 3.8
29 KOR Byeong Hun An 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 0.74% -0.11% T45 3.8
30 USA Alex Smalley 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.54% 0.73% T27 3.61
31 USA Eric Cole 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.06% 0.25% MC 3.61
32 USA Sam Ryder 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.02% 0.2% T19 3.61
33 ENG Benjamin Taylor 110 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.74% 2.48% 1.74% MC 3.28
34 RSA Garrick Higgo 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.83% 0.17% T58 2.94
35 SWE David Lingmerth 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.81% 0.15% T27 2.94
36 USA Kramer Hickok 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.5% -0.16% T45 2.94
37 USA Ryan Gerard 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 1.69% 1.04% T71 2.89
38 USA Adam Schenk 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.83% 0.18% 2 2.89 +37.6
39 USA Matthew NeSmith 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.83% 0.18% 2.89
40 USA Dylan Wu 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.63% -0.02% T58 2.89
41 USA Beau Hossler 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 0.78% 0.17% MC
42 USA Nate Lashley 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 0.69% 0.08% MC
43 USA Luke List 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 0.5% -0.12% MC
44 USA Trey Mullinax 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.58% 2.2% 1.62% MC
45 USA Lee Hodges 150 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.5% -0.04% T63
46 USA Joseph Bramlett 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.53% 0.61% 0.08% T36
47 USA Patrick Rodgers 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% T36
48 USA Akshay Bhatia 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.98% 0.48% MC
49 SWE Ludvig Aberg 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.69% 0.19% T61
50 USA Pierceson Coody 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.47% 1.38% 0.91% MC
51 USA Ben Martin 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.45% 0.71% 0.26% T45
52 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 1.1% 0.67% T45
53 ENG Matt Wallace 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.48% 0.07% T7
54 USA Austin Smotherman 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.34% -0.07% T36
55 USA Chad Ramey 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.33% -0.08% T27
56 USA Charley Hoffman 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.32% -0.09% MC
57 USA Troy Merritt 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.3% -0.11% MC
58 USA Mark Hubbard 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 1.09% 0.68% MC
59 USA David Lipsky 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 0.68% 0.28% T36
60 USA Nick Hardy 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 0.62% 0.21% MC
61 USA Webb Simpson 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 0.46% 0.06% T7
62 USA Zach Johnson 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.82% 0.49% MC
63 SCO Martin Laird 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.68% 0.35% MC
64 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.64% 0.32% MC
65 USA Carson Young 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.63% 0.31% MC
66 RSA Dylan Frittelli 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.6% 0.27% MC
67 USA Peter Malnati 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.56% 0.23% MC
68 USA Michael Thompson 250 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.49% 0.16% T19
69 USA Lucas Glover 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.39% 0.06% T36
70 SWE Henrik Norlander 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.24% -0.09% T45
71 USA Chesson Hadley 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.29% 0.51% 0.22% MC
72 USA Chez Reavie 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.57% 0.3% MC
73 USA James Hahn 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.39% 0.12% T71
74 USA Greyson Sigg 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.55% 0.28% 57
75 USA Michael Kim 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.47% 0.21% T45
76 SCO Russell Knox 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.67% 0.41% MC
77 USA Samuel Stevens 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.44% 0.19% MC
78 USA Kevin Kisner 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.24% 0.26% 0.02% MC
79 USA Ryan Moore 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.47% 0.24% MC
80 ENG Luke Donald 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.38% 0.15% MC
81 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.52% 0.29% T63
82 USA Patton Kizzire 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.23% 0.58% 0.35% T10
83 ENG Harry Hall 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.72% 0.49% MC
84 USA Adam Long 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.57% 0.35% T19
85 USA Kevin Streelman 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 0.53% 0.32% T27
86 SWE Vincent Norrman 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 0.31% 0.1% MC
87 RSA MJ Daffue 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.3% 0.09% T19
88 USA Jim Herman 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.86% 0.66% MC
89 USA Harrison Endycott 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.53% 0.32% T65
90 USA Zac Blair 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.27% 0.06% T10
91 USA Stewart Cink 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.65% 0.45% MC
92 USA Cameron Champ 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.2% 0.26% 0.06% MC
93 USA Justin Lower 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.53% 0.33% MC
94 USA Harry Higgs 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.44% 0.24% MC
95 RSA Erik van Rooyen 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.19% 0.3% 0.11% T10
96 COL Nicolas Echavarria 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.85% 0.68% MC
97 AUT Matthias Schwab 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.59% 0.42% MC
98 USA Ryan Armour 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.56% 0.39% T45
99 USA Erik Barnes 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.42% 0.25% MC
100 USA Doug Ghim 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.35% 0.18% T27
101 USA John VanDerLaan 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.86% 0.69% MC
102 USA Paul Haley-II 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.28% 0.12% MC
103 USA Kyle Westmoreland 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.54% 0.38% MC
104 USA Wesley Bryan 500 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.28% 0.12%
105 USA Trevor Werbylo 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.26% 0.1% T27
106 USA Robert Streb 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.23% 0.06% MC
107 USA Anders Albertson 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.19% 0.02%
108 SVK Rory Sabbatini 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.19% 0.02% T16
109 USA Andrew Novak 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.47% 0.3% T27
110 USA Austin Eckroat 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.34% 0.18% MC
111 ARG Augusto Nunez 527 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.38% 0.23% MC
112 USA Doc Redman 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% T16
113 USA Tyson Alexander 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 1.4% 1.26% T65
114 USA Richy Werenski 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.32% 0.18% T27
115 USA Jimmy Walker 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.28% 0.15% MC
116 USA Brandon Matthews 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.2% 0.07% MC
117 USA Austin Cook 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.41% 0.27% MC
118 USA Cole Hammer 613 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.6/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.59% 0.46% MC
119 USA Brent Grant 662 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.9/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.64% 0.51% MC
120 USA Brice Garnett 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.52% 0.4% MC
121 USA Max McGreevy 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.45% 0.34% MC
122 USA Trevor Cone 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.39% 0.28% T65
123 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.24% 0.13% MC
124 USA Brian Stuard 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.16% 0.06% MC
125 USA Cody Gribble 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.59% 0.51% T7
126 USA Ryan Brehm 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.41% 0.32% T65
127 USA Kevin Roy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.24% MC
128 USA Scott Harrington 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% MC
129 USA Andrew Landry 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.17% T45
130 USA Kelly Kraft 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.16% MC
131 USA Jason Dufner 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.21% 0.13% T36
132 USA Kyle Stanley 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.17% 0.08% MC
133 USA J.B. Holmes 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.16% 0.07% MC
134 USA Greg Koch 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.25% 0.19% MC
135 USA Jonathan Byrd 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 AUS Cameron Percy 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
137 USA Sean O'Hair 0% 0% 0% 0% T19
138 ARG Estanislao Goya 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 USA Hank Lebioda 0% 0% 0% 0% T58
140 USA Martin Trainer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T45
142 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
143 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Chris Nido 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 Danny Guise 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 USA Peter Knade 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 Nick Gabrelcik 0% 0% 0% 0% T69

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 45.3% 10.6%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 51.5% 15.4%
3 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 74.6% 15.5%
4 Coral 10 @ 1/5 74.6% 15.5%
5 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 34.1% 18.2%
6 Betway 8 @ 1/5 57.6% 20%
7 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 36.6% 20.4%
8 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 38.8% 22.4%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 24%
10 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 24%
11 BoyleSports 6 @ 1/5 39.6% 25.3%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 25.8%
13 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 25.8%
14 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 32%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.6% 37.9%
16 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 53.6% 37.9%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.8% 39%
18 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 56.4% 40.5%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 59.6% 40.8%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 60.2% 41.2%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60.2% 43.9%