Market Analysis
Bookie Overround: 11.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 22.4 %
Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %
Results
Total Staked: 100.1
Total Won: 225.9
Total Profit: +125.8
| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | Pos. Pos. | Stake | Returns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1.05 (bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 48.78% | 41.26% | 14.89% | -26.37% | 3 | |||
| 2 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2.2 (bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 31.25% | 26.43% | 9.97% | -16.46% | 13 | |||
| 3 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 12 (AK Bets: 3 @ 1/5) | 7.69% | 6.51% | 2.93% | -3.58% | 16 | |||
| 4 |
| Rory McIlroy | 22 (William Hill: 3 @ 1/4) | 4.35% | 3.68% | 4.5% | 0.82% | 12 | 16.04 | ||
| 5 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 22 (Skybet: 3 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.68% | 4.35% | 0.67% | 19 | 16.04 | ||
| 6 |
| Collin Morikawa | 33 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.49% | 4.84% | 2.36% | 1 | 10.86 | +225.9 | |
| 7 |
| Keegan Bradley | 40 (Unibet: 3 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2.06% | 2.62% | 0.56% | 27 | 9 | ||
| 8 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 40 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 2.06% | 2.22% | 0.16% | 19 | 9 | ||
| 9 |
| Sam Burns | 45 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.84% | 3.41% | 1.57% | 13 | 8.02 | ||
| 10 |
| Wyndham Clark | 55 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.51% | 3.32% | 1.81% | 8 | 6.59 | ||
| 11 |
| Viktor Hovland | 80 (Skybet: 3 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 1.04% | 1.62% | 0.58% | 8 | 4.56 | ||
| 12 |
| Adam Scott | 100 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.84% | 3.53% | 2.69% | 5 | 3.66 | ||
| 13 |
| Tony Finau | 100 (AK Bets: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.84% | 2.78% | 1.94% | 24 | 3.66 | ||
| 14 |
| Sungjae Im | 100 (AK Bets: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.84% | 2.68% | 1.84% | 6 | 3.66 | ||
| 15 |
| Russell Henley | 110 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.76% | 3.04% | 2.27% | 4 | 3.33 | ||
| 16 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 130 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.76% | 0.65% | 3.12% | 2.47% | 16 | 2.82 | ||
| 17 |
| Shane Lowry | 130 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.76% | 0.65% | 2.88% | 2.23% | 8 | 2.82 | ||
| 18 |
| Sahith Theegala | 200 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.42% | 2.28% | 1.85% | 2 | |||
| 19 |
| Billy Horschel | 250 (Skybet: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.34% | 2.56% | 2.22% | 23 | |||
| 20 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 275 (bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 0.36% | 0.31% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 16 | |||
| 21 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 300 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.28% | 3.41% | 3.13% | 24 | |||
| 22 |
| Byeong Hun An | 300 (Spreadex: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.28% | 1.81% | 1.52% | 21 | |||
| 23 |
| Justin Thomas | 300 (William Hill: 3 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.28% | 1.65% | 1.36% | 7 | |||
| 24 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 400 (bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.21% | 2.57% | 2.35% | 8 | |||
| 25 |
| Aaron Rai | 500 (Skybet: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.17% | 3.29% | 3.12% | 21 | |||
| 26 |
| Sepp Straka | 500 (QuinnBet: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.17% | 2.14% | 1.97% | 27 | |||
| 27 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 750 (Betfred: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.11% | 1.74% | 1.62% | 29 | |||
| 28 |
| Tom Hoge | 750 (Betfred: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.11% | 1.46% | 1.35% | 29 | |||
| 29 |
| Chris Kirk | 750 (Skybet: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.11% | 1.37% | 1.26% | 24 | |||
| 30 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 1000 (Betfred: 3 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% | 1.14% | 1.06% | 15 | |||
Market Analysis
Overround of best available: 11.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 22.4 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AK Bets | 3 @ 1/5 | 13.6% | 29% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 4 @ 1/4 | 35.1% | 30.4% |
| 3 | 888Sport | 3 @ 1/4 | 22.6% | 31.2% |