Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 18.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 240.1

Total Profit: +140

Hero Open

05/08/2021 - 08/08/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Andy Sullivan 16 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.8% 1.35% -3.45% T48
2 ENG Marcus Armitage 22 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 1.33% -2.21% T38
3 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.14% 2.08% -1.06% T23
4 NZL Ryan Fox 25 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.14% 1.29% -1.84% T34
5 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 25 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.14% 1.06% -2.07% T16
6 ESP Adrian Otaegui 28 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.81% 0.83% -1.98% T38
7 SCO Richie Ramsay 33 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 1.38% -1.01% T28
8 SCO Calum Hill 33 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 1.02% -1.38% T4
9 ENG Eddie Pepperell 33 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 0.67% -1.73% MC
10 SCO Connor Syme 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.27% 2.3% 0.03% MC 9.35
11 ENG Matthew Southgate 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.27% 1.18% -1.09% 33
12 NED Wil Besseling 45 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% 1.37% -0.4% T30
13 NZL Daniel Hillier 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 3.42% 1.82% T23 6.6
14 GER Marcel Siem 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 1.6% 0% T56 6.6
15 WAL Jamie Donaldson 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 1.58% -0.02% T34 6.6
16 SCO David Law 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 1.48% -0.12% T4 (tied w/2) 6.6 +36.3
17 ENG David Horsey 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% 1.16% -0.44% MC
18 CHI Hugo Leon 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.46% 1.51% 0.05% T16 6.01
19 NED Darius Van Driel 55 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 1.26% -0.2% T53
20 ENG Matthew Jordan 55 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 0.98% -0.47% T6
21 ENG Daniel Gavins 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.72% 0.5% T38 5.03
22 ESP Nacho Elvira 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.49% 0.28% MC 5.03
23 FRA Benjamin Hebert 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 1.04% -0.18% MC
24 ENG Ashley Chesters 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.96% -0.26% T48
25 ITA Renato Paratore 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.88% -0.33% T56
26 ENG Dale Whitnell 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 1.46% 0.31% T68 4.74
27 ENG Callum Shinkwin 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 1.04% -0.11% T16
28 SWE Marcus Kinhult 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.29% -0.86% T68
29 GER Matthias Schmid 75 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.07% 1.44% 0.36% MC 4.43
30 ENG Garrick Porteous 75 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.07% 0.89% -0.18% T10
31 ITA Francesco Laporta 75 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.07% 0.68% -0.4% MC
32 IND Shubhankar Sharma 75 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.07% 0.4% -0.68% T16
33 SCO Grant Forrest 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.05% 0.04% 1 4.16 +203.8
34 FRA Alexander Levy 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.98% -0.03% T38 4.16
35 ENG Ross Fisher 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.95% -0.06% T56 4.16
36 DEN Jeff Winther 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.92% -0.08% MC 4.16
37 WAL Oliver Farr 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.85% -0.16% T30
38 RSA Justin Walters 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.84% -0.16% T8
39 ESP Alejandro Canizares 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.83% -0.18% T70
40 ENG Chris Paisley 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.73% -0.28% T10
41 USA Paul Peterson 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.71% -0.3% MC
42 ENG James Morrison 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.53% -0.47% 2
43 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 1.45% 0.55% MC 3.7
44 USA Sihwan Kim 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 1.23% 0.34% T10 3.7
45 ESP Jorge Campillo 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 0.97% 0.08% T34 3.7
46 NZL Josh Geary 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.9% 0.56% -0.33% MC
47 AUS Scott Hend 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.12% 0.32% T56 3.34
48 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.54% -0.26% T30
49 SCO Scott Jamieson 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.52% -0.29% MC
50 SCO Marc Warren 110 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.73% 0.44% -0.3% MC
51 SCO Craig Howie 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 1.27% 0.63% T23 2.68
52 IRL Niall Kearney 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.86% 0.22% T8 2.68
53 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.81% 0.16% MC 2.68
54 ENG Paul Waring 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.46% -0.18% MC
55 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 1.11% 0.57% MC
56 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 1.04% 0.5% MC
57 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 150 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.82% 0.28% T10
58 NIR Cormac Sharvin 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.75% 0.21% MC
59 ENG Chris Wood 150 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.7% 0.16% MC
60 ENG Robert Rock 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.41% -0.13% MC
61 SCO David Drysdale 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.4% -0.14% T38
62 SWE Niklas Lemke 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 0.6% 0.13% MC
63 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 0.32% -0.15% MC
64 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 1.17% 0.76% T38
65 RSA Bryce Easton 200 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.92% 0.52% T10
66 ENG Richard McEvoy 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.68% 0.27% T23
67 SCO Stephen Gallacher 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.57% 0.17% MC
68 SWE Anton Karlsson 200 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.32% -0.08% T63
69 ENG Matthew Baldwin 225 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% 0.78% 0.42% T56
70 POR Ricardo Santos 225 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% 0.72% 0.36% T63
71 USA Julian Suri 225 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% 0.61% 0.25% MC
72 FRA Clement Sordet 225 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% 0.38% 0.02% MC
73 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 225 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% 0.31% -0.05% MC
74 NIR Tom McKibbin 250 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.72% 0.39% MC
75 ENG David Coupland 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.65% 0.33% MC
76 ENG Oliver Fisher 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.63% 0.31% MC
77 ESP Pep Angles Ros 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.5% 0.18% MC
78 WAL Rhys Enoch 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.46% 0.14% T72
79 ENG Toby Tree 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.44% 0.12% T16
80 FRA Adrien Saddier 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.43% 0.1% MC
81 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.4% 0.07% T63
82 GER Max Schmitt 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.33% 0% MC
83 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.29% -0.03% MC
84 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 300 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 1.03% 0.76% T38
85 AUS Austin Bautista 300 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.76% 0.49% T72
86 ENG Jordan Wrisdale 300 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.72% 0.45% MC
87 ENG Ben Evans 300 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.41% 0.14% MC
88 SCO Ryan Lumsden 300 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.36% 0.09% MC
89 ENG Oliver Wilson 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.35% 0.08% MC
90 WAL Bradley Dredge 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% T38
91 KOR Yikeun Chang 350 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.71% 0.48% T23
92 ESP Alvaro Quiros 350 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.55% 0.32% T16
93 GER Bernd Ritthammer 350 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% MC
94 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 350 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% MC
95 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 350 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.37% 0.13% T28
96 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 1.19% 0.99% T34
97 NED Lars Van Meijel 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.61% 0.41% T48
98 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.54% 0.34% 75
99 FRA Romain Wattel 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.36% 0.16% MC
100 ENG David Dixon 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.33% 0.13% MC
101 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.33% 0.13% MC
102 ENG Lee Slattery 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.32% 0.11% T38
103 FRA Joel Stalter 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.98% 0.81% WD
104 IND Ajeetesh Sandhu 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.52% 0.36% MC
105 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.44% 0.28% MC
106 IMN Tom Gandy 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.42% 0.26% MC
107 AUS Deyen Lawson 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.24% MC
108 ENG David Howell 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.38% 0.22% MC
109 USA Berry Henson 500 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.38% 0.21% T10
110 AUS Jake McLeod 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.34% 0.18% T70
111 ENG Matt Ford 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.33% 0.17% T16
112 POR Pedro Figueiredo 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.33% 0.17% T63
113 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.33% 0.16% T53
114 FRA Damien Perrier 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.32% 0.16% T48
115 ENG Laird Shepherd 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.32% 0.16% MC
116 IND Shiv Kapur 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.31% 0.15% MC
117 FRA Gary Stal 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.31% 0.15% T72
118 IRL Paul Dunne 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.3% 0.14% MC
119 SWE Philip Eriksson 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.28% 0.12% MC
120 ENG Graeme Storm 600 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% MC
121 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.38% 0.27% MC
122 SWE Jesper Sandborg 750 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.34% 0.23% MC
123 ESP Carlos Pigem 750 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.33% 0.22% T56
124 SCO Daniel Young 750 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% T53
125 IRL Gavin Moynihan 750 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% T48
126 SCO Liam Johnston 1000 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.43% 0.35% MC
127 USA Tyler Koivisto 1000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.42% 0.34% T38
128 ITA Aron Zemmer 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.38% 0.3% MC
129 FIN Janne Kaske 1000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.35% 0.27% MC
130 ENG Robin Williams 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.34% 0.26% MC
131 SCO Euan Walker 1000 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.34% 0.26% MC
132 SCO Chris Doak 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
133 SCO Graham Fox 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.25% MC
134 THA Suradit Yongcharoenchai (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0% 0% 0.45% 0% MC
135 SCO Paul O'Hara (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0% 0% 0.31% 0% MC
136 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% 3
140 USA Chase Hanna 0% 0% 0% 0% T6
141 ENG Jake Bolton 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 ENG Frank Kennedy 0% 0% 0% 0% T63

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 18.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 26.2%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 51.8% 27%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 51.8% 27%
4 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.4%
5 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.4%
6 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.4%
7 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.4%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 28.1%
9 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 41.6% 29%
10 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45.4% 32.4%
11 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58.8% 32.8%
12 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 59.3% 33.3%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 48% 34.8%
14 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 39.1%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.7% 40%