Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 272.3

Total Profit: +172.2

Hero Open

30/07/2020 - 02/08/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NED Joost Luiten 14 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.07% 1.6% -3.47% MC
2 ENG Andy Sullivan 18 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4% 2.07% -1.93% T41
3 BEL Thomas Detry 18 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4% 0.98% -3.02% 2
4 NZL Ryan Fox 22 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.31% 3.06% -0.24% T15
5 RSA Justin Harding 25 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.93% 2.13% -0.79% MC
6 ENG Eddie Pepperell 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.93% 0.28% -2.65% WD
7 ITA Renato Paratore 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.62% 2.46% -0.16% T28 11.42
8 ENG Jordan L Smith 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 1.23% -1.01% MC
9 ENG Sam Horsfield 35 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.11% 2.01% -0.11% 1 9.2 +202.4
10 FRA Benjamin Hebert 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 1.7% -0.15% T34 8.08
11 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 40 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.86% 1.06% -0.79% T51
12 ENG Ross Fisher 40 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 0.72% -1.13% T22
13 FIN Mikko Korhonen 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 1.04% -0.61% T6
14 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 0.28% -1.38% MC
15 ENG Robert Rock 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.47% -0.02% T15 6.5
16 ITA Guido Migliozzi 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.04% -0.45% MC
17 ENG Matthew Jordan 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 0.92% -0.57% MC
18 ENG Aaron Rai 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 0.71% -0.78% T10
19 DEN Jeff Winther 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.36% 2.92% 1.56% MC 5.92
20 FRA Romain Langasque 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.36% 0.26% -1.1% T57
21 ENG Jack Senior 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 0.88% -0.36% MC
22 ENG Ashley Chesters 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 0.57% -0.68% T28
23 RSA Brandon Stone 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 2.55% 1.42% MC 4.95
24 FIN Kalle Samooja 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 1.32% 0.18% T34 4.95
25 SWE Alexander Bjork 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 1.24% 0.1% T3 (tied w/3) 4.95 +35.1
26 FRA Matthieu Pavon 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 0.94% -0.2% T6
27 SCO Connor Syme 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 0.94% -0.2% 68
28 SCO Scott Jamieson 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.91% -0.23% T10
29 AUS Jason Scrivener 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.88% -0.26% T47
30 SCO Richie Ramsay 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 0.26% -0.87% T22
31 AUS Minwoo Lee 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 2.22% 1.28% MC 4.09
32 FRA Adrien Saddier 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.81% 0.88% MC 4.09
33 ENG Chris Paisley 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.28% 0.34% T3 (tied w/3) 4.09 +34.8
34 ENG Oliver Fisher 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.19% 0.25% MC 4.09
35 RSA Zander Lombard 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.12% 0.18% MC 4.09
36 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.71% -0.23% MC
37 SCO Calum Hill 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.53% -0.41% MC
38 ITA Andrea Pavan 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.26% -0.58% MC
39 SCO Marc Warren 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 5.45% 4.7% MC 3.28
40 SWE Rikard Karlberg 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.94% 0.19% T41 3.28
41 FRA Clement Sordet 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.85% 0.1% T41 3.28
42 USA Johannes Veerman 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.63% -0.12% T28 3.28
43 ENG David Horsey 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.52% -0.23% T34
44 USA Julian Suri 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.31% -0.45% MC
45 ZIM Scott Vincent 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.28% -0.48% MC
46 FRA Alexander Levy 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.26% -0.49% T47
47 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.26% -0.49% T41
48 FRA Joel Stalter 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.99% 0.39% T28 2.63
49 USA John Catlin 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.88% 0.27% T51 2.63
50 SCO Grant Forrest 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.72% 0.12% T34 2.63
51 FRA Antoine Rozner 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.72% 0.11% T10 2.63
52 IRL Paul Dunne 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.31% -0.3% MC
53 ENG Richard Bland 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.28% -0.33% T22
54 ESP Adrian Otaegui 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.26% -0.34% MC
55 ESP Nacho Elvira 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.26% -0.34% MC
56 RSA Dean Burmester 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.26% -0.34% MC
57 ENG Matthew Southgate 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.26% -0.34% T22
58 SWE Joakim Lagergren 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.26% -0.34% WD
59 NED Wil Besseling 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 1.19% 0.65% T34
60 ENG Dale Whitnell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.51% 1.01% T51
61 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.44% 0.94% MC
62 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.91% 0.41% T15
63 POL Adrian Meronk 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.49% -0.02% MC
64 ENG Lee Slattery 150 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.28% -0.23% T57
65 USA Sean Crocker 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.27% -0.23% T15
66 SWE Niklas Lemke 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 1.39% 0.96% T41
67 ENG Graeme Storm 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.23% 0.8% MC
68 FRA Robin Roussel 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.71% 0.27% MC
69 RSA Louis de Jager 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.3% -0.13% T51
70 NED Daan Huizing 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.29% -0.14% MC
71 NIR Cormac Sharvin 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.27% -0.16% T47
72 ITA Edoardo Molinari 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.26% -0.17% MC
73 USA Sihwan Kim 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.26% -0.17% T47
74 ENG Steven Brown 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.26% -0.17% T65
75 GER Marcel Schneider 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 5.49% 5.11% T57
76 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.04% 0.66% MC
77 ENG Callum Shinkwin 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.86% 0.48% T28
78 ENG Ben Stow 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.79% 0.41% T34
79 NED Darius Van Driel 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.77% 0.39% T51
80 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.66% 0.28% T41
81 ENG James Morrison 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.56% 0.18% MC
82 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.31% -0.07% 71
83 ENG Matthew Baldwin 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.3% -0.07% MC
84 GER Maximilian Kieffer 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.27% -0.11% T6
85 ENG Laurie Canter 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.26% -0.12% T10
86 IND Shubhankar Sharma 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.26% -0.12% MC
87 WAL Jamie Donaldson 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.26% -0.08% T15
88 FRA Julien Guerrier 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.26% -0.08% T15
89 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 2.35% 2.04% MC
90 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.76% 0.46% MC
91 RSA Haydn Porteous 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0% MC
92 SCO David Law 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% MC
93 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% MC
94 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% MC
95 POR Pedro Figueiredo 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% MC
96 ENG Toby Tree 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% WD
97 AUS Jake McLeod 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.89% 0.64% MC
98 AUS Maverick Antcliff 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% 67
99 CAN Aaron Cockerill 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% MC
100 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.01% T63
101 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.26% 0.01% MC
102 ENG Richard McEvoy 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.26% 0.01% T57
103 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.26% 0.01% MC
104 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.77% 0.55% T10
105 SWE Joel Sjoholm 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.33% 0.11% T22
106 ENG Ross McGowan 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.3% 0.09% MC
107 ENG Garrick Porteous 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% T22
108 DEN Thomas Bjorn 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% 69
109 ENG Ben Evans 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% T51
110 IRL Gavin Moynihan 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.1% MC
111 RSA Bryce Easton 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.28% 0.09% MC
112 ENG Oliver Wilson 400 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% MC
113 ENG Steven Tiley 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T65
114 GER Max Schmitt 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
115 NED Lars Van Meijel 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
116 WAL Rhys Enoch 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% T57
117 SCO Ewen Ferguson 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
118 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
119 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
120 ENG Marco Penge 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
121 ENG David Coupland 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T15
122 ESP Carlos Pigem 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T63
123 ENG David Howell 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
124 WAL Oliver Farr 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% T3
125 POR Ricardo Santos 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% T57
126 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
127 NZL Michael Campbell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% 70
128 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
129 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T6
130 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 ENG Paul Hendriksen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 52.5% 22.6%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.8% 24.6%
3 Betway 7 @ 1/5 49.3% 24.9%
4 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 39.2% 26.8%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 52% 27.2%
6 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 52% 27.2%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 52.8% 27.9%
8 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 28.6%
9 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 28.6%
10 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 28.6%
11 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 41.6% 29%
12 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 57% 31.3%
13 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 44.2% 31.4%
14 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 31.4%
15 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 44.6% 31.7%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 49.3% 36%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 37.3%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 37.3%