Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100.1

Portugal Masters

27/10/2022 - 30/10/2022

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 SCO Robert MacIntyre 14 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.85% 0.78% -5.07% T18
2 ENG Jordan L Smith 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.17% 0.66% -4.51% 1
3 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 20 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.18% 0.97% -3.21% MC
4 FRA Victor Perez 20 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 4.18% 0.69% -3.5% MC
5 FRA Antoine Rozner 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.82% 0.67% -3.14% T8
6 GER Yannik Paul 25 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.38% 0.76% -2.62% T63
7 ENG Eddie Pepperell 28 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 3.03% 0.93% -2.1% 4
8 ENG Andy Sullivan 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 3.03% 0.85% -2.18% T59
9 ENG Matt Wallace 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 3.03% 0.74% -2.29% T43
10 FRA Matthieu Pavon 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.14% 0.94% -1.2% MC
11 GER Marcel Schneider 40 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.14% 0.88% -1.26% T8
12 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.09% 0.8% -1.29% MC
13 ENG Paul Waring 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 2% 0.77% -1.23% MC
14 ENG Matthew Jordan 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.91% 0.96% -0.95% T34
15 ENG Tom Lewis 50 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.72% 1.05% -0.67% MC
16 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 50 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.72% 0.93% -0.8% MC
17 MAS Gavin Green 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.72% 0.89% -0.83% 2
18 GER Hurly Long 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.72% 0.64% -1.08% T5
19 SWE Joakim Lagergren 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.66% 0.95% -0.7% T43
20 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.57% 0.89% -0.68% 3
21 ESP Jorge Campillo 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.57% 0.67% -0.9% MC
22 ENG Marcus Armitage 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.51% 0.91% -0.6% MC
23 SCO Grant Forrest 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.31% 0.92% -0.39% MC 5.91
24 ENG Matthew Southgate 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.29% 0.96% -0.33% T57 5.82
25 USA John Catlin 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.29% 0.85% -0.44% MC 5.82
26 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.2% 0.89% -0.32% T57 5.42
27 POR Ricardo Gouveia 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.16% 1.01% -0.14% MC 5.21
28 FIN Mikko Korhonen 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.16% 0.61% -0.55% T8 5.21
29 ENG Dale Whitnell 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.08% 1.03% -0.06% T43 4.89
30 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.08% 0.92% -0.16% T34 4.89
31 NED Wil Besseling 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.08% 0.76% -0.32% T51 4.89
32 AUT Lukas Nemecz 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.02% 0.93% -0.1% T34 4.6
33 SWE Marcus Kinhult 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.96% 0.87% -0.09% T34 4.35
34 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.91% 0.76% -0.16% T27 4.12
35 ENG Oliver Wilson 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.87% 0.77% -0.1% T51 3.92
36 FRA Julien Brun 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.83% 0.83% 0% T34 3.73
37 THA Jazz Janewattananond 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.83% 0.77% -0.06% T61 3.73
38 ENG Ross Fisher 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.83% 0.76% -0.07% T18 3.73
39 AUS Jason Scrivener 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.83% 0.67% -0.16% T18 3.73
40 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.79% 1.03% 0.24% T34 3.57
41 ENG Jack Senior 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.76% 1.12% 0.37% MC 3.41
42 ITA Renato Paratore 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.76% 1.11% 0.35% T18 3.41
43 DEN Jeff Winther 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.76% 0.96% 0.2% T27 3.41
44 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.02% 0.31% MC 3.19
45 SCO Marc Warren 125 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 1.02% 0.32% T66 3.14
46 ENG Andrew Johnston 125 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.7% 0.01% -0.69%
47 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.66% 0.99% 0.34% T15
48 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.61% 1.05% 0.44% T43
49 ITA Edoardo Molinari 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.61% 0.89% 0.28% T15
50 ESP Nacho Elvira 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.61% 0.87% 0.27% MC
51 FIN Sami Valimaki 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.61% 0.73% 0.12% T27
52 ARG Daniel Vancsik 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.61% 0.01% -0.6%
53 SCO Calum Hill 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 0.3% -0.28% MC
54 ITA Francesco Laporta 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.57% 0.99% 0.42% MC
55 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.57% 0.93% 0.36% 71
56 SCO David Law 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.57% 0.8% 0.23% T34
57 NED Joost Luiten 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.54% 0.81% 0.27% 7
58 NED Darius Van Driel 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.51% 1.1% 0.59% T18
59 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.51% 0.81% 0.3% T15
60 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.44% 0.8% 0.37% T51
61 ESP Alvaro Quiros 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.4% 1% 0.6%
62 NED Daan Huizing 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.4% 0.98% 0.58% MC
63 GER Marcel Siem 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.4% 0.98% 0.58% T43
64 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.4% 0.82% 0.42% T18
65 ENG Andrew Wilson 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.37% 1.06% 0.69% T43
66 FRA Frederic LaCroix 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.37% 0.99% 0.63% T12
67 SCO Stephen Gallacher 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.37% 0.85% 0.49%
68 NOR Espen Kofstad 249 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.5/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.89% 0.53% T43
69 SWE Niklas Lemke 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 1.19% 0.85% T51
70 ENG Daniel Gavins 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.34% 1.1% 0.76% T63
71 ESP Pep Angles Ros 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.97% 0.66% WD
72 SCO Craig Howie 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.27% 1.18% 0.91% MC
73 FRA Victor Dubuisson 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.83% 0.56%
74 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.25% 1.02% 0.77% MC
75 ENG David Horsey 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.22% 1.17% 0.95% T61
76 ITA Nino Bertasio 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.53% 0.31% MC
77 GER Sebastian Heisele 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.63% 0.42% T5
78 ENG Steven Brown 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.2% 1.05% 0.85% MC
79 CAN Aaron Cockerill 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.85% 0.66% T27
80 ENG Garrick Porteous 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.82% 0.62% T18
81 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 1.06% 0.86% T68
82 RSA Richard Sterne 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.03% 0.85% T27
83 SWE Rikard Karlberg 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 1.09% 0.91% T18
84 AUS Maverick Antcliff 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1.15% 0.98% T34
85 FRA Benjamin Hebert 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.17% 1% 0.83% T18
86 RSA Darren Fichardt 527 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.8/1) 0.19% 0.17% 1.05% 0.88% MC
87 ENG Ross McGowan 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.96% 0.8% T66
88 CHI Hugo Leon 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.16% 1.08% 0.92%
89 AUS Scott Hend 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.15% 1.02% 0.87% T68
90 KOR Taehee Lee 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.15% 0.39% 0.24% T27
91 ITA Filippo Celli 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.14% 0.87% 0.73% T27
92 ENG Ashley Chesters 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.13% 1.11% 0.98% T51
93 POR Ricardo Santos 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.97% 0.84% T59
94 USA Julian Suri 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.13% 1.21% 1.08% MC
95 ENG Chris Wood 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 1.04% 0.92% T72
96 SCO David Drysdale 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.16% 1.07% T8
97 FRA Joel Stalter 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.16% 1.07% T12
98 WAL Oliver Farr 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.09% 1% MC
99 ENG Richard McEvoy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.06% 0.96% MC
100 ENG Jack Singh Brar 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.01% 0.92% MC
101 FRA Robin Roussel 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.98% 0.88% T51
102 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.96% 0.87% MC
103 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.95% 0.86% MC
104 POR Pedro Figueiredo 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.17% MC
105 POR Tomas Guimaraes Bessa 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.08% 70
106 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 1.17% 1.08% MC
107 ENG Oliver Fisher 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.99% 0.9% MC
108 ENG Chris Paisley 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.82% 0.73% MC
109 POR Vitor Lopes 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.08% MC
110 POR Tomas Melo Gouveia 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.08% MC
111 ITA Andrea Pavan 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.96% 0.91% MC
112 ENG Graeme Storm 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.99% 0.94% MC
113 CHN Zhang Huilin 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.98% 0.93% MC
114 NIR Cormac Sharvin 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.87% 0.82% MC
115 ENG David Howell 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.04% 0.67% 0.63% T63
116 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
117 FRA Gregory Havret 0% 0% 0% 0% T72
118 ESP Carlos Pigem 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
119 NZL Daniel Hillier 0% 0% 0% 0% T12
120 RSA Wilco Nienaber 0% 0% 0% 0% T43
121 POR Pedro Lencart Silva 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
122 Noah Brunner 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
123 Hugo Camelo Ferriera 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11.3% 11.3%
2 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 37.8% 21.2%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 41.4% 24.3%
4 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 41.1% 26.3%
5 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 27.7%
6 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 47.8% 30%
7 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 47.8% 30%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 59% 30.6%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 64.9% 35.5%
10 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 64.9% 35.5%
11 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 65.6% 36%
12 Coral 7 @ 1/5 65.6% 36%
13 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.1%
14 VBet 5 @ 1/4 56.6% 37.8%
15 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 56.8% 38%
16 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 54.6% 38.4%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 55.5% 39.2%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56.1% 39.8%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.3% 40%
20 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 56.3% 40%
21 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 57.1% 40.7%
22 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 62.5% 45.5%