Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 67.7

Total Profit: -32.4

Alfred Dunhill Championship

28/11/2020 - 01/12/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Brandon Stone 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.71% 1.64% -4.07% T23
2 SCO Robert MacIntyre 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.95% 3.85% -1.09% T6
3 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.36% 1.62% -2.75% 1
4 RSA Wilco Nienaber 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.23% 1.65% -1.57% 12
5 RSA George Coetzee 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.56% 2.38% -0.18% MC
6 RSA Shaun Norris 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.56% 1.25% -1.31% MC
7 ENG Eddie Pepperell 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.56% 0.97% -1.59% T64
8 RSA Garrick Higgo 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 2.19% 0.01% MC 9.43
9 ENG Laurie Canter 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 2.12% -0.06% MC 9.43
10 AUT Matthias Schwab 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 1.24% -0.95% T13
11 NED Joost Luiten 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 1.11% -1.07% T31
12 ENG Marcus Armitage 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.06% 1.51% -0.55% T6
13 USA Johannes Veerman 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.06% 1.15% -0.92% T25
14 ENG Matthew Jordan 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 1.83% 0.02% T25 7.82
15 ESP Adrian Otaegui 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 1.14% -0.67% T20
16 SCO Scott Jamieson 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 1.02% -0.79% T6
17 ESP Adria Arnaus 40 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 0.64% -1.17% T6
18 RSA Darren Fichardt 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.61% 1.66% 0.04% T55 6.97
19 WAL Jamie Donaldson 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.61% 1.41% -0.2% MC
20 RSA Dean Burmester 45 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.61% 0.99% -0.62% MC
21 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.61% 0.88% -0.74% T39
22 MAS Gavin Green 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.61% 0.75% -0.86% T47
23 ESP Jorge Campillo 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.45% 1.36% -0.1% MC 6.29
24 RSA Zander Lombard 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.45% 0.45% -1.01% MC
25 NED Wil Besseling 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.33% 1.57% 0.24% T13 5.73
26 RSA Richard Sterne 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.33% 0.27% -1.06% T47
27 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.22% 1.12% -0.1% T2
28 ENG Richard Bland 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.36% 0.25% T2 (tied w/4) 4.79 +34
29 RSA Louis de Jager 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.25% 0.14% MC 4.79
30 SCO Connor Syme 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.11% 1.04% -0.07% MC 4.79
31 ENG David Horsey 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 1.34% 0.3% T31 4.52
32 IND Shubhankar Sharma 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 0.86% -0.19% MC
33 RSA Jacques Blaauw 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 2.8% 1.88% MC 3.96
34 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.26% 0.35% T23 3.96
35 USA Sean Crocker 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.89% -0.02% T2 (tied w/4) 3.96 +33.7
36 SCO Calum Hill 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.77% -0.15% T13
37 RSA Bryce Easton 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.76% -0.16% MC
38 USA Julian Suri 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.41% -0.5% T35
39 RSA MJ Daffue 90 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 0.89% 0.08% MC 3.53
40 CAN Aaron Cockerill 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 0.84% 0.03% MC 3.53
41 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 0.72% -0.09% 11
42 ENG Steven Brown 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.9% 0.17% T51 3.18
43 FRA Alexander Levy 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.59% -0.14% T6
44 RSA Jaco Ahlers 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.27% -0.47% MC
45 RSA Justin Walters 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.67% 0.72% 0.05% T25 2.89
46 FRA Matthieu Pavon 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.67% 0.58% -0.09% T57 2.89
47 RSA Neil Schietekat 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.66% 1.07% MC 2.55
48 SWE Joel Sjoholm 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.68% 0.09% MC 2.55
49 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.62% 0.03% MC 2.55
50 ZIM Scott Vincent 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 0.49% -0.03% T17
51 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.54% 1.05% MC
52 RSA Martin Rohwer 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.18% 0.69% T44
53 POL Adrian Meronk 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 1.09% 0.6% T2
54 ENG Ben Stow 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.82% 0.33% MC
55 FRA Joel Stalter 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.62% 0.12% MC
56 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.43% -0.06% MC
57 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.36% -0.13% MC
58 RSA Keith Horne 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.27% -0.23% MC
59 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.27% -0.23% 54
60 RSA JC Ritchie 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.23% -0.26% MC
61 FRA Julien Guerrier 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.46% 0.68% 0.22% MC
62 SCO David Drysdale 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.46% 0.38% -0.08% MC
63 NED Lars Van Meijel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.42% 0.64% 0.22% MC
64 ESP Nacho Elvira 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.4% -0.02% MC
65 BRA Adilson da Silva 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.42% 0.27% -0.16% MC
66 RSA MJ Viljoen 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.27% -0.16% T51
67 ENG Dale Whitnell 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 1.27% 0.91% T17
68 ENG Toby Tree 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.85% 0.48% MC
69 WAL Oliver Farr 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.64% 0.28% T20
70 ENG Jack Senior 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.55% 0.18% MC
71 ESP Alvaro Quiros 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.35% -0.02% MC
72 RSA Thriston Lawrence 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.1% MC
73 RSA Casey Jarvis 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.24% -0.13% MC
74 ENG Ross McGowan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 1.11% 0.81% MC
75 NED Darius Van Driel 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.88% 0.58% T44
76 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.76% 0.47% MC
77 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.41% 0.11% MC
78 ENG Oliver Wilson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.29% -0.01% T13
79 RSA Oliver Bekker 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% T31
80 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% MC
81 ENG Chris Wood 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.23% -0.06% T39
82 SCO David Law 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.23% -0.06% MC
83 ENG Garrick Porteous 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 1.01% 0.76% T47
84 ENG Oliver Fisher 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.41% 0.16% MC
85 WAL Rhys Enoch 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.33% 0.08% MC
86 GER Marcel Siem 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.32% 0.08% T35
87 ENG Steve Surry 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 3.5% 3.29% T51
88 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 1.12% 0.91% T39
89 NIR Cormac Sharvin 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.5% 0.29% T25
90 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.05% T25
91 RSA Jbe Kruger 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.25% 0.04% T35
92 ENG Richard McEvoy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.24% 0.03% T25
93 RSA Haydn Porteous 350 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.19% -0.02% MC
94 FRA Robin Roussel 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.49% 0.31% T31
95 POR Ricardo Santos 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.34% 0.15% MC
96 ESP Carlos Pigem 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.62% 0.47% MC
97 SWE Philip Eriksson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% T39
98 RSA Hennie Otto 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
99 RSA Trevor Fisher Jr 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T60
100 RSA Christiaan Basson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T35
101 RSA Keenan Davidse 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
102 RSA Daniel Greene 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
103 RSA Ruan Korb 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
104 RSA Anton Haig 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
105 RSA Jake Redman 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
106 RSA Deon Germishuys 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
107 ENG Jack Harrison 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% MC
108 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% MC
109 POR Pedro Figueiredo 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% T17
110 RSA Alex Haindl 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.14% WD
111 RSA Anthony Michael 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.14% T47
112 RSA Louis Albertse 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.14% MC
113 ENG David Howell 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
114 SWE Anton Karlsson 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
115 RSA Jean Hugo 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% MC
116 RSA Heinrich Bruiners 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% MC
117 RSA Jaco Prinsloo 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% MC
118 RSA Jean-Paul Strydom 750 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% T60
119 RSA James Du Preez Jnr 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% T57
120 RSA Merrick Bremner 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.19% MC
121 RSA Jake Roos 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.19% MC
122 RSA Ockie Strydom 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.19% T57
123 RSA Estiaan Conradie 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.19% MC
124 ENG Joe Long 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.19% MC
125 USA Chris Cannon 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.24% 0.17% MC
126 RSA Tristen Strydom 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.24% 0.17% MC
127 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.15% WD
128 RSA Callum Mowat 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% MC
129 RSA Riekus Nortje 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% MC
130 RSA Luke Jerling 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% MC
131 RSA Dylan Naidoo 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% T60
132 RSA Ruan de Smidt 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.23% MC
133 RSA Toto Thimba 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.23% MC
134 ZIM Benjamin Follett-Smith 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.23% T64
135 RSA Albert Venter 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% MC
136 RSA Musiwalo Nethunzwi 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% MC
137 RSA Stefan Wears Taylor 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% MC
138 RSA James Kingston 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% T44
139 RSA JJ Senekal 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
140 RSA Ruan Conradie 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% 63
141 RSA CJ du Plessis 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
142 POR Stephen Ferreira 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.25% 0.22% MC
143 RSA Michael Hollick 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.24% 0.21% MC
144 RSA Teaghan Gauche 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.24% 0.21% MC
145 RSA Thanda Mavundla 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.27% 0.25% MC
146 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T39
147 AUS Andrew Evans 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 CHI Matias Calderon 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 RSA Rourke Van der Spuy 0% 0% 0% 0% T55
150 RSA Michael Palmer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 RSA Sean Bradley 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 ENG Jake Bolton 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 RSA Siyanda Mwandla 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 ENG Thomas Plumb 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 56.4% 21%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 59.2% 23.2%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 61.8% 25.3%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 61.8% 25.3%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 63.4% 26.5%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.2%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 60.2% 34.1%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 62.8% 36.3%
9 VBet 5 @ 1/4 54.4% 37.7%
10 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.4%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.4%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.4%
13 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.4%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.9% 43.9%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 57.9% 43.9%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58.2% 44.2%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 62% 47.6%
18 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 62% 47.7%