Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 4.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 140.1

Total Profit: +40

Portugal Masters

04/11/2021 - 07/11/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 5.38% 1.81% -3.58% MC
2 BEL Thomas Pieters 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.98% 1.68% -2.3% 1
3 AUS Minwoo Lee 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.52% 2.81% -0.71% T8
4 ENG Laurie Canter 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.52% 2.08% -1.44% MC
5 SCO Robert MacIntyre 28 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 3.16% 1.89% -1.27% 64
6 ENG Sam Horsfield 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.95% 1.49% -1.46% T12
7 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.69% 1.88% -0.81% T47
8 ENG Andrew Johnston 35 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.9/1) 2.78% 2.54% 1.79% -0.75% T47
9 RSA George Coetzee 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.54% 0.61% -1.93% T59
10 ENG Richard Bland 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.18% 3.98% 1.8% T8 9.73
11 ENG Jordan L Smith 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.99% 1.87% -0.12% T41
12 SCO Calum Hill 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.99% 1.46% -0.53% WD
13 ESP Adria Arnaus 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.99% 1.11% -0.88% T8
14 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.79% 2.45% 0.65% T2 (tied w/3) 8.01 +44.1
15 USA John Catlin 50 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.79% 1.25% -0.55% T22
16 ITA Renato Paratore 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.63% 1.64% 0% MC
17 ENG Andy Sullivan 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.63% 0.9% -0.74% T54
18 USA Sean Crocker 60 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.5% 1.43% -0.07% T17
19 ENG Callum Shinkwin 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.5% 0.71% -0.79% T17
20 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 61 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.2/1) 1.61% 1.48% 1.27% -0.2% T49
21 NED Wil Besseling 61 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.2/1) 1.61% 1.48% 1.02% -0.46% T43
22 SCO Grant Forrest 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.37% 2.17% 0.81% T22 6.1
23 FIN Mikko Korhonen 66 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13/1) 1.49% 1.37% 1.69% 0.32% T54 6.1
24 WAL Jamie Donaldson 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.37% 1.57% 0.21% T51 6.1
25 ENG Matthew Jordan 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.37% 1.4% 0.04% T5 (tied w/2) 6.1 +26.7
26 FRA Victor Dubuisson 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.37% 1.3% -0.07% WD
27 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 66 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13/1) 1.49% 1.37% 1.01% -0.36% MC
28 FRA Romain Langasque 66 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.37% 0.69% -0.68% T26
29 FRA Antoine Rozner 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.37% 0.63% -0.73% T36
30 ENG Eddie Pepperell 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.2% 0.81% -0.4% MC
31 NED Joost Luiten 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.13% 1.44% 0.31% MC 5.05
32 ENG Marcus Armitage 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.13% 1.21% 0.08% T36 5.05
33 FRA Victor Perez 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.13% 0.93% -0.2% T8
34 FRA Julien Guerrier 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.13% 0.81% -0.32% MC
35 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.13% 0.35% -0.78% T41
36 ENG Jack Senior 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.06% 1.03% -0.04% T32
37 ESP Jorge Campillo 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.06% 0.91% -0.16% MC
38 FRA Alexander Levy 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 1.01% 0.99% -0.02% T36
39 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.96% 1.26% 0.29% T36 4.3
40 ESP Adrian Otaegui 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.96% 1.15% 0.18% MC 4.3
41 SWE Alexander Bjork 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.96% 1.03% 0.07% T30 4.3
42 SCO Richie Ramsay 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.91% 1.3% 0.39% T43 4.05
43 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.91% 1.04% 0.14% MC 4.05
44 FIN Kalle Samooja 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.91% 0.71% -0.19% T54
45 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.91% 0.54% -0.37% T54
46 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.82% 1.08% 0.26% T17 3.68
47 THA Jazz Janewattananond 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.8% 1.25% 0.45% T51 3.59
48 ESP Alvaro Quiros 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.8% 1.17% 0.36% MC 3.59
49 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.8% 0.61% -0.19% MC
50 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.74% 0.82% 0.08% T2 (tied w/3) 3.3 +35
51 ENG Daniel Gavins 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.73% 0.84% 0.11% MC 3.25
52 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.73% 0.78% 0.05% T54 3.25
53 RSA Justin Walters 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.73% 0.61% -0.12% T26
54 SWE Niklas Lemke 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.73% 0.52% -0.21% T43
55 ITA Nino Bertasio 130 (DraftKings: 1 @ 1/1) 0.76% 0.7% 0.74% 0.04% T5 3.12
56 FRA Matthieu Pavon 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.69% 0.94% 0.26% T2 (tied w/3) 3.08 +34.3
57 SCO Connor Syme 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.69% 0.7% 0.01% MC
58 ITA Francesco Laporta 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.61% 1.37% 0.76% 7
59 ESP Nacho Elvira 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.61% 0.95% 0.35% T49
60 ENG Ross Fisher 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.61% 0.59% -0.01% T30
61 ITA Edoardo Molinari 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.54% 1.82% 1.28% T22
62 ENG David Horsey 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.54% 1.24% 0.71% T12
63 ESP Pep Angles Ros 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.54% 0.67% 0.13% T26
64 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.52% 1.14% 0.62% T12
65 FIN Sami Valimaki 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.52% 0.6% 0.08% MC
66 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.44% 1.61% 1.17% T12
67 SCO David Law 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.44% 1% 0.56% T59
68 ENG Matthew Southgate 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.4% 0.84% 0.44% WD
69 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.36% 0.73% 0.36% MC
70 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.36% 0.45% 0.09% MC
71 ENG Robert Rock 256 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.5/1) 0.39% 0.36% 0.71% 0.35% MC
72 MAS Gavin Green 256 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.5/1) 0.39% 0.36% 0.4% 0.05% T17
73 ENG Jack Singh Brar 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.33% 0.24% -0.09% MC
74 ENG Steven Brown 284 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.6/1) 0.35% 0.32% 0.53% 0.21% T43
75 FRA Benjamin Hebert 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.3% 0.67% 0.36% T22
76 SCO Stephen Gallacher 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.29% 0.64% 0.35% T32
77 SWE Marcus Kinhult 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.29% 0.41% 0.12% MC
78 SCO Marc Warren 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 0.6% 0.32% 65
79 USA Julian Suri 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.27% 0.41% 0.14% MC
80 GER Maximilian Kieffer 360 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.6/1) 0.28% 0.25% 0.83% 0.58% T36
81 ENG Oliver Wilson 436 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.2/1) 0.23% 0.21% 0.62% 0.41% T12
82 ENG Ashley Chesters 446 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.2/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.92% 0.71% 63
83 ENG Chris Wood 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.19% 0.5% 0.31% T32
84 SCO David Drysdale 531 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.2/1) 0.19% 0.17% 0.49% 0.32% MC
85 ENG Chris Paisley 550 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.9/1) 0.18% 0.17% 0.47% 0.3% MC
86 ENG Oliver Fisher 636 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.7/1) 0.16% 0.14% 0.66% 0.52% MC
87 ENG Ross McGowan 645 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.14% 0.78% 0.64% WD
88 RSA James Du Preez Jnr 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.24% 0.12% MC
89 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 778 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.8/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.3% 0.18% T26
90 POR Ricardo Santos 788 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.6/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.64% 0.53% T32
91 POR Vitor Lopes 911 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 99.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% 61
92 SWE Peter Hanson 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.66% 0.57% 53
93 ENG David Howell 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.6% 0.51% MC
94 FRA Robin Roussel 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.46% 0.36% MC
95 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.42% 0.33% MC
96 FRA Joel Stalter 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.39% 0.29% MC
97 DEN Thomas Bjorn 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.39% 0.29% MC
98 POR Pedro Figueiredo 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.38% 0.29% MC
99 ENG Graeme Storm 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.28% 0.18% MC
100 ENG Richard McEvoy 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
101 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.2% 0.11% MC
102 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
103 POR Tomas Melo Gouveia 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.24% 0.15% 62
104 WAL Oliver Farr 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
105 POR Jose-Filipe Lima 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
106 NIR Cormac Sharvin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
107 POR Pedro Clare Neves 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 4.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.6% 8.6%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 30.4% 14.4%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 50.8% 23.5%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 50.8% 23.5%
5 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 27.1%
6 VBet 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 27.9%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 47.3% 31.5%
8 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 31.8%
9 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 31.8%
10 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 31.8%
11 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 48.6% 32.7%
12 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 32.9%
13 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 65% 35.2%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 51.6% 35.4%
15 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 51.6% 35.4%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.9% 35.7%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 37.7%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 37.9%
19 Betway 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 38.2%
20 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 54.8% 38.3%