Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 38.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 256.1

Total Profit: +156

Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open

01/10/2020 - 04/10/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.9% 1.15% -4.75% 2
2 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.45% 3.8% -1.65% T42
3 BEL Thomas Pieters 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.37% 2.41% -0.97% MC
4 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.08% 1.1% -1.98% T48
5 ENG Matt Wallace 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.08% 0.98% -2.1% T30
6 GER Martin Kaymer 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 2.59% -0.13% MC
7 RSA Erik van Rooyen 28 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 1.74% -0.7% T6
8 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.08% 2.29% 0.2% T19 9.18
9 RSA George Coetzee 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 6.47% 4.51% T59 8.67
10 ENG Ian Poulter 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 3.17% 1.2% T6 (tied w/3) 8.67 +34.7
11 ENG Andy Sullivan 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 3.09% 1.12% T26 8.67
12 ENG Sam Horsfield 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 2.06% 0.09% MC
13 BEL Thomas Detry 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 1.59% -0.38% T30
14 AUS Lucas Herbert 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 1.44% -0.52% T4
15 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.97% 1.1% -0.87% MC
16 FRA Romain Langasque 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 2.39% 0.85% MC 6.79
17 SCO Robert MacIntyre 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 1.53% -0.01% T14
18 USA John Catlin 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.87% 0.48% MC 6.12
19 SWE Joakim Lagergren 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.28% -0.11% T63
20 FRA Benjamin Hebert 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 0.63% -0.75% T19
21 ENG Andrew Johnston 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.26% 0.42% -0.85% WD
22 FRA Victor Perez 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 0.4% -0.86% T14
23 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 1.18% 0.02% T42
24 ENG Jordan L Smith 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.16% 0.5% -0.66% T36
25 ENG Aaron Rai 66 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.45% 0.39% 1 4.66 +189.2
26 ESP Jorge Campillo 66 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.4% 0.35% T48 4.66
27 ENG Danny Willett 66 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.7% -0.36% MC
28 THA Jazz Janewattananond 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.68% -0.38% MC
29 MAS Gavin Green 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.56% -0.49% T42
30 CHN Hao Tong Li 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.52% -0.54% T14
31 NED Joost Luiten 66 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.49% -0.57% T19
32 ITA Renato Paratore 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 2.71% 1.71% MC 4.4
33 RSA Justin Harding 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 1.4% 0.4% MC 4.4
34 SCO Connor Syme 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.94% -0.06% T48
35 RSA Brandon Stone 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.65% -0.34% T19
36 AUS Jason Scrivener 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.55% -0.45% MC
37 ENG Paul Waring 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.45% -0.54% WD
38 RSA Garrick Higgo 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 2.5% 1.63% T26 3.86
39 ENG Laurie Canter 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.71% 0.84% MC 3.86
40 FIN Sami Valimaki 80 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.32% 0.45% T63 3.86
41 NZL Ryan Fox 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.69% -0.18% MC
42 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.23% -0.65% MC
43 ITA Guido Migliozzi 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.49% -0.29% MC
44 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.44% -0.34% MC
45 SCO Calum Hill 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.41% -0.37% T63
46 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 100 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 2.38% 1.68% T48 3.09
47 ESP Adrian Otaegui 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 1.08% 0.38% T42 3.09
48 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% T56 3.09
49 ENG Chris Paisley 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% MC 3.09
50 RSA Dean Burmester 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.54% -0.16% MC
51 ENG Eddie Pepperell 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 0.22% -0.41% T9
52 ENG Robert Rock 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.33% 0.77% 3 2.48 +32.2
53 SWE Alexander Bjork 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.81% 0.25% T19 2.48
54 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.76% 0.2% T36 2.48
55 FIN Mikko Korhonen 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.68% 0.12% T48 2.48
56 SWE Marcus Kinhult 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.59% 0.02% T6
57 USA Sean Crocker 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.47% -0.1% T36
58 ENG Matthew Southgate 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.38% -0.18% T9
59 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.28% -0.28% MC
60 NIR Graeme McDowell 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.27% -0.29% MC
61 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.21% -0.35% MC
62 ENG Richard Bland 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.58% 0.11% MC
63 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.51% 0.04% T30
64 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.5% 0.03% MC
65 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.44% -0.03% MC
66 GER Sebastian Heisele 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.41% -0.06% MC
67 ESP Adria Arnaus 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.34% -0.13% T26
68 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.19% -0.28% T9
69 KOR Jeunghun Wang 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.19% -0.28% T14
70 RSA Shaun Norris 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.19% -0.28% MC
71 AUS Maverick Antcliff 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.75% 0.35% T36
72 ENG Steven Brown 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.66% 0.26% MC
73 DEN Jeff Winther 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% T36
74 SCO Grant Forrest 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.34% -0.06% T19
75 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.2% -0.2% MC
76 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.72% 0.36% T59
77 ENG David Horsey 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.63% 0.28% T14
78 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.62% 0.27% T30
79 USA Julian Suri 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.28% -0.07% T36
80 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.25% -0.1% T30
81 ESP Nacho Elvira 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.24% -0.12% MC
82 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.23% -0.12% T9
83 FRA Julien Guerrier 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.47% 0.16% MC
84 SCO Marc Warren 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.96% 0.67% T4
85 RSA Justin Walters 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.78% 0.5% MC
86 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% MC
87 FRA Matthieu Pavon 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.64% 0.36% 55
88 ENG James Morrison 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.55% 0.27% 62
89 ENG Ashley Chesters 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.51% 0.23% MC
90 AUS Wade Ormsby 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.41% 0.12% T19
91 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% MC
92 FRA Alexander Levy 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.22% -0.06% MC
93 IRL Padraig Harrington 250 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.21% -0.07% T9
94 ITA Nino Bertasio 250 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.21% -0.08% MC
95 SCO Ewen Ferguson 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.77% 0.53% T30
96 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.44% 0.21% T59
97 ITA Andrea Pavan 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.24% 0% MC
98 CHN Wu Ashun 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.19% -0.05% T48
99 ITA Edoardo Molinari 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.18% -0.05% T56
100 SCO Stephen Gallacher 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.21% 0.01% MC
101 RSA Thomas Aiken 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% MC
102 ENG Chris Wood 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.19% -0.01% 66
103 IND Shubhankar Sharma 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% T26
104 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.7% 0.56% MC
105 SCO David Law 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% MC
106 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% MC
107 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% MC
108 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% MC
109 DEN Thomas Bjorn 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
110 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
111 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% DQ
112 ITA Francesco Laporta 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% T42
113 FRA Joel Stalter 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
114 ENG Graeme Storm 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.64% 0.52% MC
115 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.16% MC
116 SCO Paul Lawrie 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
117 ENG Oliver Wilson 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
118 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
119 SWE Peter Hanson 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
120 SCO Paul O'Hara 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% MC
121 ENG David Howell 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.25% 0.21% T56
122 NZL Michael Campbell 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.2% 0.16% MC
123 SCO Craig Lee 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.16% T42
124 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T48
125 SCO Neil Fenwick 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 38.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 56.9% 21.5%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 26%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.8% 26%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 26.3%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.5%
6 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 55.7% 30.3%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 31%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 61.9% 35.6%
9 VBet 5 @ 1/4 53.8% 37.1%
10 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.2% 37.7%
11 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.2%
12 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.2%
13 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 60.2% 42.9%
14 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 60.2% 42.9%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 60.2% 42.9%
16 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 60.5% 43.2%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 57.6% 43.6%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 62% 47.7%