Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 16.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 42.4

Total Profit: -57.7

ISPS HANDA Wales Open

20/08/2020 - 23/08/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 BEL Thomas Pieters 11 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 8.33% 6.32% 0.48% -5.83% T15
2 ENG Sam Horsfield 12 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 5.83% 3.61% -2.22% T44
3 SCO Robert MacIntyre 20 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.61% 1.07% -2.54% T59
4 CHN Hao Tong Li 22 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.3% 1.67% -1.63% T8
5 MAS Gavin Green 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.3% 1.37% -1.93% T8
6 ENG Andrew Johnston 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.3% 0.84% -2.46% T37
7 ENG Jordan L Smith 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.45% 1.58% -0.87% T27
8 NZL Ryan Fox 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.23% 2.74% 0.51% T15 9.56
9 FIN Mikko Korhonen 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.23% 1.64% -0.59% WD
10 ENG Eddie Pepperell 33 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.23% 0.27% -1.96% MC
11 ITA Renato Paratore 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.85% 1.9% 0.05% T27 7.93
12 SWE Marcus Kinhult 40 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.48% -0.37% T15
13 AUS Jason Scrivener 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.85% 1.24% -0.61% T8
14 SWE Alexander Bjork 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 2.3% 0.65% MC 7.07
15 ENG Robert Rock 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 1.33% -0.32% T37
16 USA Sean Crocker 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 1.14% -0.51% T37
17 ENG Ross Fisher 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.65% 0.79% -0.86% MC
18 ESP Adrian Otaegui 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 2.24% 0.75% T37 6.38
19 RSA Wilco Nienaber 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.85% 0.36% MC 6.38
20 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 1.37% -0.12% MC 6.38
21 SCO Connor Syme 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.21% -0.28% T8
22 USA Kurt Kitayama 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 0.72% -0.77% T59
23 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 0.28% -1.2% MC
24 RSA Justin Harding 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 1.21% -0.14% T44
25 RSA Brandon Stone 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 2.15% 0.9% T27 5.33
26 ENG Chris Paisley 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 2.78% 1.65% T27 4.85
27 FIN Sami Valimaki 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 2.5% 1.37% 2 4.85 +42.4
28 DEN Jeff Winther 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.08% -0.05% MC 4.85
29 ENG Aaron Rai 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.83% -0.3% T44
30 FRA Romain Langasque 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.38% -0.76% 1
31 ENG Jack Senior 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.95% 0.01% T63 4.02
32 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.84% -0.1% T53 4.02
33 ZIM Scott Vincent 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.76% -0.18% T68
34 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.37% -0.57% T44
35 ENG Matthew Southgate 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.37% -0.57% T73
36 POL Adrian Meronk 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.28% -0.66% T68
37 NED Wil Besseling 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.52% 0.68% T53 3.58
38 RSA Dean Burmester 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.94% 0.1% T21 3.58
39 AUS Minwoo Lee 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.94% 0.1% MC 3.58
40 USA John Catlin 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.73% -0.1% MC 3.58
41 ENG Matthew Jordan 90 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.58% -0.26% T3
42 ENG Marcus Armitage 100 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.64% 0.88% T27 3.22
43 ITA Guido Migliozzi 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.43% 0.68% MC 3.22
44 GER Maximilian Kieffer 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.6% -0.15% T44
45 ENG Ashley Chesters 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.46% -0.29% T68
46 ENG Callum Shinkwin 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.43% -0.32% T8
47 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.28% -0.4% T5
48 SWE Oscar Lengden 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.55% 0.95% T53 2.58
49 ENG Oliver Fisher 125 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.36% 0.75% T76 2.58
50 NIR Cormac Sharvin 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.56% -0.04% T63 2.58
51 SCO Calum Hill 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.35% -0.25% T8
52 GER Sebastian Heisele 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.33% -0.27% T15
53 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 4.09% 3.59% T8
54 SCO Grant Forrest 150 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.59% 0.09% MC
55 USA Julian Suri 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.26% -0.25% MC
56 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.25% -0.25% MC
57 ENG Laurie Canter 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.55% 0.08% T5
58 FRA Clement Sordet 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.73% 0.3% T21
59 CAN Aaron Cockerill 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.38% -0.05% T53
60 ITA Andrea Pavan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.24% -0.19% WD
61 USA Sihwan Kim 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.24% -0.19% T63
62 ESP Nacho Elvira 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.24% -0.19% T44
63 WAL Oliver Farr 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.76% 1.38% MC
64 FRA Adrien Saddier 200 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.5% 1.13% T44
65 ENG Dale Whitnell 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.24% 0.86% T27
66 RSA Louis de Jager 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.59% 0.22% T15
67 ENG James Morrison 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.58% 0.2% T5
68 SWE Joel Sjoholm 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.42% 0.05% MC
69 SCO Stephen Gallacher 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.28% -0.1% MC
70 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.26% -0.12% MC
71 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.25% -0.13% T27
72 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.86% 0.53% MC
73 SWE Niklas Lemke 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.22% 0.91% 72
74 ESP Alejandro Canizares 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.91% 0.61% MC
75 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.56% 0.26% T53
76 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% -0.01% MC
77 IRL Paul Dunne 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.05% T73
78 ENG Richard McEvoy 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.24% -0.06% T63
79 AUS Jake McLeod 250 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.24% -0.06% T44
80 IND Shubhankar Sharma 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.23% -0.07% MC
81 SWE Philip Eriksson 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 1.28% 1.03% MC
82 NED Darius Van Driel 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.83% 0.58% T44
83 ENG Graeme Storm 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.6% 0.35% MC
84 FRA Gregory Bourdy 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% MC
85 RSA JC Ritchie 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.25% 0% MC
86 IND Shiv Kapur 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.24% -0.01% MC
87 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.24% -0.01% MC
88 ENG Lee Slattery 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% T68
89 NED Daan Huizing 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% T21
90 WAL Rhys Enoch 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% MC
91 SCO Craig Howie 325 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.31% 0.23% 2.63% 2.39% T21
92 RSA Jbe Kruger 325 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.31% 0.23% 0.24% 0.01% MC
93 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.78% 0.56% T76
94 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.66% 0.44% MC
95 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.31% 0.09% MC
96 SWE Anton Karlsson 350 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% T73
97 GER Hurly Long 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% MC
98 GER Bernd Ritthammer 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 1.1% 0.92% T21
99 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 400 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 1.02% 0.83% T27
100 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.35% 0.17% MC
101 FRA Damien Perrier 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.28% 0.09% T53
102 RSA Bryce Easton 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.23% 0.05% MC
103 SCO Ewen Ferguson 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.66% 0.51% MC
104 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% WD
105 IRL Gavin Moynihan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
106 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T27
107 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% WD
108 ENG Matthew Baldwin 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% T59
109 AUS Zach Murray 500 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% MC
110 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% T37
111 SCO David Law 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% T37
112 ESP Carlos Pigem 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.31% 0.18% MC
113 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% T21
114 ENG Ben Evans 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.26% 0.13% MC
115 ENG Oliver Wilson 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.24% 0.11% WD
116 NED Lars Van Meijel 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% T37
117 FRA Ugo Coussaud 750 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.17% MC
118 SCO Liam Johnston 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.26% 0.16% T15
119 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% MC
120 ENG Steven Tiley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% T63
121 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% MC
122 NZL Michael Campbell 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% MC
123 SCO Daniel Young 1000 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.18% T59
124 IMN Tom Gandy 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.18% MC
125 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.17% MC
126 WAL Phillip Price 1000 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.24% 0.17% MC
127 WAL Mark Pilkington 1500 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.24% 0.19% WD
128 GER Marcel Siem 0% 0% 0% 0% T27
129 ENG David Dixon 0% 0% 0% 0% T3
130 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 16.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 40.2% 25%
2 VBet 5 @ 1/4 46.7% 30.8%
3 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 47.6% 31.6%
4 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45% 32.1%
5 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 58.8% 33%
6 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 46.1% 33.2%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 62.6% 36.2%
8 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 62.6% 36.2%
9 Betway 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.1%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 51.6% 38.1%
11 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 39.1%
12 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 53.1% 39.6%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60.7% 46.5%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 63.5% 49%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 63.5% 49%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 140.9% 120%
17 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 194% 169.9%