Betting Market Analysis for Pebble Beach
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 42 minutes ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 6/1 | 6.58% | -8.1% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 15/1 | 3.72% | -2.4% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 19/1 | 2.73% | -2.17% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 22/1 | 1.62% | -2.7% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 22/1 | 1.54% | -2.78% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 2.83% | -0.36% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 2.28% | -0.91% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 34/1 | 1.8% | -1.03% | |
| 9 |
| Jason Day | 28 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.53% ≈ 38/1 | 1.12% | -1.41% | |
| 10 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 40 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.79% ≈ 55/1 | 2% | 0.21% | |
| 11 |
| Sam Burns | 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.79% ≈ 55/1 | 1.38% | -0.41% | |
| 12 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 40 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.79% ≈ 55/1 | 1.22% | -0.57% | |
| 13 |
| Keegan Bradley | 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.6% ≈ 62/1 | 1.74% | 0.15% | |
| 14 |
| Corey Conners | 50 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.44% ≈ 68/1 | 1.1% | -0.34% | |
| 15 |
| Max Greyserman | 55 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 1.28% | -0.03% | |
| 16 |
| Maverick McNealy | 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 1.19% | -0.12% | |
| 17 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 60 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.2% ≈ 82/1 | 1.87% | 0.66% | |
| 18 |
| Will Zalatoris | 60 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.2% ≈ 82/1 | 0.74% | -0.46% | |
| 19 |
| Wyndham Clark | 66 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.1% ≈ 90/1 | 2.14% | 1.04% | |
| 20 |
| Viktor Hovland | 66 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.1% ≈ 90/1 | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 21 |
| Shane Lowry | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.1% ≈ 90/1 | 1.33% | 0.24% | |
| 22 |
| Tony Finau | 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.1% ≈ 90/1 | 1.22% | 0.12% | |
| 23 |
| Woohyun Kim | 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.1% ≈ 90/1 | 0.07% | -1.03% | |
| 24 |
| Sepp Straka | 70 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.03% ≈ 96/1 | 1.76% | 0.72% | |
| 25 |
| Russell Henley | 70 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.03% ≈ 96/1 | 1.4% | 0.37% | |
| 26 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.03% ≈ 96/1 | 1.38% | 0.35% | |
| 27 |
| Denny McCarthy | 70 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.03% ≈ 96/1 | 1.02% | -0.02% | |
| 28 |
| Sahith Theegala | 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.83% | 0.93% | |
| 29 |
| Adam Scott | 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.52% | 0.62% | |
| 30 |
| Nick Taylor | 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.4% | 0.49% | |
| 31 |
| JT Poston | 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.26% | 0.35% | |
| 32 |
| Harris English | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.25% | 0.34% | |
| 33 |
| Thomas Detry | 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 1.04% | 0.13% | |
| 34 |
| Tom Hoge | 80 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 0.92% | 0.01% | |
| 35 |
| Beau Hossler | 80 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 0.82% | -0.08% | |
| 36 |
| J.J Spaun | 80 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 0.82% | -0.09% | |
| 37 |
| Harry Hall | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.91% ≈ 109/1 | 0.76% | -0.15% | |
| 38 |
| Byeong Hun An | 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.31% | 0.5% | |
| 39 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.11% | 0.3% | |
| 40 |
| Cameron Young | 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.09% | 0.28% | |
| 41 |
| Cameron Davis | 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.73% ≈ 137/1 | 1.09% | 0.36% | |
| 42 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.73% ≈ 137/1 | 1.07% | 0.34% | |
| 43 |
| Max Homa | 100 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.73% ≈ 137/1 | 0.97% | 0.24% | |
| 44 |
| Jordan Spieth | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.73% ≈ 137/1 | 0.65% | -0.07% | |
| 45 |
| Aaron Rai | 110 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.66% ≈ 150/1 | 1.55% | 0.89% | |
| 46 |
| Billy Horschel | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.73% | 1.15% | |
| 47 |
| Austin Eckroat | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.23% | 0.64% | |
| 48 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 125 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.21% | 0.63% | |
| 49 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.21% | 0.63% | |
| 50 |
| Davis Thompson | 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.12% | 0.54% | |
| 51 |
| Nick Dunlap | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.07% | 0.48% | |
| 52 |
| Eric Cole | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1.06% | 0.48% | |
| 53 |
| Minwoo Lee | 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 1% | 0.42% | |
| 54 |
| Benjamin Griffin | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 0.97% | 0.39% | |
| 55 |
| Siwoo Kim | 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 0.88% | 0.3% | |
| 56 |
| Samuel Stevens | 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 0.81% | 0.23% | |
| 57 |
| Mark Hubbard | 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 0.69% | 0.11% | |
| 58 |
| Rickie Fowler | 125 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.58% ≈ 171/1 | 0.68% | 0.1% | |
| 59 |
| Lee Hodges | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 205/1 | 0.79% | 0.3% | |
| 60 |
| Taylor Moore | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 205/1 | 0.79% | 0.3% | |
| 61 |
| Andrew Novak | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 205/1 | 0.77% | 0.28% | |
| 62 |
| Keith Mitchell | 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 205/1 | 0.66% | 0.17% | |
| 63 |
| Gary Woodland | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 205/1 | 0.33% | -0.16% | |
| 64 |
| Brian Harman | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 1.33% | 0.91% | |
| 65 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 1% | 0.58% | |
| 66 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 0.98% | 0.56% | |
| 67 |
| Justin Rose | 175 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 0.92% | 0.5% | |
| 68 |
| Chris Kirk | 175 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 0.9% | 0.48% | |
| 69 |
| Doug Ghim | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 0.68% | 0.27% | |
| 70 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 175 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 0.65% | 0.24% | |
| 71 |
| Lucas Glover | 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 273/1 | 1.04% | 0.67% | |
| 72 |
| Justin Lower | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 273/1 | 0.81% | 0.45% | |
| 73 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 200 (AK Bets: 5 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 273/1 | 0.76% | 0.4% | |
| 74 |
| Kevin Yuan | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 273/1 | 0.07% | -0.29% | |
| 75 |
| Adam Hadwin | 225 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.32% ≈ 307/1 | 0.83% | 0.51% | |
| 76 |
| Seamus Power | 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.29% ≈ 341/1 | 0.51% | 0.22% | |
| 77 |
| Jake Knappe | 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.24% ≈ 409/1 | 0.62% | 0.38% | |
| 78 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 350 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 477/1 | 1.29% | 1.08% | |
| 79 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 350 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 477/1 | 0.79% | 0.58% | |
| 80 |
| Brendon Todd | 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 681/1 | 0.59% | 0.45% | |
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 24.9 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.2 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 51.5% | 23.9% |
| 2 | AK Bets | 5 @ 1/5 | 27.3% | 24.3% |
| 3 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 53% | 25% |
| 4 | 888Sport | 7 @ 1/5 | 53% | 25% |
| 5 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.2% | 25.5% |
| 6 | BoyleSports | 10 @ 1/5 | 91.5% | 25.9% |
| 7 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 54.6% | 26.3% |
| 8 | Ladbrokes | 8 @ 1/5 | 72.4% | 30.3% |
| 9 | Coral | 8 @ 1/5 | 72.4% | 30.3% |
| 10 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 47% | 30.8% |
| 11 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.5% | 31.2% |
| 12 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.5% | 31.2% |
| 13 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.9% | 31.4% |
| 14 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.9% | 31.4% |
| 15 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.9% | 31.4% |
| 16 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.3% | 31.8% |
| 17 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.3% | 35.5% |
| 18 | LiveScore Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.3% | 35.5% |
| 19 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.3% | 35.5% |
| 20 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.6% | 38.4% |
| 21 | BetGoodwin | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.6% | 38.4% |
| 22 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.7% | 38.6% |
| 23 | VBet | 4 @ 1/4 | 46% | 43.5% |