GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
Which algorithm to choose?
Algorithm 1 - Traditional
- Tips around 5 golfers per event; high risk, high reward
Pros
- Highest return on investment over the long term
- Potential big wins
Cons
- Could go a long time without a win
- High risk means a bigger starting bank is requried (or smaller stakes per event)
Algorithm 2 - Diversify
- Tips around 17 - 27 golfers per event; spreading the stakes to reduce risk
Pros
- Safer, so you can stake a greater percentage of your bank per event (or start with a smaller bank)
- More consistent returns so you can take advantage of compound interest
Cons
- Requires more effort to place bets on so many golfers
Algorithm 1 focuses on maximising the ROI
Tip 8% of the field (by probability)
At £10 per point.
As a % of inital bank.
From Jan 1st '18 till now
At £10 per point.
Percent of events with positive return.
Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.
Algorithm 2 balances the ROI and the Strike Rate
Tip 22% of the field (by probability)
21.9 Tips per event
At £10 per point.
As a % of inital bank.
From Jan 1st '18 till now
At £10 per point.
Percent of events with positive return.
Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.
Compound Interest
Notice the difference in 'smoothness' between the two graphs. This smoothness defines how frequently we can safely increase our stakes and reinvest our winnings, and thus take advantage of the wonders of compound interest.
The smoothness is quantified in the 'Risk' metirc.
The 'risk' is defined by maximum loss potential relative to the amount staked per event and starting bank. e.g. Starting with a bank of 100 points, a risk of 20 would mean we should only stake 5 points per event (100/20) with roughly a 95% chance of never losing the entire bank. Note: the risk metric is calculated over thousands of iterations with shuffled event orders taking the max from each and then 2 standard deviations above the mean of these maximums.
Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it - Einstein
The below graphs simulate increasing the stakes when the bank balance is high enough to safely do so. Because Algorithm 2 is safer, we can increase stakes more quickly with this algorithm.
Algorithm 1 with compund interest
At £10 per point.
As a % of inital bank.
From Jan 1st '18 till now
At £10 per point.
Percent of events with positive return.
Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.
Algorithm 2 with compund interest
At £10 per point.
As a % of inital bank.
From Jan 1st '18 till now
At £10 per point.
Percent of events with positive return.
Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.