Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 40.7

Total Profit: -59.4

The American Express

21/01/2021 - 24/01/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Patrick Cantlay 14 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.71% 2.37% -2.33% 2
2 USA Patrick Reed 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.15% 3.3% -0.86% MC
3 USA Scottie Scheffler 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.15% 2.51% -1.65% MC
4 USA Brooks Koepka 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.72% 2.23% -1.48% MC
5 USA Tony Finau 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.36% 3.25% -0.12% 4
6 KOR Sungjae Im 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.36% 2.53% -0.83% T12
7 USA Matthew Wolff 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.07% 1.57% -1.5% T40
8 MEX Abraham Ancer 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 2.58% -0.14% T5
9 USA Russell Henley 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.28% 2.44% 0.17% MC 10.08
10 USA Cameron Champ 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.96% 2.19% 0.22% MC 8.68
11 USA Kevin Na 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.96% 1.79% -0.17% MC
12 USA Rickie Fowler 40 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.72% 0.76% -0.96% T21
13 ENG Paul Casey 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.53% 1.73% 0.19% T8 (tied w/4) 6.8 +8.5
14 KOR Siwoo Kim 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.08% -0.3% 1
15 USA Sam Burns 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 0.7% -0.68% MC
16 USA Lanto Griffin 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 1.26% 0% MC 5.58
17 USA Brian Harman 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 1.19% -0.07% T8
18 USA Aaron Wise 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 1.36% 0.2% MC 5.13
19 USA Zach Johnson 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 1.27% 0.11% T62 5.13
20 ARG Emiliano Grillo 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 1.06% -0.1% T37
21 USA Patton Kizzire 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.82% -0.34% 53
22 USA Adam Long 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 2.08% 1.02% 69 4.67
23 USA Talor Gooch 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.8% -0.25% T21
24 USA Phil Mickelson 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.54% -0.51% MC
25 USA Ryan Moore 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.5% -0.55% MC
26 CAN Adam Hadwin 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.37% -0.68% T32
27 USA Charles Howell III 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 1.12% 0.12% MC 4.4
28 USA Charley Hoffman 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 1.08% 0.09% WD 4.4
29 USA Chris Kirk 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.96% -0.03% T16 4.4
30 RSA Erik van Rooyen 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.74% -0.25% T56
31 USA Keegan Bradley 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.67% -0.32% MC
32 AUT Sepp Straka 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.66% -0.34% MC
33 AUS Cameron Davis 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 0.63% -0.36% 3
34 USA Cameron Tringale 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.41% 0.54% T56 3.86
35 USA Brendan Steele 80 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.76% -0.11% T21
36 USA Gary Woodland 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.76% -0.11% T16
37 USA Doc Redman 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.75% -0.12% 70
38 USA Joel Dahmen 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.73% -0.14% MC
39 USA Lucas Glover 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.57% -0.31% MC
40 SWE Alexander Noren 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 1.56% 0.78% T40 3.44
41 USA Kevin Streelman 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.62% -0.15% MC
42 USA Peter Malnati 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 1.16% 0.47% MC 3.1
43 USA James Hahn 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% T32 3.1
44 USA John Huh 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.75% 0.05% T21 3.1
45 USA Tom Hoge 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.69% -0.01% MC 3.1
46 AUS Matt Jones 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.66% -0.04% T21 3.1
47 USA JT Poston 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.54% -0.16% MC
48 USA Wyndham Clark 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 0.99% 0.35% T54 2.82
49 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.64% 0.79% 0.16% 71 2.82
50 SCO Russell Knox 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 0.42% -0.21% T16
51 USA Michael Thompson 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.06% 0.5% T5 (tied w/3) 2.48 +32.2
52 CAN Nick Taylor 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.72% 0.16% T47 2.48
53 USA Hudson Swafford 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.71% 0.15% MC 2.48
54 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.54% -0.02% MC 2.48
55 USA Matthew NeSmith 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.5% -0.06% MC 2.48
56 USA Scott Piercy 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.49% -0.07% MC
57 ITA Francesco Molinari 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.38% -0.18% T8
58 USA Max Homa 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.36% -0.2% T21
59 SCO Martin Laird 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.35% 0.88% T47
60 USA Andrew Landry 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.85% 0.38% T64
61 RSA Charl Schwartzel 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.66% 0.2% T54
62 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.52% 0.05% T12
63 KOR Byeong Hun An 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.43% -0.04% T8
64 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.39% -0.08% MC
65 USA Kramer Hickok 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.36% -0.11% T21
66 USA Luke List 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.2% -0.27% T21
67 USA Chesson Hadley 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.84% 0.44% MC
68 USA Tyler Duncan 175 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% T56
69 USA Mark Hubbard 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.56% 0.16% MC
70 USA Austin Cook 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.47% 0.07% T32
71 TPE C.T. Pan 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.47% 0.07% MC
72 USA Kyle Stanley 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.46% 0.06% T32
73 USA Vaughn Taylor 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.29% -0.11% T60
74 SWE Henrik Norlander 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.21% -0.19% T12
75 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.73% 0.38% MC
76 USA Scott Stallings 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.53% 0.18% MC
77 USA Brian Stuard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.5% 0.14% T47
78 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.45% 0.1% T37
79 USA Richy Werenski 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.43% 0.08% T21
80 USA Pat Perez 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.42% 0.07% MC
81 USA Brandt Snedeker 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% MC
82 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.31% -0.04% T32
83 USA Jim Herman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.84% 0.56% MC
84 COL Camilo Villegas 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.79% 0.51% MC
85 USA Robby Shelton 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.66% 0.38% MC
86 USA Doug Ghim 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.55% 0.27% T5
87 USA Steve Stricker 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.53% 0.25% MC
88 NZL Danny Lee 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.53% 0.25% MC
89 USA Brice Garnett 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.42% 0.14% MC
90 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% MC
91 AUS Aaron Baddeley 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.02% MC
92 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.26% -0.02% T21
93 USA Ben Martin 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.12% -0.16% T56
94 ENG Harry Hall 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.11% -0.17% T47
95 USA Troy Merritt 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.63% 0.4% MC
96 CAN Roger Sloan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.47% 0.23% T40
97 IND Anirban Lahiri 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% MC
98 USA Akshay Bhatia 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.19% MC
99 USA Bo Hoag 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.14% T16
100 USA Beau Hossler 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.12% MC
101 USA John Augenstein 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.11% MC
102 USA Jason Dufner 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.27% 0.04% MC
103 CHN Zhang Xinjun 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.24% 0.01% MC
104 USA William Gordon 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.21% -0.02% T64
105 USA Brian Gay 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.62% 0.42% MC
106 USA Nate Lashley 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.56% 0.36% MC
107 USA Ryan Armour 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.54% 0.34% T16
108 USA Hank Lebioda 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.38% 0.18% T62
109 USA Bronson Burgoon 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.14% -0.07% T37
110 USA Vincent Whaley 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.41% 0.24% MC
111 AUS Cameron Percy 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.4% 0.22% MC
112 CAN David Hearn 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.25% 0.08% T64
113 USA Grayson Murray 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.01% MC
114 USA Nick Watney 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.18% 0% MC
115 USA Sean O'Hair 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.17% -0.01% MC
116 USA Jamie Lovemark 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.14% -0.04% T40
117 USA Chase Seiffert 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.14% -0.04% T12
118 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.51% 0.37% MC
119 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% T47
120 USA Chris Baker 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
121 USA Scott Brown 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% MC
122 CAN Michael Gligic 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% MC
123 USA J.J Spaun 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% MC
124 USA Tyler McCumber 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% T40
125 USA Joseph Bramlett 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
126 USA Brandon Hagy 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% T21
127 NZL Tim Wilkinson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
128 USA Bill Haas 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
129 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% T60
130 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% T64
131 ENG Luke Donald 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% MC
132 USA Kelly Kraft 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% MC
133 USA Mark Anderson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.15% 0.01% MC
134 USA Sam Ryder 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.15% 0.01% T47
135 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% MC
136 USA Josh Teater 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.11% -0.03% T40
137 KOR Seungyul Noh 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.11% -0.03% MC
138 USA Scott Harrington 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.15% 0.03% MC
139 ARG Fabian Gomez 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.35% 0.26% MC
140 ARG Nelson Ledesma 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.29% 0.19% 68
141 ENG Benjamin Taylor 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.17% 0.07% MC
142 USA Kevin Tway 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.13% 0.04% MC
143 AUS Rhein Gibson 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% T40
144 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% MC
145 USA Martin Trainer 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.07% MC
146 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
147 PUR Rafael Campos 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.06% MC
148 USA Michael Gellerman 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.17% 0.11% MC
149 AUS John Senden 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.12% 0.07% MC
150 USA Bo Van Pelt 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.1% MC
151 USA Michael Block 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.11% 0.08% MC
152 USA Kevin Stadler 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.1% 0.06% MC
153 USA Matt Every 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Steve Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 66.4% 29%
2 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.9% 31.3%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 70.1% 32%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 75.1% 35.9%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 75.1% 35.9%
6 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 73.5% 36.1%
7 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 76% 36.5%
8 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54.7% 37.9%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 58.4% 41.2%
10 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 58.4% 41.2%
11 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 55.1% 41.3%
12 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58% 44%
13 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 62.1% 44.7%
14 VBet 5 @ 1/4 63% 45.4%
15 Betway 7 @ 1/5 75.1% 46.8%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 66.8% 52.1%
17 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 72.7% 54.1%
18 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 72.7% 54.1%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 74.2% 59%