Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 34.2

Total Profit: -66

Alfred Dunhill Championship

28/11/2019 - 01/12/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.74% 4.77% -0.97% MC
2 RSA Brandon Stone 16 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.39% 1.22% -3.16% T59
3 ENG Eddie Pepperell 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.92% 3.02% -0.9% T19
4 RSA George Coetzee 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.92% 1.61% -2.32% T24
5 RSA Branden Grace 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.92% 0.93% -2.99% T3
6 RSA Charl Schwartzel 20 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.55% 0.27% -3.28% T3
7 RSA Justin Harding 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 2.13% -1.11% T7
8 RSA Zander Lombard 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 1.86% -1.38% T7
9 ENG Ross Fisher 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.24% 1.4% -1.84% T69
10 RSA Richard Sterne 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.57% 0.98% -1.59% T14
11 SCO Calum Hill 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.82% 1.92% 0.1% 13 8.06
12 ITA Francesco Laporta 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.82% 1.74% -0.08% MC 8.06
13 RSA Dean Burmester 40 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.82% 1.07% -0.75% MC
14 ENG Matthew Jordan 40 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.82% 0.81% -1.01% T49
15 SWE Alexander Bjork 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.46% 1.07% -0.39% MC
16 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.33% 0.74% -0.59% 1
17 RSA Jaco Ahlers 60 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.22% 0.27% -0.95% T24
18 POL Adrian Meronk 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.94% 0.82% T42 4.93
19 ENG Richard Bland 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.44% 0.33% T42 4.93
20 RSA Justin Walters 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.32% 0.21% MC 4.93
21 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.64% -0.47% T14
22 ENG Oliver Wilson 66 (William Hill: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.11% 0.63% -0.48% T61
23 CHI Hugo Leon 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 1.45% 0.4% MC 4.66
24 ITA Renato Paratore 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.46% 0.54% T19 4.08
25 DEN Jeff Winther 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.19% 0.27% T49 4.08
26 ENG Oliver Fisher 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.08% 0.16% MC 4.08
27 SWE Niklas Lemke 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.76% -0.16% T69 4.08
28 SCO Connor Syme 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.56% -0.36% T11
29 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.55% -0.37% T36
30 ITA Edoardo Molinari 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 1.23% 0.41% T33 3.63
31 RSA Ernie Els 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 0.34% -0.48% T64
32 RSA Oliver Bekker 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.82% 0.25% -0.57% 71
33 NIR Cormac Sharvin 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.64% 0.91% MC 3.27
34 ENG James Morrison 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.11% 0.37% T55 3.27
35 ENG Jack Singh Brar 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.8% 0.06% T36 3.27
36 RSA Darren Fichardt 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.53% -0.21% MC 3.27
37 SCO David Drysdale 100 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.44% -0.3% T36
38 RSA Thomas Aiken 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.4% -0.34% T33
39 RSA Hennie Otto 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.27% -0.46% T49
40 ENG Jack Senior 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 2.54% 1.95% MC 2.63
41 FRA Robin Roussel 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.53% 0.93% T14 2.63
42 WAL Oliver Farr 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.27% 0.68% MC 2.63
43 ENG Ben Stow 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.16% 0.57% MC 2.63
44 POR Ricardo Santos 125 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.12% 0.53% MC 2.63
45 FRA Julien Guerrier 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 1.12% 0.52% MC 2.63
46 NED Wil Besseling 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.08% 0.49% T3 (tied w/3) 2.63 +34.2
47 FRA Antoine Rozner 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.07% 0.48% T36 2.63
48 ENG Lee Slattery 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.03% 0.44% T64 2.63
49 RSA Haydn Porteous 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.87% 0.28% T55 2.63
50 AUS Jake McLeod 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.82% 0.23% MC 2.63
51 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.65% 0.05% T36 2.63
52 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.37% -0.22% MC
53 USA Johannes Veerman 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.37% -0.22% T7
54 RSA Louis de Jager 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 0.85% 0.32% MC
55 ESP Adrian Otaegui 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 0.42% -0.11% T33
56 FRA Matthieu Pavon 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 1.29% 0.8% T42
57 RSA Bryce Easton 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.2% 0.7% MC
58 FRA Gregory Havret 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 1.1% 0.61% T49
59 RSA JC Ritchie 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.89% 0.39% T55
60 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.83% 0.34% MC
61 NED Darius Van Driel 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.73% 0.24% MC
62 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.54% 0.05% T24
63 RSA Neil Schietekat 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.29% -0.21% MC
64 RSA Wilco Nienaber 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.28% -0.21% T24
65 RSA Thriston Lawrence 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.27% -0.23% T49
66 RSA Keith Horne 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.25% -0.24% T24
67 RSA Garrick Higgo 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.24% -0.25% MC
68 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.97% 0.54% MC
69 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.8% 0.38% MC
70 RSA Jacques Blaauw 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.27% -0.15% T36
71 BRA Adilson da Silva 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.27% -0.16% T61
72 WAL Rhys Enoch 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 1.19% 0.82% MC
73 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.38% 0.01% T42
74 RSA Trevor Fisher Jr 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.1% MC
75 RSA Jean Hugo 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.1% MC
76 RSA Jean-Paul Strydom 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.1% MC
77 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.1% MC
78 ENG Laurie Canter 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.65% 0.35% T14
79 ESP Carlos Pigem 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.57% 0.28% 68
80 SCO Grant Forrest 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.53% 0.23% T55
81 ENG Garrick Porteous 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.49% 0.2% T11
82 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.49% 0.19% MC
83 FRA Clement Sordet 250 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.48% 0.18% T24
84 ENG Toby Tree 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.35% 0.05% T64
85 ENG Richard McEvoy 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.34% 0.04% MC
86 RSA Ockie Strydom 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.02% MC
87 RSA Martin Rohwer 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.02% T61
88 RSA Jake Roos 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% MC
89 RSA Keenan Davidse 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.27% -0.03% T64
90 FIN Sami Valimaki 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% -0.04% MC
91 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 0.99% 0.72% T42
92 POR Jose-Filipe Lima 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 1.02% 0.78% MC
93 NED Lars Van Meijel 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.58% 0.33% T24
94 GRE Peter Karmis 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.54% 0.29% MC
95 RSA Anthony Michael 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.29% 0.05% MC
96 ENG Steve Surry 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.03% MC
97 SCO Doug McGuigan 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.03% MC
98 RSA Daniel Greene 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.03% T24
99 RSA Ruan Conradie 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.03% MC
100 RSA Michael Palmer 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% MC
101 ENG Jack Harrison 300 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.25% 0.01% T24
102 GER Marcel Siem 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.58% 0.36% MC
103 RSA Luke Jerling 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% MC
104 RSA James Du Preez Jnr 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% MC
105 ENG Dale Whitnell 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.99% 0.8% MC
106 ENG Marcus Armitage 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.33% 0.15% T42
107 CHI Matias Calderon 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.11% MC
108 RSA Ruan de Smidt 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.09% MC
109 ZAM Madalitso Muthiya 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.09% MC
110 RSA Clinton Grobler 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.09% MC
111 RSA Merrick Bremner 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.08% MC
112 SWE Philip Eriksson 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.71% 0.56% MC
113 DEN Thomas Bjorn 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.51% 0.36% MC
114 SCO David Law 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.38% 0.23% T59
115 ENG David Howell 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.37% 0.22% WD
116 POR Pedro Figueiredo 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.36% 0.21% T42
117 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T14
118 RSA Garth Mulroy 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% MC
119 RSA JJ Senekal 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% MC
120 RSA Jaco Prinsloo 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% MC
121 RSA MJ Viljoen 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% T7
122 RSA Toto Thimba 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% MC
123 RSA Alex Haindl 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T22
124 RSA Lyle Rowe 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% MC
125 RSA Vaughn Groenewald 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% MC
126 RSA Jake Redman 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% MC
127 RSA Tyrone Ferreira 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
128 ZIM Mark Williams 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
129 RSA Riekus Nortje 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
130 RSA Andre De Decker 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
131 RSA Anton Haig 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
132 RSA Deon Germishuys 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.27% 0.18% MC
133 RSA Heinrich Bruiners 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
134 RSA Kyle Barker 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
135 POR Stephen Ferreira 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
136 RSA Combrinck Smit 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.27% 0.22% MC
137 RSA Jacques de Villiers 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.27% 0.22% MC
138 RSA Christiaan Basson 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% T19
139 ZIM Benjamin Follett-Smith 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.27% 0.22% MC
140 RSA Chris Swanepoel 1750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.06% 0.04% 0.27% 0.23% MC
141 RSA Callum Mowat 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.24% MC
142 RSA Tyrone Ryan 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.24% MC
143 RSA Pieter Moolman 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.24% MC
144 RSA Dylan Kok 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
145 RSA Jacquin Hess 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
146 RSA Teaghan Gauche 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
147 RSA Yubin Jung 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
148 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% 6
149 SWE Joel Sjoholm 0% 0% 0% 0% 2
150 RSA Rourke Van der Spuy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T49
152 RSA Dylan Naidoo 0% 0% 0% 0% T22
153 RSA Rupert Kaminski 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 RSA Caylum Boon 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 RSA Keelan Van Wyk 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 RSA Basil Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.3% 22.5%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.8% 27.7%
3 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 31.5%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 57.9% 32.2%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 58.8% 32.9%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 59.6% 33.7%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33.9%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 33.9%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60.5% 34.4%
10 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 54.3% 37.6%
11 Coral 7 @ 1/5 67.5% 40.3%
12 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 59.8% 42.5%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 59.8% 42.5%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 59.8% 42.5%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 59.8% 42.5%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56.9% 43%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 58.3% 44.2%
18 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 62% 44.5%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 59% 45%
20 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 62.7% 45.1%